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Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

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Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#101

Post by skybrian »

Havoc wrote: post #21

TIL EU savings rate is far more than US. 18.79% vs 3.50% Guessing that's somehow counting enforced deductions off paycheques. Would be a wild difference if not. https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/personal-savings https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savings

And yet there's no lack of demand for US investments, because they're attractive to foreign investors. (This is the flip side of trade deficits.)

I wonder how much of EU savings is invested in foreign countries?

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#102

Post by [deleted] »

nradov wrote: post #5

Macron is making up numbers. Unless the EU member states actually impose capital controls, investors will continue to send their capital wherever it can earn the highest returns. Profitable investment opportunities in the EU remain slim and so far they seem uninterested in pursuing a growth policy.

[deleted]

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#103

Post by victorbjorklund »

tchalla wrote: post #13

The EU can’t even get a Mercosur deal closed after 30 years. I think this will probably happen in another 60 years.

I thought Americans today are pro-tariffs and against free trade? US is still unable to get a free trade deal with mercosur.

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#104

Post by michaelt »

neilwilson wrote: post #9
nradov wrote: post #5

Macron is making up numbers. Unless the EU member states actually impose capital controls, investors will continue to send their capital wherever it can earn the highest returns. Profitable investment opportunities in the EU remain slim and so far they seem uninterested in pursuing a growth policy.

Except in a floating exchange rate that isn’t what happens. For somebody to leave the Eurozone for the Dollar zone there has to be somebody coming in the opposite direction to exchange with. Macron is still talking nonsense of course. The Euros never left in the first place.

> For somebody to leave the Eurozone for the Dollar zone there has to be somebody coming in the opposite direction to exchange with.

Does that mean trade imbalances don’t exist?

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#105

Post by victorbjorklund »

g-mork wrote: post #11
abirch wrote: post #8

When will the EU understand that they have the GOAT Paul Graham across the channel in the UK? Open YCombinator Paris or London: Capital would flow to him.

drop capital gains tax on EU stonks and watch the flight. there are a million ways they could make this attractive

In general those things work pretty bad. Then someone will just make an EU company that owns US shares to do a tax arbitrage.

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#106

Post by torginus »

ilikehurdles wrote: post #44
bhouston wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politics drives decision making in addition to just seeking returns, especially for government affiliated funds, e.g.: https://www.reuters.com/business/swedish-pension-fund-alecta... https://www.cbsnews.com/news/danish-pension-fund-treasuries-... (And remember that India and China combined reduced their holdings of US treasures by at least $50B in 2025: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/amid-global-...…

Contrary to the implication, the Swedish fund that possibly sold $8b of its $100b worth of US Treasuries did not cite politics as its reason for doing so, and no part of the article backs up that claim. Additionally, selling out of the US dollar as the fed aimed to cut rates and as the dollar declined from historic highs against the Euro seems sensible regardless of politics. Denmark has been exiting foreign bonds fo…

Yeah politics or not, the US stock market has a very high exposure to just a couple tech companies, and many of these companies have a very high P/E, and likewise hugely invested in AI (which itself is a risk). Add to that the recent (entirely self-inflicted) geopolitical questions of US reliability, I think it's a smart idea to reduce US exposure in one's portfolio.

Circling back to AI, my (not politically motivated) opinion, is that most of the tremendous supposed value was priced in into AI stock back in 2024, with 2025 gains being either relatively modest or stagnant. With the risks involved, I think it's fair to expect that AI companies can go down a lot, but it's hard to imagine them going up by that much.

Like, for example if NVIDIA gained another $1T in market cap, that'd increase the stock price by 22%, but if they lost that much, it would make it go down by 36%. If we consider both outcomes equally likely (not suggesting this is a reasonable assumption), we're more likely to lose money.

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#107

Post by realusername »

skybrian wrote: post #94
abirch wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately the US Dollar is devaluing. In the past year the dollar went down by 11%. That means SP 500 which has gone up 13% in the past year has only gone up 2% for a European.

This means that from a European point of view, US investments are 11% cheaper. This could be attractive depending on your view of the future of the US dollar and US stock market.

Well no thanks, the US is going the same path Hungary and Turkey, just with a 10 year difference, autocrats are never good for business.

As soon as Trump came in power I sold all my dollars and I was wise to do it.

Expect things to go much more worse from here, this is only the beginning. For now the FED has relatively been untouched, it's not going to stay pristine forever.

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#108

Post by thatguy0900 »

soperj wrote: post #63
TacticalCoder wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Isn't the US running a deficit of 5.8% of their GDP as well?

I think the issue here is that France can't print more euros to cover it, other countries have to cover it since they share currency they are all responsible for the debt

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#109

Post by sgloutnikov »

mrtksn wrote: post #39
Havoc wrote: post #21

TIL EU savings rate is far more than US. 18.79% vs 3.50% Guessing that's somehow counting enforced deductions off paycheques. Would be a wild difference if not. https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/personal-savings https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savings

Even the poorest EU countries are actually surprisingly wealthy. Bulgaria was switching to Euro on the new year’s eve and the easiest way to convert Leva to Euro was to put the money into the bank, so Bulgarian deposits reached 100B+ levas into personal accounts by November which converts to ~50B+ Euros. Which is over 10K Euros per Bulgarian adult. Not bad for the poorest country, considering that home ownership rate…

Those numbers are quite off. The total amount of Leva in circulation at the end of 2024 was round 30B. End of November 2025 in circulation around 23B.

Re: Macron says €300B in EU savings sent to the US every year will be invested in EU

#110

Post by matthewaveryusa »

victorbjorklund wrote: post #91
TacticalCoder wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> The only reason the IMF hasn't taken the reins of France yet is because France has the nuclear weapon and is the only country in the eurozone to have it, so they have some leverage with the other countries in the eurozone. First of all IMF has nothing to do with the Eurozone. And second of all, we are Europeans. We don’t threaten to bomb our neighbors if they don’t give us what we want. That’s just a Russian/Americ…

Only for the past 70 years. Before that europeans were the bomb-lobbing record holders.
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