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Russia's economy has entered the death zone

economist.com

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Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#101

Post by esseph »

neocron wrote: post #81
nradov wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I favor harsher sanctions against Russia but let's not be too optimistic. It doesn't take much funding to recruit a poor, desperate guy from the outer provinces, hand him a surplus rifle, and send him into a human wave attack. In a perverse sort of way, killing off those guys might actually be reducing Russian government expenses.

The bad thing is, they always did this and it worked. The good thing is, those russians stopped growing back with birthrates being one of the lowest in the world. We might just see a world without any russians in a few decades. What a dream

What the fuck did I just read

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#102

Post by kergonath »

dyauspitr wrote: post #19

How does Russia have $73 billion dollars worth of debt. Who is buying Russian treasuries? Also how did the GDP grow by 1% in 2025, is that a function of the internal Defence spending activity?

> is that a function of the internal Defence spending activity?

Yes, pretty much. But even that peaked at some point in 2023 and is trending downwards now.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#103

Post by wiseowise »

neocron wrote: post #83
mdavid626 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine might have less time than Russia does. Russia only has to survive 1 day more.

But then what, become a part of China? I don't think Russia could defend themselves from an attack of a lesser nation right now, and I truly wish one of them would take opportunity

They still have nukes.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#104

Post by wiseowise »

mdavid626 wrote: post #61
squidbeak wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia could end the war today if it wanted to.

Same for the West. If they do, they loose. That sets their position in the world. Who’d fear them? They can’t even win over a country which is much smaller and weaker than they are.

Russia has almost 1 million casualties, West hasn’t even arrived.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#105

Post by dyauspitr »

svara wrote: post #17
tonymet wrote: post #7

Déjà vu … Since Crimea Invasion Russia’s Economy Is On the Brink of Collapse" – CNN Business, December 2014. "The End of the Putin Era? Russia’s Economy Is Tanking" – Newsweek, December 2014. "Russia Heading for Economic 'Colossal Collapse'" – BBC News (quoting Alexei Kudrin), December 2014. "How the Oil Price Collapse Could Topple Putin" – The Guardian, 2015. "Russia’s Economy Is a Mess" – The Atlantic, February 201…

Do you keep a collection of these? What for?

Probably organized propaganda or fanatical support of Russia. My bet is on the former.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#106

Post by wiseowise »

ivan_gammel wrote: post #99
ajross wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There will not be a coup" is on the tombstone of like every failed leader ever. Economics doesn't change. Countries aren't people, even if the people running them try desperately to make you think so. I'm not saying that Putin is going to be deposed next week, or year, or even ever. I'm saying that the Russian government is no less susceptible to the circumstances that produce coups than any other failed state, and…

Except that Russia isn’t failed state. It’s politically stable (even more than before war), can mostly serve its population. The fact that it’s currently engaged in an expensive war, changes nothing.

Even more so, they actively capitalize on the state of war to unite population.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#107

Post by ivan_gammel »

wuschel wrote: post #50
pavel_lishin wrote: post #43

> If your competitors are also weakening—and if you believe you can tolerate the pain longer than they can—the calculus flips. Economic pressure that should drive compromise instead reinforces the logic of persistence. I think everyone underestimates just how much misery Russia, and Russian citizens, can endure.

I think the problem is that there is not much data presented in this article - or other articles of that kind. Systems are resilient - until they are not, and exhibit sudden factures and fast collapse. The question is not whether Russia collapses or not, but who would be making profit from such a scenario, and who is keen on keeping the current state of affairs.

Russia is a glimpse into the future of America if nothing changes substantially in American political system. It’s a digital surveillance state, an oligarchy which co-opted technocratic elites into a ruling class and exploits mildly oppressed population without going to extremes. It has the technology and resources to maintain status quo for a very long time and absorb moderate shocks like this war.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#108

Post by sourcegrift »

k_bx wrote: post #3

As a Ukrainian at war since day 1 – I don't buy it. They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Military force is the only way to get them to the death zone.

Thank you for your esteemed presence. I've got an unsatisfied hankering for kneeling since george Floyd died, but now that you're here, take that kneel.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#109

Post by torginus »

wiseowise wrote: post #95
shevy-java wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that is historically not quite true. World War 2 was not won due to the economy. And while it is true that the USSR "lost" the Cold War, they actually spent too much and entered a recurring debt from which they could no longer get out. There was no direct war here, which is different to e. g. world war 2 (at the least USA versus Germany). USSR and USA only fought some proxy wars.

> World War 2 was not won due to the economy. It was literally won due to the economy. The moment Germans failed to knock out Soviets and Japanese pulled Americans into the fight their days were numbered due to insane industrial base of the both countries. Soviet meat waves, industry + lend lease won Europe and US finished Japanese.

> meat waves

sigh

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#110

Post by jltsiren »

simonh wrote: post #34
k_bx wrote: post #3

As a Ukrainian at war since day 1 – I don't buy it. They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Military force is the only way to get them to the death zone.

The article is not as unrealistic as that, the author does point out that Putin is not just looking at the state of Russia, he’s also looking at the relative state of Ukraine and its support from the West. The death zone isn’t the point at which they die, it’s the point at which they are consuming their own long term strength and capacity to recover in order to sustain their effort . To our utter shame, we have never…

I don't think doubling the support would have been nearly enough to ensure Ukrainian victory.

The fundamental issue is that Russia has not fully committed to winning the war either. While losing the war would be an existential threat to the Putin regime, not winning it is not. As long as the war drags on, there are more effective uses for Russian resources to ensure the stability of the regime. But if the war becomes an existential threat, Russia could mobilize its entire economy.

A regime change in Russia is the only way Ukraine could win the war. Maybe by a coup or by military force. Or maybe by an arrangement, where the current regime can retire comfortably in a third country without having to answer for its crimes.

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