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War prediction markets are a national-security threat

theatlantic.com

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Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#101

Post by DANmode »

_menelaus wrote: post #79
thephyber wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The White House has admitted that Israel had actionable intelligence that several of the Iranian political leadership were having a physical meeting together and they decided to attack to decapitate the government. The US decided to attack Iranian capabilities preemptively to reduce the inevitable response to US military, embassies, and allies in the region.

[flagged]

You think that type of network stays within one administration?

Political sex blackmail has been a problem.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#102

Post by pstuart »

DANmode wrote: post #101
_menelaus wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

You think that type of network stays within one administration? Political sex blackmail has been a problem.

Absolutely, but the current administration is a whole new level of WTF. I've followed US politics for half a century and this feels like through the looking glass stuff.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#103

Post by DANmode »

pstuart wrote: post #102
DANmode wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think that type of network stays within one administration? Political sex blackmail has been a problem.

Absolutely, but the current administration is a whole new level of WTF. I've followed US politics for half a century and this feels like through the looking glass stuff.

Something’s definitely fucked.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#104

Post by PaulRobinson »

abustamam wrote: post #78

For whatever it's worth, Kalshi refused to pay out on the bet because Khomenei died, and they refuse to allow people to profit off of death so they returned everyone's bets. https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268 While I think this policy removes one avenue of incentivizing death of real people (many bets involving real people can probably be resolved by some sort of assassination attempt), I ho…

Just this afternoon I was reading an account of one of the earliest known betting ledgers, the "Betting Book" at White's, a private member's club in London. In the 18th century, one of the most common bets taken up by members was which Lord or nobleman would outlive another. One bet had a note under it that the wager was not settled up by the bettors because the subjects both died of suicide within a few months of each other.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#105

Post by anshabs »

Zigurd wrote: post #44
amelius wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah we should ban derivatives too.

I hope everyone reading this realizes that commodity futures are useful and easily distinguished from prediction markets, which are a ruse to get around restrictions on gambling.

Incase you missed this in the Epstein files:

> This is the way the jew make money.. and made a fortune the past ten years, selling short the shipping futures, let the goyim deal in the real world.

One instance obviously, but not often do you hear them say the quiet part out loud. Most of the times it’s just firms profiting off hardship and/or prior knowledge, which is easy to hide.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#107

Post by AnimalMuppet »

quakeguy wrote: post #14
behole wrote: post #11

Just another grift for orange man and his posse. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/anonymous-polymarket...

I always wonder about when there is a cutoff about the grift, i mean there has to be a point when enough is enough. Who cares if its 4 or 5 billions in the end, thats more money one could reasonably spend in a lifetime. What drives this greed?

The idea of winning. They have to keep winning because the idea of losing threatens their identity, which is in being a winner.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#108

Post by markus_zhang »

abustamam wrote: post #78

For whatever it's worth, Kalshi refused to pay out on the bet because Khomenei died, and they refuse to allow people to profit off of death so they returned everyone's bets. https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268 While I think this policy removes one avenue of incentivizing death of real people (many bets involving real people can probably be resolved by some sort of assassination attempt), I ho…

I guess it is just human nature to gamble on everything, anything. And when government puts down a heavy hand they turn to more lucrative underground shops.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#109

Post by lenerdenator »

zer0x4d wrote: post #92

The author spends the first paragraph of the article talking about how n number of users bet x on a specific outcome and they won. They fail to account for the many others who bet on a different outcome and lost. I watched polymarket like a hawk for weeks before the attack and am incredibly familiar with the numbers. Fact is, there were no indications on Polymarket that an attack was happening that morning. The chanc…

These sorts of things are in their infancy.

Give people enough time, and they'll start figuring out more and more ways to try to predict the markets given observations of the real world. Some will fail, but some will definitely succeed.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#110

Post by whycome »

zer0x4d wrote: post #92

The author spends the first paragraph of the article talking about how n number of users bet x on a specific outcome and they won. They fail to account for the many others who bet on a different outcome and lost. I watched polymarket like a hawk for weeks before the attack and am incredibly familiar with the numbers. Fact is, there were no indications on Polymarket that an attack was happening that morning. The chanc…

I like this post on Reddit/r/MarkMyWords:

MMW: The US will strike Iran before March 2nd, 2026

https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1rgjwpu/mmw_th...

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