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Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

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Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#101

There is something to be said about the state of advertising. Increasingly it seems you must go to the almighty Google or Meta in order to launch any business. We're looking to expand into a new business line and have out grown our pharmacy capacity. The new business line will cost about $2M in software dev, and $3M for the new facility. The advertising budget? $40,000,000 (annual). We can build 10 robotic pharmacies…

This is kind of broken logic. You’re not required to advertise. If you want to scale your business into millions in revenue, then you’ll likely need to advertise. The best ROI is generally google/meta, but you have countless other options. You can buy ads directly from most websites, it just doesn’t scale.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I stumbled upon this one as well, but I do not understand it really: Why is my job safe if Ads prove there is no AGI? Because even if there would be AGI, they could (and would?) serve ads anyway?

Yes, I don't understand it either. I think the opposite is true. If AGI happens and it becomes immensely successful, it would be the best medium to deliver ads and at the same time our jobs wouldn't be safe. Perhaps the people who like that quote can elaborate why that quote makes sense and why they like it?

Nobody will have jobs and nobody will be able to buy the stuff offered in the ads

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#103
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counter example: Kagi.

Kagi is a niche product at best, with revenue literally orders of magnitude lower than Google's.

At one time Google was a niche website, literally orders of magnitude lower than Alta Vista.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#104
post #43

What's the difference between AI ads and computer-assisted bribery? We can wrangle the legalese (as AI companies certainly will) but is there any ethical, moral, or practical difference?

That sounds like the opening line to a joke. What bribe are you referring to? Who’s getting paid, and what favor is being exchanged?

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#105

There is something to be said about the state of advertising. Increasingly it seems you must go to the almighty Google or Meta in order to launch any business. We're looking to expand into a new business line and have out grown our pharmacy capacity. The new business line will cost about $2M in software dev, and $3M for the new facility. The advertising budget? $40,000,000 (annual). We can build 10 robotic pharmacies…

Just to verify--as I truly do have a contempt for big tech oligopoly that extract rent from everyone to do anything at all, but am just unsure this specific problem is a ramification of such--are you sure you would not have had a large advertising budget pre-Google, or even pre-Internet? You used to pay to pay for limited space in newspapers and limited time on TV/radio stations, which also had high theoretical per-unit margins, or for a massive pile of physical mailers and door hangers, along with the cost of the delivery.

To the extent to which our current situation costs more, I'd think it might merely be because of increased worldwide competition: it used to be that the people trying to advertise to any specific random community were also likely local, and probably had a legit attempt at a business model... only, now, the rise of online companies funded by speculative venture capital means that an attempt to advertise a restaurant to people who live in a 10 mile radius must compete against a company that raised $400m to sell an online engagement platform that cares not one iota who uses it as long as the conversion cost is cheap, bidding up ads everywhere.

(One place that does seem to me to be uniquely the fault of these modern tech companies, though, is that if a newspaper published a scam ad, whether or not they had legal culpability, I think they and their surrounding community did at least strongly feel that they had some level of moral culpability. In the current tech environment, people seem to want to believe Meta/Google should be allowed to indiscriminately publish ads from bad actors, so you now must also compete to bid for limited attention with obvious-to-most-but-not-all scams and grifts that make money out of nothing but bullshit and are thereby willing to again bid up prices anywhere and everywhere.)

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#106
I can't be the only person completely unconcerned about this state of affairs. They're ads. This is the most straightforward incentive structure in the world - they are paid to supply ads on behalf of other companies, and we consume those ads and are, in turn, provided with their product. I don't know why it is, but people are incapable of evaluating this exchange objectively - there's something inherently detestable about advertisement to the human mind. This is a perfectly reasonable exchange.

Besides, if it wasn't for ads, I never would've found out about Zyns, and now I can't stop buying them.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#107
post #66
post #22

There's no question that "AI" is the next advertising frontier. I've been saying this for years[1][2][3]. It is going to be the most lucrative form of it yet, and no "AI" company will be able to resist it. Given the exorbitant amount of resources required for this technology, advertising will probably be the only viable business model that can sustain it at scale. [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35706981 [2…

The exorbitant costs could save us from ads actually. instead everyone will have to pay subscriptions like for mobile phone plans. Haven't heard of the ad-based Rolls-Royce yet.

Paying for a subscription does not guarantee you won't get ads. They could do both.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#108
When users come to you, they may or may not shell out money for your products, but they are forced to give out something valuable to you. That is their attention which you can sell. The value of attention of the crowd could be so big for some companies to give away their products free.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I stumbled upon this one as well, but I do not understand it really: Why is my job safe if Ads prove there is no AGI? Because even if there would be AGI, they could (and would?) serve ads anyway?

who would pivot to selling ads if AGI was in reach? These orgs are burning a level of funding that is looking to fulfil dreams, ads is a pragmatic choice that implies a the moonshot isn't in range yet.

Because AGI is still some years away even if you are optimistic; and OpenAI must avoid going to the ground in the meantime due to lack of revenue. Selling ads and believing that AGI is reachable in the near future is not incompatible.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#110

There is something to be said about the state of advertising. Increasingly it seems you must go to the almighty Google or Meta in order to launch any business. We're looking to expand into a new business line and have out grown our pharmacy capacity. The new business line will cost about $2M in software dev, and $3M for the new facility. The advertising budget? $40,000,000 (annual). We can build 10 robotic pharmacies…

“Your margin will soon be my margin.”

The solution was/is and most likely will be antitrust but which administration will shatter the US tech market we are yet to see.

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