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The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

bayramovanar.substack.com

101–110 of 230 posts

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#101
post #15

>In traditional industries like manufacturing you don’t hire 500 factory workers unless you have a production line that needs them. You don’t over-hire based on a guess. Traditional factories do make wrong guesses about the future and overhire all the time. Example: https://www.google.com/search?q=Ford+f150+lightning+laid+off...

Sure, factories also overhire sometimes or shrink their businesses but not at the scale or frequency we see in tech.

Only because their margins usually mean that those who do go out of business much sooner.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#102
post #15

>In traditional industries like manufacturing you don’t hire 500 factory workers unless you have a production line that needs them. You don’t over-hire based on a guess. Traditional factories do make wrong guesses about the future and overhire all the time. Example: https://www.google.com/search?q=Ford+f150+lightning+laid+off...

The whole article rests on this false economic claim, that traditional industries don’t overhire based on expectations. They absolutely do, ALL THE TIME. Manufacturing, automotive, airlines, energy etc. all of them make demand bets and lay people off when those bets fail. Cheap money amplified this cycle, but this isn’t a tech specific "failure", it’s just how forecasting under uncertainty work. It’s incredible how s…

There's also this tech exceptionalism/grass-is-greener bias where software engineers especially tend to romanticize other industries and professions.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole article rests on this false economic claim, that traditional industries don’t overhire based on expectations. They absolutely do, ALL THE TIME. Manufacturing, automotive, airlines, energy etc. all of them make demand bets and lay people off when those bets fail. Cheap money amplified this cycle, but this isn’t a tech specific "failure", it’s just how forecasting under uncertainty work. It’s incredible how s…

> It’s incredible how some engineers assume they understand economics, then proceed to fail on some of its most basic premises. This tends to happen when engineering-style certainty is applied to systems that are driven by incentives and uncertainty. Dunning Kruger effect, am I right? We consider we are smart because we can make computers go beep boop so we know about the economy too. I mean, I am part of this too ev…

> We consider we are smart because we can make computers go beep boop so we know about the economy too

Funny, the person you are agreeing with made the strongest "I know more than you" flex than anyone.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole article rests on this false economic claim, that traditional industries don’t overhire based on expectations. They absolutely do, ALL THE TIME. Manufacturing, automotive, airlines, energy etc. all of them make demand bets and lay people off when those bets fail. Cheap money amplified this cycle, but this isn’t a tech specific "failure", it’s just how forecasting under uncertainty work. It’s incredible how s…

I will avoid getting into a “who understands economics better” debate. But factory workers usually require specialized machinery, tooling, and physical capacity, which makes overhiring slower, harder and more constrained. Those investments force more deliberate planning. By contrast, engineers mostly require a laptop and company hoodie... That low marginal cost makes it far easier to hire aggressively on expectations…

> By contrast, engineers mostly require a laptop and company hoodie.

Alas, gone are the days when engineers too required specialized equipment like a desktop computer on the desk that you couldn't move with you. Every evening, you left it at office and went home to live a 100% home life. Alas, gone are those days.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#105
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Computers are a lever, a force multiplier. If your process is shit, you can shit faster with a computer. LLMs are another force multiplier. If your computerized process is a disaster … well, you said it and you’re right.

When I was young, the quote was still: To err is human, to really foul things up requires a computer.

That quote was on my mind as I wrote that message. I think I saw it as a child but some time after I had begun writing BASIC code. It took a moment’s thought at the time, but I soon came to realize its truth.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#106
Personally I think all these posts miss 50% of the issue... I agree it's not AI, but I suspect it's only partially an interest rate story.

Tech changed a lot from 2010 to 2020. Prior to 2010 almost everything built required a huge amount of development effort, and in 2010 there was still a huge amount of useful stuff to be built.

Remember – prior to 2010 a lot of major companies didn't even have basic e-commerce stores because the internet was still a desktop thing, and because of this it really only appealed to a subsection of the population who were computer literate.

Post 2010 and post iPhone the internet broadened massively. Suddenly everyone was online and companies now had to have an e-commerce store just to survive. Only problem was that there wasn't a Shopify or even npm to build from... So these companies had to hire armies of engineers.

Similarly there was no Uber, online banking was barely a thing, there was no real online streaming services, etc, etc, etc...

During this time almost everything had to built by hand, and almost everything being built was a good investment because it was so obviously useful.

Around 2015 I realised that e-commerce was close to being a solved problem. Both in how most major companies had built out fairly good e-commerce stores, and also in how it was becoming relatively easy for someone to create an e-commerce store with almost no tech skills with solutions like Shopify.

