The problem is that the engineers and coders that ran microsoft are no longer doing so. Their leadership is too disconnected.
It's the same recipe of enshittification you see all over, marketing, sales take over along with consultants and MBA's. Except, I think in Microsoft's case there are still enough people who know about the technology to be dangerous, they're not entirely clueless, they just know enough (like about AI in this case) to be dangerous.
Regardless of the sentiment on HN and elsewhere though, even excluding enterprise usage, I doubt windows' marketshare will suffer more than 10% YoY.