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OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

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Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also a pg essay from 2010: https://www.paulgraham.com/yahoo.html >By 1998, Yahoo was the beneficiary of a de facto Ponzi scheme. Investors were excited about the Internet. One reason they were excited was Yahoo's revenue growth. So they invested in new Internet startups. The startups then used the money to buy ads on Yahoo to get traffic. Which caused yet more revenue growth for Yahoo, and further convinced investors…

That's not how Ponzi schemes work. Yahoo had a defacto _monopoly_ and the market had bad discovery leading to bad price information. There was no point at which the internet was /not/ worth investing in and everyone who had experience with it knew that. The real problem seemed to be that you can only put so much money into pets.com before it becomes stupid. You had more short term investment capital than could be _ef…

Why is it so popular to "akshually, Ponzi schemes are different!" these days?

Words have meaning in context, and calling something a "Ponzi scheme" these days means any pyramid-like system that only works as long as new investors come to the table, because that new investor money is the sole source of gains for earlier investors. But once you run out of new investors, which is inevitable, the whole thing collapses. What pg described was exactly a Ponzi scheme in that sense, even if it wasn't a deliberate scam. And that's very different from other types of business ventures that eventually fail because of the more "normal" reason that they just don't gain traction.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#102
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same as capacity swaps in telecom of that era

This is How Larry Elisson beat Musk for a short while although Oracle was struggling.' The deals among Oracle, Nvidia, and OpenAI have raised concerns about their circular and potentially risky nature. Oracle is reportedly spending tens of billions on Nvidia's advanced chips, Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, and OpenAI uses Oracle's cloud infrastructure through Microsoft's Azure, creating a closed…

> while although Oracle was struggling

In terms of actual earnings not sure Tesla is doing better.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#103
post #7

Upvote because can someone explain to someone as dense as me, whether or not this is likely to make some likely AI bubble worse? Is this just how industry allocates capital?

>AI bubble worse?

Is it worse than the dot-com bubble? I remember everyone and their mom who knew HTML could get hired, and there were way more companies that went IPO during the dot-com bubble, like theglobe.com.

AI is a bubble, but is it worse than the dot-com bubble or the real estate bubble in 2008?

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All I want to know is, is the bubble going to pop next week, next month, or two years from now? Welcome to the casino! Please enjoy your stay, and remember: the house always wins ;)

It’s not a casino, I’ve been winning for years.

that doesnt make you nearly as special as you think

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#106
All clearly designed to cash in on the speculative value being given to AI companies.

Strategically I thought OpenAI's deal of getting 10% of AMD for driving their stock price to $600 was a pretty clever way of creating $97 Billion from nothing - effectively paying for the GPUs they'd purchase.

At the same time I would've thought this insider pump and cash-in strategy would be somehow illegal, but I guess anything goes with this administration.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#109
How are these "circular deals" different than Boeing (and other heavy civilian equipment makers) providing financing on purchases? My point: Is this simply clutching pearls over the AI/LLM bubble, or is there some substance to this concern?

And another: How does it compare against the new breed of Bitcoin treasuries, like Strategy (MSTR.OQ)? As I understand, Strategy uses secondary offerings to continuously see more shares, then uses the capital to buy more Bitcoin.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#110
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock buyback isn't a total scam as it seems, but it does mean "we can't figure out any productive use case for this cash in advancing R&D or scaling our business anymore" which is still pretty worrying

It’s more like, “the executives with lots of shares can’t see how to make the company grow, so they’ll just use profits to pump up the share price for their gain”. I deeply feel buybacks shouldn’t be illegal but treated shamefully. Instead of using profits to build up long term savings or fund R&D, they basically choose to do as little as possible. There is no vision.

Investments into vision can juice the stock price too. So they would do it if they had good realistic inspiring ideas
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