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Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

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Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#101
post #85

I’d like to lay out an argument about why tariffs are good. The only businesses that are derailing with tariffs issues are those that import goods to sell. The argument against tariffs is that they make goods more expensive. Of course, this argument is true. But that’s not the end of the story. Because prices are higher for imported goods, demand for domestically produced goods increases. This increase in demand lead…

Mercantilism is evil.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#102
post #85

I’d like to lay out an argument about why tariffs are good. The only businesses that are derailing with tariffs issues are those that import goods to sell. The argument against tariffs is that they make goods more expensive. Of course, this argument is true. But that’s not the end of the story. Because prices are higher for imported goods, demand for domestically produced goods increases. This increase in demand lead…

Incentives work better than tariffs. Tariffs are less effective due to their uncertainty (why would I build a factory if the next admin removes the tariffs?)

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#103

Now that I think about it, creating confusion and uncertainty is actually a pretty effective move if you want to play protectionism. Any "known" tariff would just be paid as far as still profitable.

Don’t really buy this logic. If you want companies to invest in your country, the tariff has to make doing so make financial sense, and for the long term. A lot of these tariffs are going on things that would require a whole factory to be built in the USA which doesn’t currently exist at all, and has no supporting infrastructure or workforce. Companies can’t just decide right now, “oh shit there’s a tariff. Better bu…

Right, and if you're a non-American producer do you want to make massive forced investments to sell into the US market, or put less money into developing your presence in other markets that are not as hostile/unpredictable.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#104

In NYC, for the first 6 months of 2025, 994 new private sector jobs were created [1]. During the same period last year, there were 66,000 new jobs created. Higher cost of doing business from tariffs has frozen hiring. With a frozen job market, there’s less revenue coming in. NYC is a leading indicator for the rest of the country. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/nyregion/nyc-jobs.html

Even assuming that there were no other federal, state or local YoY differences [1] that could explain this change (and that the numbers are right as presented in the first place), New York City private sector employment is nothing like most other parts of the US: it's the largest city in the US by a large margin, it has a concentration of employment in a few major industries (finance, fashion, publishing, software) that aren't represented elsewhere, and...it hasn't been a manufacturing center since the victorian era.

You can't wave this away with "NYC is a leading indicator for the US economy". To the extent that it's true at all, you could say it about any large city in the US.

[1] Like, say: interest rates, the business cycle, AI, the slowdown in software hiring, or the minimum wage increase that NYC implemented on January 1, 2025.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#105

[flagged]

I just realised for the first time in my life I’ve decided to delete my comment/reply because I’m concerned with how it’ll be used.

I will say this; different countries wield different powers at their disposal.

It’s unfair how China conducts business, but other countries can be equally exploitative.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#106
post #31

[flagged]

No, why should they, there are many concurents out there. But! Once the prices go up because of some taxes, they never go as low as they were before. Thats no theory, thats life. Say good bye, to the prices you see now, you will never see them again ;-)

There are many concurrents? How do you figure? There has never been as little choice and alternatives, let alone actual competition than today.

A few corporations control most of the food you eat, even less control the food you eat in restaurants. Very few media companies control the "content" you can consume and you cannot even own it, let alone sell or even trade it, and it seems everyone just pays more whether they keep raising their prices.

You own very little, are you getting happier?

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#107
post #85

I’d like to lay out an argument about why tariffs are good. The only businesses that are derailing with tariffs issues are those that import goods to sell. The argument against tariffs is that they make goods more expensive. Of course, this argument is true. But that’s not the end of the story. Because prices are higher for imported goods, demand for domestically produced goods increases. This increase in demand lead…

Perhaps if tariffs were implemented in a somewhat sane way, your argument might have more merit. Today, we are also tariffing the raw materials needed for domestic production, including many that have zero or insufficient local production. so it actually makes it harder and more expensive to meet demand domestically.

Plus, with the fickle and chaotic application of trumps tariffs, you’d be insane to invest in domestic production.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#108

In NYC, for the first 6 months of 2025, 994 new private sector jobs were created [1]. During the same period last year, there were 66,000 new jobs created. Higher cost of doing business from tariffs has frozen hiring. With a frozen job market, there’s less revenue coming in. NYC is a leading indicator for the rest of the country. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/nyregion/nyc-jobs.html

I’m curious whether it’s more the tariffs, or the uncertainty. No one knows what will happen on a day-to-day basis: the chaotic (and illegal) decision-making leaves everyone wondering what’s next.

The hiring slowdown predates tariffs. For various reasons CEOs either believe they can do more with less people, or that they can hire cheaper people in other geographies, or both. Businesses (tech or financials) don't seem to be telegraphing uncertainty, S&P 500 revenue is at all times high and trending up, earnings/profit all time highs and trending up, valuations all times high and trending up.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#109
post #68
post #12

Funny how there is a post-it with a password glued to the screen of the computer in the lede image, now in plain sight for thousands of readers.

I think this is Ccjaas2004. I'm not 100% sure on the letters, but the year is easy to see. Hopefully, they've changed their password sometime in the past 21 years.

That's CCJ who married AAS in 2004. The password is still the same. But what's the username and what's the service?

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#110
post #95
post #85

I’d like to lay out an argument about why tariffs are good. The only businesses that are derailing with tariffs issues are those that import goods to sell. The argument against tariffs is that they make goods more expensive. Of course, this argument is true. But that’s not the end of the story. Because prices are higher for imported goods, demand for domestically produced goods increases. This increase in demand lead…

This would make sense if there were a single labor market. There isn’t, so this simply increases prices (even for domestic goods, as raw materials are frequently imported). There is no meaningful path to restoring much of the US’s lost manufacturing capacity. The rent is too damn high, and the cost of goods is rising quickly as well. Labor is expensive and becoming moreso daily. Manufacturing in the US can never comp…

Low labor costs are not why goods are produced in China. That viewpoint is outdated. Goods are produced in China because they have the most capacity and expertise. Don’t believe me. Believe Tim Cook: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2wacXUrONUY
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