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Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

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Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#101

Post by rob_c »

hhh wrote: post #60
andy99 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it doesn’t. I’m not trying to make a point about vaccines, just that the study is a population study and so shows benefits on average to a population. If the vaccine killed 1/100 people (again I don’t believe this but it’s the internet) but made the other 99 immune to dying over the 4 years, it would look really good on average even if it was directly responsible for the deaths of 1%.

1% mortality would be setting off sirens during this kind of trial

Yes, a 1% mortality either way would. Yet for some reason we're focused on just one of the possibly results of the decision tree

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#102

Post by pygy_ »

zosima wrote: post #61
eddieroger wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Frame it as the safety of the vaccine, not the efficacy of it. If it was about efficacy, it would lead with the 25% lower risk because of COVID safety. But, these days, there are people who think vaccines are dangerous just because, so saying that taking the vaccine or not has equal mortality puts that to rest (or at least does for those who find science real).

The reduction in all-cause mortality was independent of covid deaths. Which seems to suggest that there was big differences between the groups other than the vaccination. This of course does not change that the vaccine seems mostly safe, but it definitely calls in to question whether the protection against covid death was vaccine-mediated or due to some other difference between the groups. Therefore this paper is mod…

The vaccinnated group was 1 year older on average, and had mode cardiovascular risk factors.

Covid has long term health consequences, and these are proportional to the severity of the acute infection.

People who died of a stroke of a heart infarction 6 months down the line were not counted as "covid death", even though covid is known to increase their incidence in the next year.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#103

Post by hervature »

ceejayoz wrote: post #97
hervature wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at Table 2 and as the name suggests, COVID is included in "all-cause" mortality. Your statement does not follow because it could have made COVID outcomes better yet "all-other" causes worse for a neutral "no increase in all-cause". If you look at Table 2, you can see that the vaccinated group is less mortality in all diseases. That being said, as much as I think this is over-stated, this is very much a correl…

Read again. > After standardizing the characteristics of vaccinated individuals to those of unvaccinated individuals, we observed a 25% lower standardized incidence of all-cause death in vaccinated individuals compared with unvaccinated ones… > Vaccinated individuals had a lower risk of death compared with unvaccinated individuals regardless of the cause of death. > All-cause mortality was lower within 6 months follo…

You should read my statement again.

If COVID vaccines reduces COVID deaths by 100% and increase everything else by 0.01%, you will still have a reduction in "all-cause" mortality yet your chances of dying by anything else has increased. I already said Table 2 does not show this is happening and in fact vaccinated individuals have better outcomes across the board. However, people are drawing this conclusion (even though they are correct) incorrectly without looking at the data.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#104

Post by rob_c »

ceejayoz wrote: post #57
blindriver wrote: post #42

They define unvaccinated as anyone in the study who didn't get their first dose by Nov 2021. That feels like a pretty tight window to me. I don't think they checked to see if those "unvaccinated" people got vaccinated during the 4 year followup, especially given the mandates that forced people to get them.

That's a year into its availability in France. Anyone who didn't have their first dose by then probably wasn't getting a dose. You can see that in this chart (click the 5Y range): https://ycharts.com/indicators/france_coronavirus_full_vacci... It's the full vaccination rate; as of Dec 1 2021 it was 69.89%. A month later (i.e. those Nov folks are getting their second dose) it's 74%; latest number on the chart is 78.44…

> That's a year into its availability in France. Anyone who didn't have their first dose by then probably wasn't getting a dose.

You are aware of the "incentives" offered by the French govt?

Such wonderful options as the ability to go the shops without being arrested that came with, "take the mandated medicine".

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#105

Post by altcognito »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #98
zosima wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reduction in all-cause mortality was independent of covid deaths. Which seems to suggest that there was big differences between the groups other than the vaccination. This of course does not change that the vaccine seems mostly safe, but it definitely calls in to question whether the protection against covid death was vaccine-mediated or due to some other difference between the groups. Therefore this paper is mod…

A 25% reduction is huge, even if you account for the fact that people who get vaccines tend to be more health conscious to begin with, when you consider that outside of the very sick and very old Covid has a mortality rate under 1%.

