Live data from Hacker News

Two kinds of AI users are emerging

martinalderson.com

101–110 of 358 posts

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It compacted at least twice but continued with no real issues. Anyway, please try it if you find it unbelievable. I didn't expect it to work FWIW like it did. Opus 4.5 is pretty amazing at long running tasks like this.

I think the skepticism here is that without tests or a _lot_ of manual QA how would you know that it did it correctly? Maybe you did one or the other , but “nearly one-shotted” doesn’t tend to mean that. Claude Code more than occasionally likes to make weird assumptions, and it’s well known that it hallucinates quite a bit more near the context length, and that compaction only partially helps this issue.

If you’re porting some formulas from one language to another, “correct” can be defined as “gets the same answers as before.” Assuming you can run both easily, this is easy to write a property test for.

Sure, maybe that’s just building something that’s bug-for-bug compatible, but it’s something Claude can work with.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#103
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't it help you sleep at night that your 401k might be managed by analysts #yoloing their financial modeling tools with an LLM?

having worked in large financial institutions, this would be a step improvement the largest independent derivatives broker in australia collapsed after it was discovered the board were using astrology and magicians to gamble with all the clients money https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-16/stockbroker-used-psyc...

Well that would do it. Astrology and magic stop working once they are scrutinized. That is their only weakness.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#104

I've noticed a huge gap between AI use on greenfield projects and brownfield projects. The first day of working on a greenfield project I can accomplish a week of work. But the second day I can accomplish a few days of work. By the end of the first week I'm getting a 20% productivity gain. I think AI is just allowing everyone to speed-run the innovator's dilemma. Anyone can create a small version of anything, while b…

Isn't this true of any greenfield project? with or without generative models. The first few days are amazingly productive. and then features and fixes get slower and slower. And you get to see how good an engineer you really are, as your initial architecture starts straining under the demands of changing real world requirements and you hope it holds together long enough to ship something.

"I could make that in a weekend"

"The first 80% of a project takes 80% of the time, the remaining 20% takes the other 80% of the time"

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#105

I've noticed a huge gap between AI use on greenfield projects and brownfield projects. The first day of working on a greenfield project I can accomplish a week of work. But the second day I can accomplish a few days of work. By the end of the first week I'm getting a 20% productivity gain. I think AI is just allowing everyone to speed-run the innovator's dilemma. Anyone can create a small version of anything, while b…

I find that setting up proper structure while everything still fits in a single context window of Claude code, as well as splittjng as much as possible into libraries works pretty well for staving off that moment.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure being able to verify that it's vaguely correct really solves the issue. Consider how many edge cases inhabit a "30 sheet, mind-numbingly complicated" Excel document. Verifying equivalence sounds nontrivial, to put it mildly.

Consider how many edge cases it misses. Equivalence probably shouldn't be the top priority here.

Equivalence here would definitely be the worst test, except for all the alternatives.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#107

I've noticed a huge gap between AI use on greenfield projects and brownfield projects. The first day of working on a greenfield project I can accomplish a week of work. But the second day I can accomplish a few days of work. By the end of the first week I'm getting a 20% productivity gain. I think AI is just allowing everyone to speed-run the innovator's dilemma. Anyone can create a small version of anything, while b…

Enterprise IT dinosaur here, seconding this perspective and the author’s. When I needed to bash out a quick Hashicorp Packer buildfile without prior experience beyond a bit of Vault and Terraform, local AI was a godsend at getting me 80% of the way there in seconds. I could read it, edit it, test it, and move much faster than Packer’s own thin “getting started” guide offered. The net result was zero prior knowledge t…

I let Claude configure en setup entire systems now. Requires some manual auditing and steering once in a while. But managing barebone servers without any management software has become pretty feasible and cheap. I managed to configure +50 Debian server cluster simultaneously with just ssh and Claude. Yes it's cowboy 3.0. But so are our products/sites.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#108
post #50

> The bifurcation is real and seems to be, if anything, speeding up dramatically. I don't think there's ever been a time in history where a tiny team can outcompete a company one thousand times its size so easily. Slightly overstated. Tiny teams aren't outcompeting because of AI, they're outcompeting because they aren't bogged down by decades of technical debt and bureaucracy. At Amazon, it will take you months of de…

> how do you safely let your company ship AI-generated code at scale without causing catastrophic failures? Nobody has solved this yet.

Ultimately, it's the same way you ship human-generated code at scale without causing catastrophic failure: by only investing trust in critical systems to people who are trustworthy and have skin in the game.

There are two possibilities right now: either AI continues to get better, to the point where AI tools become so capable that completely non-technical stakeholders can trust them with truly business-critical decision making, or the industry develops a full understanding of their capabilities and is able to dial in a correct amount of responsibility to engineers (accounting for whatever additional capability AI can provide). Personally, I think (hope?) we're going to land in the latter situation, where individual engineers can comfortably ship and maintain about as much as an entire team could in years past.

As you said, part of the difficulty is years of technical debt and bureaucracy. At larger companies, there is a *lot* of knowledge about how and why things work that doesn't get explicitly encoded anywhere. There could be a service processing batch jobs against a database whose URL is only accessible via service discovery, and the service's runtime config lives in a database somewhere, and the only person who knows about it left the company five years ago, and their former manager knows about it but transferred to a different team in the meantime, but if it falls over, it's going to cause a high-severity issue affecting seven teams, and the new manager barely knows it exists. This is a contrived example, but it goes to what you're saying: just being able to write code faster doesn't solve these kinds of problems.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Enterprise IT dinosaur here, seconding this perspective and the author’s. When I needed to bash out a quick Hashicorp Packer buildfile without prior experience beyond a bit of Vault and Terraform, local AI was a godsend at getting me 80% of the way there in seconds. I could read it, edit it, test it, and move much faster than Packer’s own thin “getting started” guide offered. The net result was zero prior knowledge t…

>LLMs really are a game changer for my personal sales pitch of being a single dinosaur army for IT in small to medium-sized enterprises. This is essentially what I'm doing too but I expect in a different country. I'm finding it incredibly difficult to successfully speak to people. How are you making headway? I'm very curious how you're leveraging AI messaging to clients/prospective clients that doesn't just come acro…

I interpreted his statement as LLMs being valuable for the actual marketing itself.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#110
post #12

The "upside" description: On the other you have a non-technical executive who's got his head round Claude Code and can run e.g. Python locally. I helped one recently almost one-shot converting a 30 sheet mind numbingly complicated Excel financial model to Python with Claude Code. Once the model is in Python, you effectively have a data science team in your pocket with Claude Code. You can easily run Monte Carlo simul…

One of the dirty secrets of a lot of these "code adjacent" areas is that they have very little testing. If a data science team modeled something incorrectly in their simulation, who's gonna catch it? Usually nobody. At least not until it's too late. Will you say "this doesn't look plausible" about the output? Or maybe you'll be too worried about getting chided for "not being data driven" enough. If an exec tells an i…

This has had tremendous real world consequences. The European austerity wave of the early 2010s was largely downstream of an excel spreadsheet errors that changed the result of a major study on the impact of debt/gdp.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23448-how-to-stop-exc...

Post reply on HN