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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

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Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#101

Post by shimman »

nemomarx wrote: post #12
AbstractH24 wrote: post #6

Why is polymarket any more or less dangerous than NFTs or naked option trading? Fool and his money are quickly separated…

Marketed to a broader audience with more users, like sports betting? And to be fair options trading used to be pretty limited in users too, until apps like robinhood tried to democratize it.

Replace the word "democratize" with "unleash" and that's a far more accurate descriptor.

It's not democratic if you can't destroy it, and believe me a majority of people want to destroy it.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#102

Post by ManuelKiessling »

tpm wrote: post #91
Buttons840 wrote: post #65

This is a problem, a net negative and a sign of a weakening society. But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? It seems hard to be a climate change denier when you're about to gamble on it. Or maybe people will find a way to gamble while still living in completely different reality bubbles. Probably. If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last elec…

> But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? Long time ago I was working for a betting company and we had a product where virtual (horses, dogs, bikes, cars) were racing in a virtual environment. This was displayed on a TV in physical branches and on the website, along with completely transparent information that it is all random, source of randomness was even so…

Am I overlooking something, or would that mean it’s super easy for a rational participant to make money?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#103

Post by pyrolistical »

andrepd wrote: post #78
Buttons840 wrote: post #65

This is a problem, a net negative and a sign of a weakening society. But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? It seems hard to be a climate change denier when you're about to gamble on it. Or maybe people will find a way to gamble while still living in completely different reality bubbles. Probably. If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last elec…

> But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? 5 minutes browsing polymarket comments will dispel that notion really fast.

But at least you can make them poorer

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#104

Post by gpm »

ManuelKiessling wrote: post #102
tpm wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? Long time ago I was working for a betting company and we had a product where virtual (horses, dogs, bikes, cars) were racing in a virtual environment. This was displayed on a TV in physical branches and on the website, along with completely transparent information that it is all random, source of randomness was even so…

Am I overlooking something, or would that mean it’s super easy for a rational participant to make money?

Presumably it's a negative expected value game - the company running it has to make money after all... so likely not.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#105

Post by abetusk »

"Why prediction markets aren't popular" [0] gives some compelling arguments (to me) about why prediction markets haven't caught on and probably never will.

As I understand it, the main argument is that for prediction markets that aim to incentivize the thing they're predicting, better to invest in the thing directly. Otherwise, "prediction markets" are successful precisely when they can't influence the outcome, like sports betting.

I remember finding the election betting interesting last presidential election, but I also remember that it was spiked when Musk invested to change the odds.

[0] https://worksinprogress.co/issue/why-prediction-markets-aren...

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#107

Post by skippyboxedhero »

AbstractH24 wrote: post #6

Why is polymarket any more or less dangerous than NFTs or naked option trading? Fool and his money are quickly separated…

Because it is gambling.

NFTs have zero value but people seem to derive non-monetary value from them. Naked option trading is a form of gambling (as well as risk management) and, as a result, it is regulated.

Polymarket is a "financial investment" for regulatory purposes but is gambling, there is no legitimate risk management reason. As a result, there is massive scope for harm because it is gambling without any of the gambling regulations that exist in the US.

People on this site appear to be unaware that gambling is regulated where legal. I will give you an example: Polymarket do not comply with state regulator's exclusion/no market lists. This is immoral. Gambling companies should not take bets from users who have gambling problems, they should not market to them.

Offshore unregulated books will often market themselves to addicts saying that they do not comply with regulator's exclusion lists...this is an onshore book operating in Lexington Avenue New York, not out of a shed with a pig sty in Curaco. It is unbelievable at many levels.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#108

Post by pyrolistical »

ManuelKiessling wrote: post #102
tpm wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? Long time ago I was working for a betting company and we had a product where virtual (horses, dogs, bikes, cars) were racing in a virtual environment. This was displayed on a TV in physical branches and on the website, along with completely transparent information that it is all random, source of randomness was even so…

Am I overlooking something, or would that mean it’s super easy for a rational participant to make money?

Sometimes. Often the sure fire bets have lower returns than the expected annual stock market returns.

You have to watch out for resolutions are don’t depend on the truth or could be abused.

Examples of markets to avoid are those that a single individual can manipulate. They could take the most profitable side and corrupt the result.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#109

Post by pgruenbacher »

networkadmin wrote: post #40
microtonal wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the point of posting entire book fragments here?

So that lazy people who form their worldview via a Quick Google Search, Wikipedia articles, and/or "news media" can actually have a chance to learn something real about the time they are living in. It's like a dozen paragraphs, forming one complete argument. Is this too much material to take in all at once, in this brave new TLDR tomorrow?

i enjoyed reading it thank you

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#110

Post by pyrolistical »

gpm wrote: post #104
ManuelKiessling wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Am I overlooking something, or would that mean it’s super easy for a rational participant to make money?

Presumably it's a negative expected value game - the company running it has to make money after all... so likely not.

Prediction markets don’t need a bookie. Each bet has another real person taking the other side.

It’s more like the stock market brokerages. They just take a fee on each trade and don’t need to give you a spread over the stock price

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