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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#101

Post by rvz »

MangoCoffee wrote: post #36
threethirtytwo wrote: post #5

Ai is currently a bubble. But that is just a short term phenomenon. Ultimately what AI currently is and what the trend-line indicates what AI will become will change the economy in ways that will dwarf the current bubble. But this is only if the trend-line keeps going, which is a likely possibility given the last couple of years. I think people are making the mistake that AI is a bubble and therefore AI is completely…

Google said the dotcom bubble is roughly from 1995 to 2001. That's about 6 years. ChatGPT was released in 2022. Claude AI was released in 2023. DeepSeek was released in 2023. Let's just say the AI bubble started in 2023. We still have about 3 years, more or less, until the AI bubble pops. I do believe we are in the build out phase of the AI bubble, much like the dotcom bubble, where Cisco routers, Sun Microsystems se…

> Let's just say the AI bubble started in 2023. We still have about 3 years, more or less, until the AI bubble pops.

Minimum 3 years and at a hard maximum of 6 years from now.

We'll see lots of so called AI companies fold and there will be a select few winners that stay on.

So I'd give my crash timelines at around 2029 to 2031 for a significant correction turned crash.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#102

Post by empath75 »

languagehacker wrote: post #54

Impressive that you have have that many assets under management and still not show a clear understanding of an industry you're prognosticating on. The author doesn't talk at all about the hardware aspect of this stuff such as the surprisingly short lifetime of the GPUs that are being rolled out at a break-neck pace. The recommendation that you take a moderate investment position and not overdo it could be shared with…

> The author doesn't talk at all about the hardware aspect of this stuff such as the surprisingly short lifetime of the GPUs that are being rolled out at a break-neck pace.

I am not sure why that is interesting. Nobody thinks of these chips as long term assets that they are investing in. Cloud providers have always amortized their computers over ~5 years. It would be very surprising if AI companies were doing much different -- maybe even a shorter time line.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#103

Post by [deleted] »

shakna wrote: post #74
esafak wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They do. Where did you get this? All the providers have clauses like this: "4.1. Generally. Customer and Customer’s End Users may provide Input and receive Output. As between Customer and OpenAI, to the extent permitted by applicable law, Customer: (a) retains all ownership rights in Input; and (b) owns all Output. OpenAI hereby assigns to Customer all OpenAI’s right, title, and interest, if any, in and to Output." h…

The outputs of AI are most likely in the public domain. As automated process output are public domain, and the companies claim fair use when scraping, making the input unencumbered, too. It wouldn't be OpenAI holding copyright - it would be no one holding copyright.

[deleted]

Re: Is it a bubble?

#104

Post by whoknowsidont »

NewsaHackO wrote: post #45
whoknowsidont wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not. And if your team is doing this you're not "advanced." Lots of people are outing themselves these days about the complexity of their jobs, or lack thereof. Which is great! But it's not a +1 for AI, it's a -1 for them.

Part of the issue is that I think you are underestimating the number of people not doing "advanced" programming. If it's around ~80-90%, then that's a lot of +1s for AI

Why do you feel like I'm underestimating the # of people not doing advanced programming?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#105

Post by 20after4 »

sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

I've had claude code compose complex AWS infrastructure (using pulumi IAC) that mostly works from a one-shot prompt.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#106

Post by jesuslop »

cal_dent wrote: post #48

I think this gives an excellent framework for how to think of this. Is it a bubble? Who knows is a perfectly valid answer. I do think there’s something quite ironic that one of the frequent criticisms of LLMs are that they can’t really say “I don’t know”. Yet if someone says that they get criticised. No surprises that our tools are the same.

[flagged]

Re: Is it a bubble?

#107

Post by mcv »

calebm wrote: post #51
bossyTeacher wrote: post #13

"Coding performed by AI is at a world-class level". Once I hit that line, I stopped reading. This tells me this person didn't do proper research on this matter.

I recently had ChatGPT refactor an entire mathematical graph rendering logic that I wrote in vanilla js, and had it rewrite it as GLSL. It took about an hour overall (required a few prompts). That is world-class level in my opinion.

I'm currently trying to get Claude Sonnet 4.5 to produce a graph rendering algorithm, and while it's producing results, they're not the right results. I should probably do this myself and let the AI handle just the boilerplate code.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#108

Post by NewsaHackO »

whoknowsidont wrote: post #104
NewsaHackO wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of the issue is that I think you are underestimating the number of people not doing "advanced" programming. If it's around ~80-90%, then that's a lot of +1s for AI

Why do you feel like I'm underestimating the # of people not doing advanced programming?

Theoretically, if AI can do 80-90% of programming jobs (the ones not in the "advanced" group), that would be an unequivocal +1 for AI.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#109

Post by bcrosby95 »

shakna wrote: post #74
esafak wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They do. Where did you get this? All the providers have clauses like this: "4.1. Generally. Customer and Customer’s End Users may provide Input and receive Output. As between Customer and OpenAI, to the extent permitted by applicable law, Customer: (a) retains all ownership rights in Input; and (b) owns all Output. OpenAI hereby assigns to Customer all OpenAI’s right, title, and interest, if any, in and to Output." h…

The outputs of AI are most likely in the public domain. As automated process output are public domain, and the companies claim fair use when scraping, making the input unencumbered, too. It wouldn't be OpenAI holding copyright - it would be no one holding copyright.

Courts have already leaned this way too, but who knows what'll happen when companies with large legal funds enter the arena.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#110

Post by doug_durham »

stack_framer wrote: post #58
f154hfds wrote: post #38

The post script was pretty sobering. It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. This is a pretty depressing place to be, because most emerging technologies provide us with exciting new possibilities whereas this technology seems only exciting for management stressed about payroll. It's true that the technology currently works as an e…

> It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. Same here, and I think it's because I feel like a craftsman. I thoroughly enjoy the process of thinking deeply about what I will build, breaking down the work into related chunks, and of course writing the code itself. It's like magic when it all comes together. Sometimes I can't even beli…

Writing code is my passion, and like you I'm amazed I get paid to do it. That said in any new project there is a large swath of code that needs to be written that I've written many times before. I'm happy to let the LLM write the low value code so I can work on the interesting parts. Examples of this type of code are argument parsers and interfacing with REST interfaces. I add no value there.
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