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There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

loworbitsecurity.com

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Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#101

Post by silversmith »

adventured wrote: post #89
spacebanana7 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine wouldn’t have been invaded if they hadn’t given up their nuclear weapons.

Why not? Russia invades. Ukraine launches nukes. Every major city in Ukraine is ash. Several major cities in Russia are ash. Millions die plausibly. That scenario is not what would happen from an invasion. Zelensky would not have used nukes to prompt the death of millions instantly. He would have proceeded with the same defensive war. The false premise rests on: it's better for everyone to die than live under Russian…

> All those people that lived under Soviet Russia occupation, they were better off dead in nuclear fire than living under said occupation?

As someone from a country that used to be under russia n boot - the fireball is preferable.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#102

Post by delfinom »

aoeusnth1 wrote: post #86
spacebanana7 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine wouldn’t have been invaded if they hadn’t given up their nuclear weapons.

Alternatively, we might have entered either a limited or a worst-case nuclear war scenario. Russia may have just continually pushed the envelope until it became clear there wasn't a bright red line, and eventually someone would push the button.

The psychopaths in charge of Russia still like living comfortably.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#103

Post by roncesvalles »

delichon wrote: post #28

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

>I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation

Why would it?

1. "Nuclear capability" is not binary. The available delivery mechanisms and the defensive capabilities of your adversary matter a lot.

2. MAD constrains both sides. It's unlikely that an unpopular Head of State getting kidnapped would warrant a nuclear first strike especially against a country like (Trump's) America, which would not hesitate to glass your whole country in response.

3. It's extremely risky to "try" a nuke, because even if it's shot down, does it mean your enemy treats it as a nuclear strike and responds as if it had landed? That's a very different equation from conventional missiles. E.g. Iran sends barrages of missiles because they expect most of them to be shot down. It's probably not calculating a scenario where all of them land and Israel now wants like-for-like revenge.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#104

Post by delfinom »

adventured wrote: post #89
spacebanana7 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine wouldn’t have been invaded if they hadn’t given up their nuclear weapons.

Why not? Russia invades. Ukraine launches nukes. Every major city in Ukraine is ash. Several major cities in Russia are ash. Millions die plausibly. That scenario is not what would happen from an invasion. Zelensky would not have used nukes to prompt the death of millions instantly. He would have proceeded with the same defensive war. The false premise rests on: it's better for everyone to die than live under Russian…

>The false premise rests on: it's better for everyone to die than live under Russian occupation. That would overwhelmingly be chosen false by the population in question that is being invaded.

Well, Russian occupation usually means your town slowly undergoes mass extermination and genocide....

so yes? nuclear fireball is potentially preferred

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#105

Post by 9dev »

bawolff wrote: post #67
cheema33 wrote: post #27

If you were not already entirely reliant on American tech before, this ought to convince you to put jump in with both feet. What could possibly go wrong?

There is not really any reason to conclude that "american tech" was responsible for this attack. If anything, given all the sanctions Venezuela was under and how friendly they are with china, i would be surprised if they were using american tech in their infrastructure. [Of course i agree with the broader point of dont become dependent on the technology of your geopolitical enemies]

It’s for sure another alarm signal for the EU to further reduce dependencies on our newest geopolitical enemy… the United States of America.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#106

Post by tick_tock_tick »

JasonADrury wrote: post #57
bawolff wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From bgp hijacking? Almost certainly not. It would probably rule out the type of decapitation strike the US did, but bgp hijacking is way way below on the escalation ladder.

Nuclear capability wouldn't necessarily rule out this kind of a decapitation strike, it's just that it's very hard to imagine this kind of an operation actually being successful in any nuclear-capable country. The US couldn't just fly a bunch of helicopters to Pyongyang or Tehran and do the same within 30 minutes. Most likely every single one of those helicopters would end up being shot down.

Honestly from what we learned in the earlier attacks on Iran the USA probably could take a quick trip over to Tehran and grab the Ayatollah.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#107

Post by 7952 »

erxam wrote: post #41
delichon wrote: post #28

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

Indeed. The DPRK was right from the start. They always were. For the longest time I thought they'd gone too far, but now we're the clowns putting on a show.

Sure, but there must always be a fear that the military and public would not want to die in a nuclear inferno to defend national sovereignty. And may tolerate a coupe instead. Which then reduces the madness and the deterrent effect. The extra step the Dprk have taken is to try and build bunkers so that the regime could survive the destruction of the country. A step further into madness that goes beyond what western countries have been willing to accept.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#108

Post by jojobas »

erxam wrote: post #41
delichon wrote: post #28

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

Indeed. The DPRK was right from the start. They always were. For the longest time I thought they'd gone too far, but now we're the clowns putting on a show.

[flagged]

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#109

Post by erklik »

nradov wrote: post #74
JasonADrury wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear capability wouldn't necessarily rule out this kind of a decapitation strike, it's just that it's very hard to imagine this kind of an operation actually being successful in any nuclear-capable country. The US couldn't just fly a bunch of helicopters to Pyongyang or Tehran and do the same within 30 minutes. Most likely every single one of those helicopters would end up being shot down.

Nuclear capability by itself isn't a complete deterrent. It has been widely reported that the US military has made contingency plans for a decapitation strike and seizure or destruction of nuclear weapons in Pakistan in case the situation turns really bad there. Real deterrence requires a credible second-strike capability on survivable platforms such as submarines.

> the US military has made contingency plans for a decapitation strike and seizure or destruction of nuclear weapons in Pakistan in case the situation turns really bad there. Real deterrence requires a credible second-strike capability on survivable platforms such as submarines.

The existence of a plan does not equate to the feasibility of its execution. A submarine-based deterrent is indeed the "gold standard" for survivability, but it is not the only standard. There is enough pain for the US that they wouldn't actually attack Pakistan.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#110

Post by wood_spirit »

conception wrote: post #96
erxam wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. The DPRK was right from the start. They always were. For the longest time I thought they'd gone too far, but now we're the clowns putting on a show.

I think have thousands of artillery shells aimed at Seoul is the larger deterrent.

The nukes are to deter the US. They have been steadily increasing their missile range to first reach regional bases like Guam and now the all the way to the continental USA, and are now even launching a nuclear powered and nuclear armed ballistic missile submarine https://www.hisutton.com/DPRK-SSN-Update.html
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