Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack • Hacker News Board

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#101

Post by js8 » Fri, Oct 03, 2025, 1:53 PM UTC

bootsmann wrote: post #63

js8 wrote: post #17

I am not sure what European "leaders" expected. Many of them support Ukraine militarily in the war, so yes, EU is in fact in war with Russia, through Ukraine as a proxy. I oppose the military support to Ukraine. I think it's responsibility of the stronger party, here NATO, to seek deescalation. I also disapprove that the military support for Ukraine was decided undemocratically, without any consideration whether this…

> I think it's responsibility of the stronger party, here NATO, to seek deescalation. NATO isn't fighting in Ukraine, Ukraine is fighting in Ukraine and Russia is the stronger party in that conflict.

> NATO isn't fighting in Ukraine

I think this view is delusional. NATO countries are supplying Ukraine with weapons, it's pretty conventional to consider this as being a party to the war.

The only reason we don't say it openly is that elites want to maintain pretense that we are not in a war (that's unpopular in Europe and US) and that NATO is defense-only organization.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#102

Post by rich_sasha » Fri, Oct 03, 2025, 1:56 PM UTC

chvid wrote: post #70

askonomm wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a joke, right? Diplomacy is something Russians completely disregard, lie about, and only agree to do when they are the only one benefiting, and even then only until they decide to break whatever agreements were made, because they've done so every single time so far. How do you have any diplomacy with someone like that? You can't.

Right now the US under Trump is leading the diplomatic efforts toward Russia. I think Europe and the Ukraine would have been better served with European leaders doing this.

Russia has reaffirmed Ukrainian territorial sovereignty in 1990s, after splitting along said boundaries, in return for concessions partly in their favour (Ukrainian nuclear disarmament), then invaded Ukraine. Twice. And that's ignoring tons of smaller violations - some of which are still pretty big.

What deal can you make with someone who just doesn't stick to the deals they agree to?

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#103

Post by AndrewDucker » Fri, Oct 03, 2025, 2:09 PM UTC

js8 wrote: post #100

af78 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is the aggressor in this war; if it stopped its aggression and withdrew from Ukraine, the war would stop. So the responsibility for deescalating falls squarely on Russia. Russia has no intention to stop; on the contrary it is ramping up the production of military equipment. As only military means can stop a military aggression, it makes every sense for European leaders to support Ukraine militarily. If anythin…

Which war? Yes, between Russia and Ukraine, Russia is the aggressor, and bigger. Between NATO and Russia, NATO is the aggressor (from Russian perspective) and bigger. Russia started the war in Ukraine to stop the NATO expansion. It's against the international law, but this intent was made pretty clear also in Georgia. EU and NATO then reacted with more NATO expansion, and supporting Ukraine militarily. They didn't of…

NATO has not expanded into Russia. Russia has expanded into Ukraine.

People join NATO in self-defence against Russia. They wouldn't have to if Russia didn't keep attacking its neighbours.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#104

Post by AnimalMuppet » Fri, Oct 03, 2025, 2:11 PM UTC

MildlySerious wrote: post #10

newsclues wrote: post #4

No one listened, no one prepared. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Munich_speech_of_Vladim... It’s not like there was any warning signs… https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 Bullies exploit weaknesses. Time to grow a pair.

I have always found the summary of Foundations of Geopolitics[1] to be an interesting re-read whenever some larger event involving Russia happened. It feels like the puzzle pieces have been coming together at least since Brexit, if not much longer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics#Con...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics#In_... is frighteningly accurate to current events. I wonder to what degree this is them succeeding?

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#105

Post by simonsarris » Fri, Oct 03, 2025, 2:14 PM UTC

Regarding the "why" of Russian drone/air shenanigans: I don't think Russia wants to get their expensive assets shot down or provoke a NATO-wide war. Many people seem to believe this but it presumes far too much. They don't gain from more fronts. They cannot realistically march into the west, they can't even march into west Ukraine.

Realistically, Russia is doing these antics to force as many European countries as possible to feel that they need their air defense inventory (eg MIM-104 Patriot interceptor stock) for themselves, rather than giving or selling that inventory to Ukraine. That has immediate material benefit for the current Russian war effort with almost zero cost (assuming EU countries don't shoot down anything important).

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#106

Post by js8 » Fri, Oct 03, 2025, 2:16 PM UTC

1718627440 wrote: post #91

js8 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To my knowledge, these things are never put forward as an election topic or referendum. There is no discussion with citizens, it's always a fait accompli, we have to do it for national security sort of thing. The blowback is not discussed. I am from Czechia, and Russians attacked Vrbětice munition factory, because it supplied Ukraine. That's the reason. But in media it's always portrayed without this context. FWIW, I…

I don't thing this decision was done without population support. We also don't supply the Ukraine to win. We just don't want the Ukraine to fall, because we think we are next.