I'd argue somewhere between 2010 and 2020 the tech industry fundamentally changed. It become less about building useful stuff like search engines, social media sites, booking systems, e-commerce stores, etc – these were the obvious use cases for tech. Instead the tech industry started to transition to building what can only be described as "hype products" in which CEOs would promise similar profits and societal disruption as the stuff built before, except this time the market demand was much less clear.

Around this time I noticed both I and people I knew in tech stopped building useful stuff and were building increasingly more abstract stuff which was difficult to communicate to non-technical folks. If you asked someone what they did in tech around this time they might tell you that their company are disrupting some industry with the blockchain or that they're using machine learning pick birthday cards using data sourced from Twitter.

I used to bring this up to people in tech but so many people in tech at this time had convinced themselves that the money was rolling in because they were just so intelligent and solving really hard problems.

In reality the money was rolling in because of two back to back revolutions – the internet and the smart phone. These demanded almost all industries made a significant investment in technology, and for a decade or so those investments were extremely profitable. Anyone working in tech profited from those no-brainer technical investments.

Post-2015 the huge amount of capital in tech and the cheap money allowed people to spend recklessly on the "next big thing" for many years. 2015 to 2020 was such an amazing time to be in tech because people were basically throwing money at you to build literally anything.

But time's up now. Companies are realising that a lot of the money they invested in tech in recent years isn't profitable and isn't even that useful. So now they're focusing in on delivering value and building up profit margins.

The tech market isn't broken, it's coming back down to reality. Like railway workers post the boom we must face that most of the core infrastructure has now been built. A few of us will stick around making the odd improvement and maintaining what's already there, but that boom isn't coming back. Many of us will need to seek new professions.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#107
post #47

Interesting framing. The article makes a compelling case that we're seeing the hangover from 14 years of ZIRP-fueled hiring rather than an AI apocalypse. But I'm curious what people think the equilibrium looks like. If the "two-tier system" (core revenue teams + disposable experimental teams) becomes the norm, what does that mean for the future of SWE as a career? A few scenarios I keep turning over: 1. Bifurcation -…

"Consulting/contractor becomes default - Full-time employment becomes rare; most devs work project-to-project like other creative industries" I'm in the tech industry and have been doing this for 12+ years now. In the beginning, it was because I wanted to live overseas for a few years, without a break in my career. Now, it's about survival. I buy my own health insurance (me and my family) in the marketplace every yea…

Are you a one-person shop? How do you find clients?

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#108
post #6

From around 2010-2020 the stock market was rewarding growth more than profit. That means large tech employers hired like crazy to indicate growth. Then came COVID and the economy contracted. As a result the stock market changed to reward profitability. So, excess developers had to go. We are still feeling this. I do agree that AI is not to blame for this. In fact I will go further and claim that AI is a net negative…

How exactly are good doctors easy to identify and hard to fire? And how does it follow that AI is a net negative when wielded by professionals who are excellent at what they do? If people can't identify qualified professionals without relying on credentials, they probably aren't qualified to be hiring managers.

There are a couple of things that identify talent in the qualified space:

* Peer reviews in the industry

* Publications in peer reviewed journals

* Owner/partner of a firm of licensed professionals

* Quantity of surgeries, clients, products, and so forth

* Transparency around lawsuits, license violations, ethics violations, and so forth

* Multiple licenses. Not one, but multiple stacked on top of a base qualification license. For example an environmental lawyer will clearly have a law license, but will also have various environmental or chemistry certifications as well. Another example is that a cardiologist is not the same as a nurse practitioner or general physician.

Compare all of that against what the typical developer has:

* I have been employed for a long time

More elite developers might have these:

* Author of a published book

* Open source software author of application downloaded more than a million times

Those elite items aren't taken very seriously for employment consideration despite their effort and weight compared to what their peers offer.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#109
I don't really understand what the author is arguing for here. Yes, tech companies (and everyone else) hired a ton of people when money was cheap, and now they are doing lay offs. I suppose the alternative would be employing people for life? Or that it should be costlier to fire people (ie like in Europe)?

Also, if you are using AI to even write such a simple blog post, then perhaps corporations are indeed using it for all kinds of purposes too, and that undoubtedly reflects on their hiring.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#110
Is this just for the big guys like FANG, AI companies?

There is huge part of tech market that is just humdrum blue color software. Keep the ERP system running, build a new efficiency report, trouble shoot why the payroll missed bob last week because of a un-validated text entry field.

Or because of the years of zero interest, tons more people went into software, so now it is over-populated, and thus puts pressure on regular hum-drum software jobs.

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