101–110 of 110 posts
Tesla is currently sitting near a $1.5T valuation with $1.47 earnings per share based entirely on AI vaporware. The adjustment to reality cannot come soon enough.
Stock market crash? I believe less and less a 1929 style crash is possible. Tesla, Uber, hell, look at GameStop still... The market is rigged. The US and the upper class needs numbers go up, the numbers will go up. The only way an adjustment to such stock prices would come is if US power and dollar vanes. There is a chance now this will happen, but I guess it will still take a long time.
> The US and the upper class needs numbers go up, the numbers will go up. You don't think anyone had ever tried that prior to past crashes?
I've never felt right about the framing of "destroying wealth" when stock prices go to some new number. If anything, the word "reflecting" seems more applicable?
Also: "The stock market is the only market where people complain when things go on sale." -Warren Buffet If you're in a "selling stock" part of your life I understand, but if you're in a "buying stock" part of your life it's worth reflecting on the quote until you can shake the "recent price action IS investor psychology" out of your head.
I've never felt right about the framing of "destroying wealth" when stock prices go to some new number. If anything, the word "reflecting" seems more applicable?
I've never felt right about the framing of "destroying wealth" when stock prices go to some new number. If anything, the word "reflecting" seems more applicable?
Also: "The stock market is the only market where people complain when things go on sale." -Warren Buffet If you're in a "selling stock" part of your life I understand, but if you're in a "buying stock" part of your life it's worth reflecting on the quote until you can shake the "recent price action IS investor psychology" out of your head.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think that is likely this time. Injecting capital to cover losses doesn't bring back the forward looking valuations so stock prices would remain down anyway. Gov isn't going to fund losses for like Microsoft.
The top 10% will not be left holding the bag. They will get a bailout by the taxpayer in some form or another, like quantitative easing (Fed purchasing) or some national security plan spending trillions. Note almost all members of US Congress, both parties, invests in these stocks heavily.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The US and the upper class needs numbers go up, the numbers will go up. You don't think anyone had ever tried that prior to past crashes?
Maybe they were just bad at it and didn't get enough buy-in.
Why does it matter? Government learned during covid they can spend there way out of a crash.
But since then the other countries learned that the US government could weaponize their USD holdings if they don't align. Central banks started accumulating gold to counter this. Also, debt market is not the same as it was 5 years ago, Japan now has inflation (and they hold the biggest bag of US debt). To add to this, USD lost 10% of its value this 2025 according to the DXY index. To be fair, it pretty much went to w…
Are there any tools to take your existing porfolio and play out scenarios like this? Eg positions in 100+ stocks aggregated from 401k, Roth, 529, etc and see best guesses as to how I'm exposed?
Portfoliovisualizer.com but I’ll save you some time it won’t be pretty. Just make a truly diverse portfolio and never worry. Lots of efficient portfolios explored here. https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/three-secret-ingredie...