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Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design (2011) [pdf]

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101–110 of 114 posts

Re: Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design (2011) [pdf]

#101
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He promises 10, gives the world 4, but everybody else has 1, and he's hated for it.

I can't think of any breakthrough successes Musk has had within the last 5 years, unless you count helping the current president get elected. If the promising but still incomplete Starship was on the same pace as the exceptionally successful Falcon 9, it would have already delivered cargo to orbit by now. His rates appear to be slipping.

I think landing a skyscraper on October 13, 2024 qualifies as a breakthrough. Well predicted and expected, but still.

Re: Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design (2011) [pdf]

#102

What's the story with the Avro C102 (per law 20)? What's the connection with "A bad design with a good presentation is doomed eventually. A good design with a bad presentation is doomed immediately"? I'm intrigued.

Two references come to mind – the first is that the Avro C102 was beat by the de Havilland Comet, which was an example of a bad design with a good presentation. It had a series of mysterious hull losses that were eventually attributed metal fatigue accumulating around a square cut-out in the hull. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Havilland_Comet#Comet_disas... The second, more depressingly, is that the Avro C102 was…

I'll argue that Comet was a good design, but with too many unknowns being solved at once - while we had limited experience with pressurization the comet took more cycles, and had a much higher service ceiling.

I dont think the Comet was a materially worse design than the Avro C102 (both aircraft are similar) and the C102 may very well have had other unknown issues only to be found if it went into series production.

Re: Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design (2011) [pdf]

#103
post #40

> "Trellis coded modulation got this rate up to 50 kilobaud by the 1990s" Not quite, and an interesting story that fits these engineering maxims better than you might think. An analog channel with the bandwidth and SNR characteristics of a landline phone line has (IIRC) a Shannon capacity of 30-something kbit/s, which was closely approached with V.34, which used trellis coded modulation plus basically every other cod…

> An analog channel with the bandwidth and SNR characteristics of a landline phone line has (IIRC) a Shannon capacity of 30-something kbit/s,

The problem is that the ADC in the telephone exchange is not clocked coherently to your modem. You're paying various companding, quantization (time and level), etc, losses-- it is not a nice linear channel.

An end-to-end analog connection could be capable of significantly more-- while there's noise, there's no "8KHz cliff." A 45dB SNR for 0-4KHz has a >60kbps Shannon bandwidth, and there's not exactly a 4KHz cliff even with loading coils present.

Re: Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design (2011) [pdf]

#104
post #29

> The schedule you develop will seem like a complete work of fiction up until the time your customer fires you for not meeting it. (Law 23) So will Musk finally be fired in 2026?

He promises 10, gives the world 4, but everybody else has 1, and he's hated for it.

maaaaybe it was the Nazi salute

Re: Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design (2011) [pdf]

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trying to get milk out of the kind of cattle one raises for beef is a pretty good analogy for using an IPO to offload a questionable company onto the public.

realy like the cattle analogy, and it can be extended further, Dexter cattle are dual use cattle, and the worlds smallest breed, so increadably popular for small acerages and single family cows, so in a way the type of thing that is terrifying for big operations, as they are not monetisable at scale, but idealy suited to a distributed network that is also a peer to peer economical exchange.

I wish I knew more about cattle to add to the analogy but I do very much appreciate it as is.

Re: Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design (2011) [pdf]

#106
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell us. What inspired you to say this?

I was a grad student in Dave Akin's lab from 1994-2003. Like many labs, we had a journal club. Once a week (Wednesday, I think) somebody would give a presentation over lunch on a paper they'd read. We would get takeout Chinese and eat while discussing the paper. On this particular Wednesday the presentation was on a failed spacecraft program. It's been a long time, but I think it was probably this paper: https://llis…

Thank you for posting this!

Re: Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design (2011) [pdf]

#107
post #60
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it’s more like HomeModem ←A→ Exchange1 ←D→ Exchange2 ←A→ ISPModem. The digital parts were all inside the telco’s networks that connect the exchanges to each other. > Couldn't you send data at megabits per seconds over a mile long copper wire without using modems at all (using just UARTs?). No. The exchange is sampling the analog signal coming in over your phone line at 8kHz and 8 bits per sample. They just design…

The S/CNN for both trunk and nonloaded subscriber loop circuits shall not be less than 31 dB. 4kHz/2*log2(1+10^(31dB/10)) ~ 60.3kBps [0] https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-7/subtitle-B/chapter-XVII...

Thank you!

Re: Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design (2011) [pdf]

#108
post #40

> "Trellis coded modulation got this rate up to 50 kilobaud by the 1990s" Not quite, and an interesting story that fits these engineering maxims better than you might think. An analog channel with the bandwidth and SNR characteristics of a landline phone line has (IIRC) a Shannon capacity of 30-something kbit/s, which was closely approached with V.34, which used trellis coded modulation plus basically every other cod…

Not quite, and an interesting story that fits these engineering maxims better than you might think. Huh? The SotA for dial-up modems in the 1990s was indeed 56 kbps, achieved with various encoding and compression hacks in both domains including trellis coding. Weirdly enough, you can apparently still buy them from US Robotics: https://www.usr.com/products/56k-dial-up-modems/

Thanks!

Re: Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design (2011) [pdf]

#109
post #103
post #40

> "Trellis coded modulation got this rate up to 50 kilobaud by the 1990s" Not quite, and an interesting story that fits these engineering maxims better than you might think. An analog channel with the bandwidth and SNR characteristics of a landline phone line has (IIRC) a Shannon capacity of 30-something kbit/s, which was closely approached with V.34, which used trellis coded modulation plus basically every other cod…

> An analog channel with the bandwidth and SNR characteristics of a landline phone line has (IIRC) a Shannon capacity of 30-something kbit/s, The problem is that the ADC in the telephone exchange is not clocked coherently to your modem. You're paying various companding, quantization (time and level), etc, losses-- it is not a nice linear channel. An end-to-end analog connection could be capable of significantly more-…

Thank you so very much!

Re: Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design (2011) [pdf]

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but I want everybody to do it. I've seen too many times where a person presented an idea to a group, the idea was publicly shunned by the group, then later a few members of the group discussed the idea in private amongst each other as good. When I was the one who presented something poorly, I've even had people who publicly shunned it privately tell me they support the idea but the group rejects is so they reje…

Wow are they that cuthroat? Sounds like politics not regular dev work. Must be Google I would guess :)

I got agree must be the Google
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