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2025 Letter

danwang.co

101–110 of 340 posts

Re: 2025 Letter

#101
post #70

As a Brit, I struggled to get much interesting out of this considering how many times he mentions "Europe" (in that condescendingly general way that only US folks seem to manage). He talks about "European" prospects and his trip to Denmark but then cites London as a representative example? This almost broke my brain it felt so incoherent. Never mind that (despite my personal wishes) we're not even part of the EU (whi…

[deleted]

Re: 2025 Letter

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the best books I read this year. I think a lot of HN readers will like it. A really balanced take on China that also digs deep into the perennial question of “why can’t we build big infrastructure projects in the US?” that comes up here quite often.

We used to build those infrastructure projects.

Well of course, and the book digs a little into the history as well, and what changed around the 1960s/70s. There is a long section on Robert Moses, for example. He draws a lot of parallels between modern China and the US in the 19th and early 20th centuries - totally different political systems, but similar “breakneck” ability to build.

Re: 2025 Letter

#103
post #27

A fascinating and eye-opening read. One of my intentions for this coming year is to critically examine and (if appropriate) alter or dispel some preconceptions I have. To that end, I'm curious about this part: > You don’t have to convince the elites or the populace that growth is good or that entrepreneurs could be celebrated. Meanwhile in Europe, perhaps 15 percent of the electorate actively believes in degrowth. I…

Believing in growth just means believing that the future will be better than the past.

And believing this, is the single thing keeping the entire world running.

Germany is currently ruining itself because its stagnating economy means that it can not keep up with the rising costs for its pension system and has to increasingly raise more funds from a smaller, population which is seeing little productivity gains.

>Degrowth, on the other hand, would directly reduce those externalities; and, if imposed via progressive taxation, would have further societal benefits via funded programs.

Do you think that Germany will have social benefits at all, when the auto industry collapses. Where is the money coming from?

Economic growth has enabled mass literacy. It has created industrial agriculture, which eliminated hunger for economic reasons in all countries which practice it. Degrowth means turning our back on the single process which caused the greatest increase in human quality of life.

Re: 2025 Letter

#104
post #86
post #70

As a Brit, I struggled to get much interesting out of this considering how many times he mentions "Europe" (in that condescendingly general way that only US folks seem to manage). He talks about "European" prospects and his trip to Denmark but then cites London as a representative example? This almost broke my brain it felt so incoherent. Never mind that (despite my personal wishes) we're not even part of the EU (whi…

He’s a Chinese guy in the US. He thinks in terms of large monoliths. The nuance of 40 different cultures on a small continent might be lost on him. That’s OK. We all have some approximation of reality in our brains which is necessarily shaped by our life experiences.

[deleted]

Re: 2025 Letter

#105
post #55
post #49

London has the house prices of California and the income levels of Mississippi. the UK is seriously broken, I always reflect on the energy generation statistics of the UK per capita while in the US you see automated car washes, in the uk most car washes are Albanians n other immigrants etc

House prices are out of wack anywhere desirable because the local income is irrelevant when non-locals are allowed to scoop up the local supply.

Real estate prices are out of whack everywhere. Even in places with no good jobs, low population density, and rapid depopulation, real estate prices are increasing exponentially. There are no market forces in play anymore.

Re: 2025 Letter

#106
post #86
post #70

As a Brit, I struggled to get much interesting out of this considering how many times he mentions "Europe" (in that condescendingly general way that only US folks seem to manage). He talks about "European" prospects and his trip to Denmark but then cites London as a representative example? This almost broke my brain it felt so incoherent. Never mind that (despite my personal wishes) we're not even part of the EU (whi…

He’s a Chinese guy in the US. He thinks in terms of large monoliths. The nuance of 40 different cultures on a small continent might be lost on him. That’s OK. We all have some approximation of reality in our brains which is necessarily shaped by our life experiences.

Your statement here is pretty ironic.

China also has many different cultures, languages and so on for the over 1.4 billion people who live there. Why would the “nuance” of Europe be “lost” on a Chinese person?

Re: 2025 Letter

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Judging you based on the work you've done seems... very meritocratic to me?

I think the OP was making the point that it isn't meritocratic, at least that is how it read to me: they thought people where not meaningfully different in skill level (the people at the exclusive company being comparable to everywhere else) and that where you worked was the new way to find the 'in' people, rather than what university you graduated from (saying they had job offers based purely on getting the job at t…

Yes, that is what OP is saying, I'm just not very convinced. Primarily because his sample size is quite small – he says the people in his smaller, non-SV jobs were just as competent as those in the SV company, but that could mean a number of things that are not "SV isn't meritocratic". For example, it could just be that his previous colleagues were more competent than the actual national/global average, which seems probable.

Re: 2025 Letter

#108
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He’s a Chinese guy in the US. He thinks in terms of large monoliths. The nuance of 40 different cultures on a small continent might be lost on him. That’s OK. We all have some approximation of reality in our brains which is necessarily shaped by our life experiences.

Your statement here is pretty ironic. China also has many different cultures, languages and so on for the over 1.4 billion people who live there. Why would the “nuance” of Europe be “lost” on a Chinese person?

China mostly has a single national identity, and provincial differences are way too nuanced to be mapped in the same way that country differences in Europe would be. It would be like trying to get Americans to understand that "Henan man" is a meme similar to the "Florida man" meme.

Re: 2025 Letter

#109
post #64
post #58

In the thread "Roomba maker goes bankrupt, Chinese owner emerges" [1], I wrote about China'a hardware capability now going far beyond what US can imagine. In Dan's article; >A rule of thumb is that it takes five years from an American, German, or Japanese automaker to dream up a new car design and launch that model on the roads; in China, it’s closer to 18 months. Not only is China 3 - 5 times faster in terms of prod…

China doesn't particularly need US soybeans but they're going to have to continue importing soybeans from somewhere (like Brazil or Canada) indefinitely. Like any commodity, soybeans are (somewhat) fungible. China doesn't have the right combination of arable land and cheap fertilizer necessary to be self-sufficient in soy at an economically viable cost. Of course, China's population is now declining so ironically tha…

Along ops reasoning, PRC will find domestic slop to feed pigs. There's already soybean replacement program in the pipelines, i.e. synthetic science + cheap power = future industrial substitutes. Because soybean conundrum is arable land (all sorts of soybean yield, lack of GMO, small plot farmer complexity mixed in), but pork prices fall under broad food (national) security so expect autarky > comparative advantage / cost when domestic pipeline in place. Like there's no reason for PRC to pay US soybean premium over Brazil, but they would because economic viability not as important.

TBH Anything strategic, expect PRC to adopt energy-to-matter to substitutes when the teach stack is figured out. Or at least have as less economic backup, i.e. PRC has unlimited cheap fertilizer (was top fertilizer producer via coal gasification) just more emission heavy. They're on way to displace all oil imports with coal to olefin/liquidation and EV. HQ steel via simply hammering energy into mid ores. All signs point they're moving towards strategic domestic abundance / autarky where they can.

Re: 2025 Letter

#110
post #2

I recommend Dan’s book ( https://danwang.co/breakneck/ ) to those wanting to better understand China - and the United States.

+1, it's a great read.

It also defies easy summaries, but my biggest takeaways were that 1) the CCP really doesn't care about the costs any of its policies (one-child, zero COVID, etc) impose on its citizenry, and 2) that the CCP is actively preparing China for a world where it's entirely cut off from the West, because it realizes that's the price to pay for invading Taiwan.

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