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The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

ceodinner.substack.com

101–110 of 218 posts

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#101

I'm excited for the AI wildfire to come and engulf these AI-written thinkpieces. At this point I'd prefer a set of bullet points over having to sift through more "it's not X (emdash) it's Y" pestilence.

> "it's not X (emdash) it's Y" pestilence.

I wonder for how long this will keep working. Can't be too hard to prompt an AI to avoid "tells" like this one...

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#102
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Dentists offices that only need 1 receptionist instead of 2. A dramatic reduction in front line tier 1 customer support reps. Translation teams laid off. Documentation teams dramatically reduced. Data entry teams replaced by vision models.

That's a cool dream, but my question is: is it happening? Out of the things you listed the only ones that seem plausible are translation team and data entry team, though even there, I'd want humans to deslop the output.

I'm telling you of what I've either worked on or seen myself.

Just a couple days ago a scheduled a furnace repair through an AI receptionist on the phone.

Layoffs in tech support and customer service already happened last year.

Entry level sales jobs doing cold calling have been replaced all over the place.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#103

I'm excited for the AI wildfire to come and engulf these AI-written thinkpieces. At this point I'd prefer a set of bullet points over having to sift through more "it's not X (emdash) it's Y" pestilence.

Even if bubble burst will be massive, the slop factories will not stop with using it, because it's one of the use cases LLMs are just good at

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#104
post #98
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think maybe that was implied, considering the topic of conversation and website we’re on. That said if you’re making $250k+ a year and not on track to retire by 50, seriously please open a retirement calculator and figure out what you need to do to get there.

$250k+ a year means ~$12k monthly salary. A semi decent apartment in SV will cost you ~$3k Bills(phone, internet, electricity, etc) another $1k. If you are married, groceries at least $1k. Even if we assume you don’t do anything else in life, and you are in perfect health best case scenario would be $6k savings a month or $72k a year. It would take you 10 years to save $720k plus whatever you make from investments. T…

why would you would be saving for house and renting at same time ?

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#105
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Dentists offices that only need 1 receptionist instead of 2. A dramatic reduction in front line tier 1 customer support reps. Translation teams laid off. Documentation teams dramatically reduced. Data entry teams replaced by vision models.

Historically, this is not how technology that improves productivity has affected the economy. I’d encourage you to learn more about economics and the history of automation.

Doing this stuff is literally my job.

Large banks have tens of thousands of call center employees and a large % of calls they handle are perfectly solvable with a good AI bot. They are working very hard to cut call center staff as quickly as possible.

People don't realize how much a call to customers service costs. Back when I was at MSFT, a call to tech support for our product costs $20 to have someone pick up the phone. Since we were selling low margin HW, a single call to tech support completely erased the profit from that product's sale.

Layoffs have already happened and they will continue to happen.

One can argue this is a positive, as a customer if I can push a few buttons and issue a voice command to an AI to fix my problem instead of waiting on hold, that is a net positive. Also the price of goods will drop since the expected cost of customer service factored into the product price will drop.

E.g. $30 / support call, 1 in 10 customers call support during the lifetime of a product, $3 saved, but the way costs are structured, $3 saved in manufacturing can end up as nearly $10 off the final retail price of a product.

(And in competitive markets prices do drop when cost savings are found!)

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#106
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$250k+ a year means ~$12k monthly salary. A semi decent apartment in SV will cost you ~$3k Bills(phone, internet, electricity, etc) another $1k. If you are married, groceries at least $1k. Even if we assume you don’t do anything else in life, and you are in perfect health best case scenario would be $6k savings a month or $72k a year. It would take you 10 years to save $720k plus whatever you make from investments. T…

why would you would be saving for house and renting at same time ?

Because you need to have enough saved for a downpayment?

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you’re making engineer money, SV & big tech engineer money. Majority of engineering fields do not make that kind of money to retire at 50. Comfortable compared to the rest of the country, sure.

When you can retire depends on how little you need. Though, of course, if you're living from investment income you should be aware you're living off the work of other people.

Unless you're churning your own butter and manufacturing your own solar panels, isn't retirement inherently living off other people regardless of income?

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a cool dream, but my question is: is it happening? Out of the things you listed the only ones that seem plausible are translation team and data entry team, though even there, I'd want humans to deslop the output.

I think that is it happening is an important question, but “does the consumer actually want it to happen” should be equally important. It won’t be, because the c suite will just make the decision for us all, but it ought to be.

If done properly you shouldn't be able to tell. A really good voice AI assistant is indistinguishable from front line support reading through a script, and potentially a few steps better.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#110

I'm excited for the AI wildfire to come and engulf these AI-written thinkpieces. At this point I'd prefer a set of bullet points over having to sift through more "it's not X (emdash) it's Y" pestilence.

I’m just glad everyone stopped posting their perfect prompting strategies.
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