> Covid has a mortality rate under 1%.

I hate it when blanket statements like this creep in.

Which Covid? The initial version was definitely more deadly than later versions.

What about future covids? Are you willing to guarantee every version of covid from here on out will be less deadly? It is the general case to be true, but it is not some sort of law.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#106

Post by ceejayoz »

andy99 wrote: post #49
arnoooooo wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This study demonstrates that it benefits the individual (and therefore the population).

No it doesn’t. I’m not trying to make a point about vaccines, just that the study is a population study and so shows benefits on average to a population. If the vaccine killed 1/100 people (again I don’t believe this but it’s the internet) but made the other 99 immune to dying over the 4 years, it would look really good on average even if it was directly responsible for the deaths of 1%.

This comment helps me understand how folks see "your taxes will go up $10k but you won't pay $20k in health insurance premiums" as a hit to the pocketbook.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#107

Post by arp242 »

Palomides wrote: post #52
laichzeit0 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, this is an observational study and when you get to the confounding part, they kind of shrug their shoulders and say “well, we included a bunch of covariates that should reduce make the bias go away”, but there’s no causal diagram so we have no idea how they reasoned about this. If you’ve read even something layman friendly like Pearl’s Book of Why you should be feeling nervous about this.

doing a double blind study of a vaccine that seems to work very well for a potentially lethal disease seems morally questionable

Besides, homeopathy has been studied for ages with tons and tons of quality studies.

Did it get rid of all the homeopathic quackery?

They will always have an excuse. If all else fails it'll just be a vague generic "oh yeah, it's just something deeper your science can't measure yet" or something along those lines. The Queen was an amateur hand-waver in comparison.

Never mind it was never very likely to work in the first place, on account of defying basic logic on several levels: like cures like, the whole water memory business, the more you dilute the stronger it becomes – nothing about this makes any sense.

I miss the days when worry about the adverse effects of homeopathy was the top concern...

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#108

Post by purpleflame1257 »

hannob wrote: post #31

I found the intro very confusing, tbh. Particularly the "no increased risk of all-cause mortality". I mean, if we assume the vaccines worked, we'd certainly expect a decreased risk of all-case mortality (because "all-case mortality" certainly includes "covid mortality"). Reading "no increase" seems to imply "it doesn't change anything". Yeah, technically, the sentence does not say that ("no increase" can mean "no dec…

It's interesting that they leave things at 18-59. Do they later stratify into 18-28, 29-38, 39-48, 48-58?

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#109

Post by ceejayoz »

rob_c wrote: post #104
ceejayoz wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a year into its availability in France. Anyone who didn't have their first dose by then probably wasn't getting a dose. You can see that in this chart (click the 5Y range): https://ycharts.com/indicators/france_coronavirus_full_vacci... It's the full vaccination rate; as of Dec 1 2021 it was 69.89%. A month later (i.e. those Nov folks are getting their second dose) it's 74%; latest number on the chart is 78.44…

> That's a year into its availability in France. Anyone who didn't have their first dose by then probably wasn't getting a dose. You are aware of the "incentives" offered by the French govt? Such wonderful options as the ability to go the shops without being arrested that came with, "take the mandated medicine".

That's entirely irrelevant to "what date do we pick as the cutoff for this research?"

From the chart, they picked a very reasonable spot to draw said line.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#110

Post by jgalt212 »

ertgbnm wrote: post #77
theptip wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The increase in myocarditis from the vaccine is well-documented. (And very small.) COVID causes myocarditis too (even for young people unlikely to die from COVID itself), at much higher rates. So you only need a 20% chance of contracting COVID for the vaccine to be net positive in the least obviously positive age group.

non-scientific but every young person I know has had covid at least twice.

and how many young persons do you know that have had COVID-induced myocarditis?
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