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Ships are sailing with fake insurance from the Norwegian Ro Marine

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Re: Ships are sailing with fake insurance from the Norwegian Ro Marine

#101

Post by petre »

xienze wrote: post #82
nradov wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone is aware that Russian crude oil will still enter the market through various channels regardless of sanctions. The point of sanctions is just to slightly reduce Russian government revenue. In combination with other measures this provides some leverage in negotiations over a peace settlement.

> The point of sanctions is just to slightly reduce Russian government revenue. In combination with other measures this provides some leverage in negotiations over a peace settlement. How's that working out? Apparently someone miscalculated.

The idea is to incessantly put pressure on their economy until it breaks or adapts. At which point you put more pressure until they become the DPRK or Iran.

Re: Ships are sailing with fake insurance from the Norwegian Ro Marine

#102

Post by valianteffort »

mandevil wrote: post #66
dmix wrote: post #32

I used to believe strongly in financial sanctions over war but I'm becoming more skeptical. Markets and industry are a very hard thing to constrain at a global scale. To do it effectively you basically encourage a giant financial surveillance state and need put huge pressure on partner countries - who often don't even implement it meaningfully. You make business harder for everyone and create lucrative black market o…

25 years ago, IR scholar Dan Drezner wrote the book _The Sanctions Paradox_ which tried to explain, in an IR theory sort of way, why sanctions are used so often and achieve so little- they don't overthrow governments, they rarely even manage to make governments stop doing the things we don't like. He recently revisited that in FP magazine ( https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/10/sanctions-paradox-russi... ) arguing for…

[flagged]

Re: Ships are sailing with fake insurance from the Norwegian Ro Marine

#103

Post by magicalhippo »

mindslight wrote: post #57
beauzero wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only other options are psychological or kinetic.

Why not tariffs? Basically the continuous version of discrete sanctions, that wouldn't encourage as much routing around. Tax Russian oil/gas at the max point in the Laffer (-esque) curve, with all the revenue flowing as direct aid to Ukraine. (I know 'tariff' has become a dirty word these days to due the obvious abuse, but I swear I'm making this comment in good faith)

Because suddenly the oil isn't Russian anymore but Indian or something like that. Here's[1] an article going into how after the 2014 sanctions suddenly a lot of tropical fruits started growing in Belarussia, or how the landlocked country suddenly started exporting tons of Belarusian shrimp.

[1]: https://east-center.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Belarus-E...

Re: Ships are sailing with fake insurance from the Norwegian Ro Marine

#105

Post by hkpack »

dmix wrote: post #32

I used to believe strongly in financial sanctions over war but I'm becoming more skeptical. Markets and industry are a very hard thing to constrain at a global scale. To do it effectively you basically encourage a giant financial surveillance state and need put huge pressure on partner countries - who often don't even implement it meaningfully. You make business harder for everyone and create lucrative black market o…

The reason for that is simple - Russia started its invasion _after_ making Europe dependent on its gas. In Ukraine a lot of people predicted that the war is inevitable after the latest north stream is finished.

The reduction of purchase of gas from Russia did significantly impacted energy prices across EU to the point of populist far-right pro-russia governments rising in popularity (even though that is not the only reason).

So Russia and China has a long term strategy of subverting the west and we are just reacting when there are no good options available.

But, sanctions do work. The problem is that the economic power of the west is comparable these days to "global north".

Re: Ships are sailing with fake insurance from the Norwegian Ro Marine

#106

Post by lenkite »

onpointed wrote: post #59
dmix wrote: post #32

I used to believe strongly in financial sanctions over war but I'm becoming more skeptical. Markets and industry are a very hard thing to constrain at a global scale. To do it effectively you basically encourage a giant financial surveillance state and need put huge pressure on partner countries - who often don't even implement it meaningfully. You make business harder for everyone and create lucrative black market o…

Or encourage buying from alternative hydrocarbon suppliers, like Canada, Australia and the U.S.

De-sanction Iran and Venezuela too, before sanctioning Russian oil.

Re: Ships are sailing with fake insurance from the Norwegian Ro Marine

#107

Post by Mountain_Skies »

hkpack wrote: post #105
dmix wrote: post #32

I used to believe strongly in financial sanctions over war but I'm becoming more skeptical. Markets and industry are a very hard thing to constrain at a global scale. To do it effectively you basically encourage a giant financial surveillance state and need put huge pressure on partner countries - who often don't even implement it meaningfully. You make business harder for everyone and create lucrative black market o…

The reason for that is simple - Russia started its invasion _after_ making Europe dependent on its gas. In Ukraine a lot of people predicted that the war is inevitable after the latest north stream is finished. The reduction of purchase of gas from Russia did significantly impacted energy prices across EU to the point of populist far-right pro-russia governments rising in popularity (even though that is not the only…

Russia did not make Europe dependent on them for gas. Europe freely made that choice, even going so far as to do away with existing alternatives like nuclear in Germany. Trump even warned them. They had a wonderful time laughing at him while proclaiming the ignorant orange buffoon didn't understand Europe. Then Russia invaded Ukraine. Everyone then pretended Europe didn't make itself vulnerable while also ridiculing anyone who dared sound an alarm about the potential danger.

Europe wasn't forced. Europe chose and chose freely. Europe chose poorly.

Re: Ships are sailing with fake insurance from the Norwegian Ro Marine

#108

Post by actionfromafar »

wilkommen wrote: post #93
notmyjob wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same Dan Dexter that pushed for the Iraq war? Should we treat his opinions as such?

I was thinking the same thing. The entire war in Iraq seems to contradict any putatively held ideals around the idea of not redrawing borders.

While an incompetent failure and eventually downright vile, it was hardly an annexation.

Re: Ships are sailing with fake insurance from the Norwegian Ro Marine

#110

Post by actionfromafar »

valianteffort wrote: post #102
mandevil wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

25 years ago, IR scholar Dan Drezner wrote the book _The Sanctions Paradox_ which tried to explain, in an IR theory sort of way, why sanctions are used so often and achieve so little- they don't overthrow governments, they rarely even manage to make governments stop doing the things we don't like. He recently revisited that in FP magazine ( https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/10/sanctions-paradox-russi... ) arguing for…

[flagged]

That’s neither here nor there, is it?
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