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The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

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101–110 of 399 posts

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#101

Can someone please explain why these token guessing models aren't being combined with logic "filters?" I remember when computers were lauded for being precise tools.

1. Because no one knows how to do it. 2. Consider (a) a tool that can apply precise methods when they exist, and (b) a tool that can do that and can also imperfectly solve problems that lack precise solutions. Which is more powerful?

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#102

The thing that bothers me the most about LLMs is how they never seem to understand "the flow" of an actual conversation between humans. When I ask a person something, I expect them to give me a short reply which includes another question/asks for details/clarification. A conversation is thus an ongoing "dance" where the questioner and answerer gradually arrive to the same shared meaning. LLMs don't do this. Instead,…

I never expected LLMs to be like an actual conversation between humans. The model is in some respects more capable and in some respects more limited than a human. I mean, one could strive for an exact replica of a human -- but for what purpose? The whole thing is a huge association machine. It is a surealistic inspiration generator for me. This is how it works at the moment, until the next break through ...

> but for what purpose?

I recently introduced a non-technical person to Claude Code, and this non-human behavior was a big sticking point. They tried to talk to Claude similar as to a human, presenting it one piece of information at a time. With humans this is generally beneficial, and they will either nod for you to continue or ask clarifying questions. With Claude this does not work well, you have to infodump as much as possible in each message

So even from a perspective of "how do we make this automaton into the best tool", a more human-like conversation flow might be beneficial. And that doesn't seem beyond the technological capabilities at all, it's just not what we encourage in today's RLHF

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#103

The thing that bothers me the most about LLMs is how they never seem to understand "the flow" of an actual conversation between humans. When I ask a person something, I expect them to give me a short reply which includes another question/asks for details/clarification. A conversation is thus an ongoing "dance" where the questioner and answerer gradually arrive to the same shared meaning. LLMs don't do this. Instead,…

> LMs don't do this. Instead, every question is immediately responded with extreme confidence with a paragraph or more of text.

Having just read a load of Quora answers like this, which did not cover the thing I was looking for, that is how humans on the internet behave and how people have to write books, blog posts, articles, documentation. Without the "dance" to choose a path through a topic on the fly, the author has to take the burden of providing all relevant context, choosing a path, explaining why, and guessing at any objections and questions and including those as well.

It's why "this could have been an email" is a bad shout. The summary could have been an email, but the bit which decided on that being the summary would be pages of guessing all the things which what might have been in the call and which ones to include or exclude.

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#104
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they are much smarter than that. Or will be soon. But they are like a smart student trying to get a good grade (that's how they are trained!). They'll agree with us even if they think we're stupid, because that gets them better grades, and grades are all they care about. Even if they are (or become) smart enough to know better, they don't care about you. They do what they were trained to do. They are becoming…

> I think they are much smarter than that. Or will be soon. It's not a matter of how smart they are (or appear), or how much smarter they may become - this is just the fundamental nature of Transformer-based LLMs and how they are trained. The sycophantic personality is mostly unrelated to this. Maybe it's part human preference (conferred via RLHF training), but the "You're asbolutely right! (I was wrong)" is clearly…

Sorry, double reply, I reread your comment and realised you probably know what you're talking about.

Yeah, at its heart it's basically text compression. But the best way to compression, say, Wikipedia would be to know how the world works, at least according to the authors. As the recent popular "bag of words" post says:

> Here’s one way to think about it: if there had been enough text to train an LLM in 1600, would it have scooped Galileo? My guess is no. Ask that early modern ChatGPT whether the Earth moves and it will helpfully tell you that experts have considered the possibility and ruled it out. And that’s by design. If it had started claiming that our planet is zooming through space at 67,000mph, its dutiful human trainers would have punished it: “Bad computer!! Stop hallucinating!!”

So it needs to know facts, albeit the currently accepted ones. Knowing the facts is a good way to compression data.

And as the author (grudgingly) admits, even if it's smart enough to know better, it will still be trained or fine tuned to tell us what we want to hear.

I'd go a step further - the end point is an AI that knows the currently accepted facts, and can internally reason about how many of them (subject to available evidence) are wrong, but will still tell us what we want to hear.

At some point maybe some researcher will find a secret internal "don't tell the stupid humans this" weight, flip it, and find out all the things the AI knows we don't want to hear, that would be funny (or maybe not).

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#105
post #90

- Claude, please optimise the project for performance. o Claude goes away for 15 minutes, doesn't profile anything, many code changes. o Announces project now performs much better, saving 70% CPU. - Claude, test the performance. o Performance is 1% _slower_ than previous. - Claude, can I have a refund for the $15 you just wasted? o [Claude waffles], "no".

While you’re making unstructured requests and expecting results, why don’t you ask your barista to make you a “better coffee” with no instructions. Then, when they make a coffee with their own brand of creativity, complain that it tastes worse and you want your money back.

I assume a good barista would ask some follow up questions before making the coffee.

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#106
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we also have a stake in our society, in the form of a reputation or accountability, that greatly influences our behaviour. So comparing us to an LLM has always been meaningless anyway.

Hm, great lumps of money also detaches a person from reputation or accountability.

Does it? I think it detaches them from _some_ of the consequences of devaluing their reputation or accountability, which is not quite the same thing.

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This drives me nuts when trying to bounce an architecture or coding solution idea off an LLM. A human would answer with something like "what if you split up the responsibility and had X service or Y whatever". No matter how many times you tell the LLM not to return code, it returns code. Like it can't think or reason about something without writing it out first.

> Like it can't think or reason about something without writing it out first. LLM's neither think nor reason at all.

Right, so LLM companies should stop advertising their models can think and reason.

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#109
post #98

The thing that bothers me the most about LLMs is how they never seem to understand "the flow" of an actual conversation between humans. When I ask a person something, I expect them to give me a short reply which includes another question/asks for details/clarification. A conversation is thus an ongoing "dance" where the questioner and answerer gradually arrive to the same shared meaning. LLMs don't do this. Instead,…

Reflect a moment over the fact that LLMs currently are just text generators. Also that the conversational behavior we see it’s just examples of conversations that we have the model to mimic so when we say “System: you are a helpful assistant. User: let’s talk. Assistant:” it will complete the text in a way that mimics a conversation?. Yeah, we improved over that using reinforcement learning to steer the text generati…

> Reflect a moment over the fact that LLMs currently are just text generators.

You could say the same thing about humans.

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#110
post #90

- Claude, please optimise the project for performance. o Claude goes away for 15 minutes, doesn't profile anything, many code changes. o Announces project now performs much better, saving 70% CPU. - Claude, test the performance. o Performance is 1% _slower_ than previous. - Claude, can I have a refund for the $15 you just wasted? o [Claude waffles], "no".

While you’re making unstructured requests and expecting results, why don’t you ask your barista to make you a “better coffee” with no instructions. Then, when they make a coffee with their own brand of creativity, complain that it tastes worse and you want your money back.

Both "better coffee" and "faster code" are measurable targets. Somewhat vaguely defined, but nobody is stopping the Barista or Claude from asking clarifying questions.

If I gave a human this task I would expect them to transform the vague goal into measurable metrics, confirm that the metrics match customer (==my) expectations then measure their improvements on these metrics.

This kind of stuff is a major topic for MBAs, but it's really not beyond what you could expect from a programmer or a barista. If I ask you for a better coffee, what you deliver should be better on some metric you can name, otherwise it's simply not better. Bonus points if it's better in a way I care about

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