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X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch

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Re: X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch

#102

The Swiss Weather Office official app has a crowdsourced photo gallery: https://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/services-et-publications/ap... Look at the pictures from 3AM onwards on the 12 of November: you'll have a nice overview of how the aurora looked like from Switzerland (it's a time sensitive app and they certainly don't keep the pictures forever).

The curvature of the Earth can be deducted from those photos on the map! It is clear to see the aurora completely above the horizon in the Northern Swiss photos, and straddling the horizon in the photos from the south.

Re: X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch

#103
post #20

You can see the real time magnetic field change when it hits: https://dasi.barlow.cpi.com/dashboard

This seems to be a distinct but similar magnetometer network, with global reach, https://intermagnet.org/data_download.html Example data, (Neumayer Station III in Antarctica) https://imag-data.bgs.ac.uk/GIN_V1/GINForms2?observatoryIaga... I wonder why there doesn't seem to be any website with a map view of all of the planet's magnetometers. Looks like there should be more than enough data to make an interesting livem…

>I wonder why there doesn't seem to be any website with a map view of all of the planet's magnetometers. Looks like there should be more than enough data to make an interesting livemap.

Another project for the queue...

Re: X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch

#105

The Swiss Weather Office official app has a crowdsourced photo gallery: https://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/services-et-publications/ap... Look at the pictures from 3AM onwards on the 12 of November: you'll have a nice overview of how the aurora looked like from Switzerland (it's a time sensitive app and they certainly don't keep the pictures forever).

This photo gallery also provides very nice pictures around Germany and the Alps: https://www.foto-webcam.eu/2025/11/12/0330

Re: X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch

#106

Is there a way to connect the Alert/Warnings/Watches from SWPC to specific events? It seems like there are at least three different solar events and it's hard for me to understand if they've all passed or if we're expecting more.

The CME from the X5.1 flare has not arrived yet. Here are the websites I use:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusia...

https://www.spaceweather.com/

https://space.umd.edu/pm/

Re: X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch

#107
post #106

Is there a way to connect the Alert/Warnings/Watches from SWPC to specific events? It seems like there are at least three different solar events and it's hard for me to understand if they've all passed or if we're expecting more.

The CME from the X5.1 flare has not arrived yet. Here are the websites I use: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusia... https://www.spaceweather.com/ https://space.umd.edu/pm/

That's what I'm most curious about -- how do you see that it hasn't arrived yet when you're looking at SWPC?

Here is the SWPC forecast [0]

Time_UTC,Nov_12,Nov_13,Nov_14

00-03UT,8.67 (G4),6.67 (G3),4.67 (G1)

03-06UT,8.33 (G4),6.33 (G2),4.00

06-09UT,7.00 (G3),6.00 (G2),3.33

09-12UT,7.00 (G3),4.67 (G1),3.67

12-15UT,6.00 (G2),4.00,3.33

15-18UT,5.67 (G2),3.33,3.00

18-21UT,7.67 (G4),4.33,3.00

21-00UT,6.00 (G2),4.67 (G1),3.33

So I guess 18-21UTC today it'll get around 7.7kP, but that's lower than what hit this morning, when I'd expect X5.1 to be larger? Is that how I should interpret this?

[0] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusia...

Re: X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch

#109
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CME from the X5.1 flare has not arrived yet. Here are the websites I use: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusia... https://www.spaceweather.com/ https://space.umd.edu/pm/

That's what I'm most curious about -- how do you see that it hasn't arrived yet when you're looking at SWPC? Here is the SWPC forecast [0] Time_UTC,Nov_12,Nov_13,Nov_14 00-03UT,8.67 (G4),6.67 (G3),4.67 (G1) 03-06UT,8.33 (G4),6.33 (G2),4.00 06-09UT,7.00 (G3),6.00 (G2),3.33 09-12UT,7.00 (G3),4.67 (G1),3.67 12-15UT,6.00 (G2),4.00,3.33 15-18UT,5.67 (G2),3.33,3.00 18-21UT,7.67 (G4),4.33,3.00 21-00UT,6.00 (G2),4.67 (G1),3.…

Yes, you have it correct.

However, predicting the effects of solar flares is very difficult. Not only does the particle stream have to hit the Earth, it has to couple with the magnetic field.

Large flares can cause small events on Earth and vice versa.

Re: X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch

#110
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what I'm most curious about -- how do you see that it hasn't arrived yet when you're looking at SWPC? Here is the SWPC forecast [0] Time_UTC,Nov_12,Nov_13,Nov_14 00-03UT,8.67 (G4),6.67 (G3),4.67 (G1) 03-06UT,8.33 (G4),6.33 (G2),4.00 06-09UT,7.00 (G3),6.00 (G2),3.33 09-12UT,7.00 (G3),4.67 (G1),3.67 12-15UT,6.00 (G2),4.00,3.33 15-18UT,5.67 (G2),3.33,3.00 18-21UT,7.67 (G4),4.33,3.00 21-00UT,6.00 (G2),4.67 (G1),3.…

Yes, you have it correct. However, predicting the effects of solar flares is very difficult. Not only does the particle stream have to hit the Earth, it has to couple with the magnetic field. Large flares can cause small events on Earth and vice versa.

Thanks for clarifying. I’m bummed that I didn’t prioritize going out last night to observe. I was thinking bigger glare would be better aurora tonight.
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