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Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

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Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#101

Post by tptacek »

ofrzeta wrote: post #98
tptacek wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By which you mean we withdrew support from the Shah, not so much that we supported the Iranian Revolution itself.

The USA have backed the coup against the democratically elected prime minister Mossadegh, to begin with. "In 1953, the CIA- and MI6-backed 1953 Iranian coup d'état overthrew Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, who had nationalized the Anglo-Persian Oil Company." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution

So the claim here is that by backing any coups and revolutions, the US tacitly backed all of them? Ok!

Like: yes, I lay a lot of the responsibility for the nightmare state Iranians live in at the hands of Cold War NATO policymakers, for sure, but I don't think it's all that useful as a positive claim of what happened in the 1970s. The US did not support the Ayatollahs.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#102

Post by tptacek »

ebbi wrote: post #100
tptacek wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't doubt this is true but would also note that high-profile online outlets --- Ryan Grim's Drop Site News, most notably --- have run pieces talking about how huge anti-government protests are in fact pro-government protests, when that has turned out to be flatly false. (I don't know where they get this stuff). The Iranian anti-regime movement is very well established and is not the product of foreign interventio…

I agree that the anti-regime movement is not all the product of foreign intervention, but I'd say some (and even wager majority) are. Not acknowledging foreign intervention in this aspect would not give a fuller picture of the dynamics.

I think that's an extraordinary claim.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#103

Post by submeta »

bpt3 wrote: post #36
zjzkshz wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t get the downvotes either. Everything you’ve mentioned is pretty easily verifiable and not disputed.

It's being downvoted because it's mostly nonsense based on what I'm aware of. Please enlighten us with some of this easily verifiable information.

[flagged]

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#104

Post by joecool1029 »

breppp wrote: post #57
submeta wrote: post #13

Western governments do not want democracy in Iran. They want the son of Shah back in Iran, the Shah whose father tortured and exploited Iranians, and that led to the revolution and the rise of the mullahs. The US and Israel want regime change so Israel can dominate the ME. Just like they replaced Assad in Syria by Jolani, a wanted Al Qaeda terrorist who does not oppose Israel in any way but slaughter kurds and alavit…

Example wrong claims: 1. Jolani was propped up by Turkey not Israel, their relations are still tense. E.g. Jolani has been massacring the Druze which are Israel's allies, while Israel-Turkey relations are only getting worse. Unsure where so many get the idea Israel is excited about an ISIS veterans regime on its border that regularly massacres civilians including on-brand mass rapes, kidnappings, beheadings, cutting…

> Unsure where so many get the idea Israel is excited about an ISIS veterans regime on its border that regularly massacres civilians including on-brand mass rapes, kidnappings, beheadings, cutting hearts out etc

Perhaps because they openly provided support to them for years: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/report-israel-treating-al-...

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#105

Post by vorpalhex »

gm678 wrote: post #70
observationist wrote: post #3

This looks like it might be the end for the current regime. There are still people getting information out, and they are tearing down and burning state buildings - around 3000 protesters killed since the crackdown began, but there appear to be tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people who have risen up against the ayatollah, with an unknown number of state forces and officials killed. Crazy start to the year.

I don't see any news source anywhere on the internet claiming that 3000 number - anti-government sources have said 'hundreds' of protestors have been killed, whereas the Iranian state media has been silent on the death toll except confirming 109 members of security forces killed.

As of two days ago, multiple Iranian hospitals said >2000 dead was their estimate.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#106

Post by vorpalhex »

falaki wrote: post #85

Some personal observations as I am in touch with a few folks inside Iran through Starlink. 1. The jamming/disruption is local to large cities most notably the capital, Tehran. 2. Even in Tehran it is not complete and my friends are able to send and receive messages. Uploading videos is harder. 3. The regime is now raiding homes that they suspect have Starlink terminals. I don't know how they identify them but I do wo…

To the extent that you are able to send messages back, I would relay that the correct strategy is to set up a terminal, run it for a max of an hour or two, then tear it down and move again. And the terminal needs to never be plugged in and active in the same place where it is stored when it is not in use.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#107

Post by ebbi »

tptacek wrote: post #102
ebbi wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that the anti-regime movement is not all the product of foreign intervention, but I'd say some (and even wager majority) are. Not acknowledging foreign intervention in this aspect would not give a fuller picture of the dynamics.

I think that's an extraordinary claim.

Why do you think it's extraordinary?

I know quite a lot of Iranians, and when I talked about this with them about a year ago, their lay of the land given their own opinions and their wider networks opinion is that the majority of Iranians are pro-regime change but NOT at the hands of a US/Israeli intervention.

There are anti-regime segments that are pro-US/Israel intervention, but they think this is a minority and they think most of them are products of foreign intervention.

After Israel bombed Iran last year, there were a few Israeli cells that were uncovered in Iran, so suggesting there is some foreign intervention isn't out of the ordinary.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#108

Post by ofrzeta »

tptacek wrote: post #101
ofrzeta wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA have backed the coup against the democratically elected prime minister Mossadegh, to begin with. "In 1953, the CIA- and MI6-backed 1953 Iranian coup d'état overthrew Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, who had nationalized the Anglo-Persian Oil Company." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution

So the claim here is that by backing any coups and revolutions, the US tacitly backed all of them? Ok! Like: yes, I lay a lot of the responsibility for the nightmare state Iranians live in at the hands of Cold War NATO policymakers, for sure, but I don't think it's all that useful as a positive claim of what happened in the 1970s. The US did not support the Ayatollahs.

> So the claim here is that by backing any coups and revolutions, the US tacitly backed all of them? Ok!

I didn't say that. It's just that Iran already had a democratically elected government. However there is some truth to the claim that you put in my mouth, that is, you can see that pattern quite often in history. Chile is another example but let's focus on Iran.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#109

Post by red-iron-pine »

ebbi wrote: post #45
observationist wrote: post #3

This looks like it might be the end for the current regime. There are still people getting information out, and they are tearing down and burning state buildings - around 3000 protesters killed since the crackdown began, but there appear to be tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people who have risen up against the ayatollah, with an unknown number of state forces and officials killed. Crazy start to the year.

I'm not so sure. There are plenty of pro-regime protests in Iran currently, and the general replies on interviews I've seen is "yes we have our problems, but we don't want Israel and the US fixing it", which tracks with a lot of sentiment I've heard from Iranian friends of mine. There was also a three year old killed by anti-regime protestors which has heightened the sentiments of pro-regime protestors.

I don't think the US or Israel want to fix it, I think they want a pretext for bombing Iranian military sites to aggressively defang

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#110

Post by FergusArgyll »

burnt-resistor wrote: post #78
andrewinardeer wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My fingers are crossed that whatever happens post current regime that life is markedly better for the Iranian people. I'd hate to see civil war or mass starvation. Their currency has fallen off a cliff and continues to do so.

And doesn't become another neoliberal, corrupt vassal state beholden to the IMF.

Yeah, that sounds absolutely awful compared to what it's like to live in Iran now
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