Yes, there is popular support, but the consequences have been barely discussed. We don't openly admit, that by supplying Ukraine, we are entering a war with Russia, based on our own decision (not as a defensive measure). This vigilantism (even if it can be argued is employed to protect international law) goes against the idea that we're a peaceful country.

There is no consensus about Russia attacking Czechia (or any EU country) next. In fact many military experts agree that Russia doesn't even have military personel to occupy whole Ukraine.

It's also unclear why, if Putin's ambition is some kind of Hitlerian/Napoleonic expansion to Europe, he would wait 25 years (into his 70s) to do it. And to the extent he has reasonable goals, we can put something tangible on the negotiation table to see what he really wants, instead of guessing. We (I mean NATO) didn't - this indicates it's us who doesn't want to negotiate; because we don't want to reveal our colonial preference (Ukraine is already being described as a great next investment).

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#107

Post by ajross » Fri, Oct 03, 2025, 2:17 PM UTC

chvid wrote: post #25

Europe should be leading the diplomatic efforts towards Russia, not the US. This sort of rhetorics leads nowhere useful.

There have been literally (not figuratively literally, literally literally) zero diplomatic resolutions of military conflicts or tensions with Russia during the Putin era. None. The closest one you can see, if you squint extremely hard, is the detente of 8 years that that followed the invasion of Crimea. And then we know what happened.

Conflicts in Putin's Russia end militarily, always (usually in victory or stalemate, though he for sure "lost" in Syria), or at best a lie in preparation for the next war. Negotiated peace is not a thing.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#108

Post by NicoJuicy » Fri, Oct 03, 2025, 2:20 PM UTC

js8 wrote: post #21

NicoJuicy wrote: post #14

Armchair analysis: Germany is preparing for war and all of Europe is asking them. Well, this won't end well for Russia. Germany is one of the biggest industrial producers in the world.

Unless we deescalate this won't end well for anyone. Except maybe mil-ind complex shareholders.

Nah.

Russia is boxing way beyond it's weight.

It will collapse like in 1991 if we would even just put some tanks at the border ( eg. At Finland, Poland).

( Russia's banks are pretty vulnerable atm. )

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#109

Post by ajross » Fri, Oct 03, 2025, 2:24 PM UTC

bootsmann wrote: post #63

js8 wrote: post #17

I am not sure what European "leaders" expected. Many of them support Ukraine militarily in the war, so yes, EU is in fact in war with Russia, through Ukraine as a proxy. I oppose the military support to Ukraine. I think it's responsibility of the stronger party, here NATO, to seek deescalation. I also disapprove that the military support for Ukraine was decided undemocratically, without any consideration whether this…

> I think it's responsibility of the stronger party, here NATO, to seek deescalation. NATO isn't fighting in Ukraine, Ukraine is fighting in Ukraine and Russia is the stronger party in that conflict.

> Russia is the stronger party in that conflict

In some sense that remains true, but the war remains a stalemate after three years nonetheless. It's become clear that Russia's per-capita war fighting ability is basically garbage. They aren't a superpower, they're something more like Iran, a regional power that is big enough to be expensive to mess with but not a feasible threat to anyone but weaker neighbors.

Ukraine's infrastructure damage can be backstopped by robust trade with wealthy partners and supporters, while Russia is losing refining capacity and running out of gas. To the extent that the war represents an existential threat to either side, it's Putin that has to be more worried. Ukraine can keep this going for a decade or more, it seems like.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#110

Post by 1718627440 » Fri, Oct 03, 2025, 2:29 PM UTC

js8 wrote: post #106

1718627440 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't thing this decision was done without population support. We also don't supply the Ukraine to win. We just don't want the Ukraine to fall, because we think we are next.

Yes, there is popular support, but the consequences have been barely discussed. We don't openly admit, that by supplying Ukraine, we are entering a war with Russia, based on our own decision (not as a defensive measure). This vigilantism (even if it can be argued is employed to protect international law) goes against the idea that we're a peaceful country. There is no consensus about Russia attacking Czechia (or any…

We had have Russian cyber attacks and terrorist attacks for decades. I don't think we get to decide to not be in war with Russia. Being an weapon source is also different form being in open war.

> In fact many military experts agree that Russia doesn't even have military personel to occupy whole Ukraine.

Doesn't really matter. Nazi Germany also didn't had the military personnel to occupy Central Europe for a prolonged time, this didn't stop them from trying.

> if Putin's ambition is some kind of Hitlerian/Napoleonic expansion to Europe, he would wait 25 years (into his 70s) to do it

Internal politics (NS Germany started the expansion when they got bankrupt), being busy in other parts of the world (Middle east), there is not a lack of incentive.

> because we don't want to reveal our colonial preference

We don't prevent countries from joining if there population supports it. This is different from taking colonies even if Russia claims to not understand this distinction.