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AI is different

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Re: AI is different

#101

Post by callc »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #85
_jab wrote: post #59

I'm skeptical of arguments like this. If we look at most impactful technologies since the year 2000, AI is not even in my top 3. Social networking, mobile computing, and cloud computing have all done more to alter society and daily life than has AI. And yes, I recognize that AI has already created profound change, in that every software engineer now depends heavily on copilots, in that education faces a major integri…

AI has already rendered academic take-home assignments moot. No other tech has had an impact like that, even the internet.

A pessimistic/realistic view of post high school education - credentials are proof of able to do a certain amount of hard work, used as an easy filter for companies while hiring.

I expect universities to adapt quickly, lest lose their whole business as degrees will not carry the same meaning to employers.

Re: AI is different

#102

Post by tokioyoyo »

One thing that doesn’t seem to be discussed with the whole “tech revolution just creates more jobs” angle is that, in the near future, there are no real incentives for that. If we’re going down the route of declining birth rates, it’s implied we’ll also need less jobs.

From one perspective, it’s good that we’re trying to over-automate now, so we can sustain ourselves in old age. But decreasing population also implies that we don’t need to create more jobs. I’m most likely wrong, but it just feels off this time around.

Re: AI is different

#103

Post by pton_xd »

AI is only different if it reaches a hard takeoff state and becomes self-aware, self-motivated, and self-improving. Until then it's an amazing productivity tool, but only that. And even then we're still decades away from the impact being fully realized in society. Same as the internet.

Re: AI is different

#104

Post by neom »

ziofill wrote: post #92
DiscourseFan wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The major shift for me is now its normal to take Waymos. Yeah, there aren't as fast as Uber if you have to get across town, but for trips less than 10 miles they're my go to now.

I’m curious, are they now fully autonomous? I remember some time ago they had a remote operator.

Good account to follow to track their progress, sufficed to say they're nearing/at the end of the beginning: https://x.com/reed // https://x.com/daylenyang/status/1953853807227523178

Re: AI is different

#105

Post by visarga »

btilly wrote: post #7

In every technology wave so far, we've disrupted many existing jobs. However we've also opened up new kinds of jobs. And, because it is easier to retrain humans than build machines for those jobs, we wound up with more and better jobs. This is the first technology wave that doesn't just displace humans, but which can be trained to the new job opportunities more easily than humans can. Right now it can't replace human…

> displace humans ...

AI can displace human work but not human accountability. It has no skin and faces no consequences.

> can be trained to the new job opportunities more easily ...

Are we talking about AI that always needs trainers to fix their prompts and training sets? How are we going to train AI when we lose those skills and get rid of humans?

> what do displaced humans transition to?

Humans with all powerful AI in their pockets... what could they do if they lose their jobs?

Re: AI is different

#106

Post by lucisferre »

pton_xd wrote: post #103

AI is only different if it reaches a hard takeoff state and becomes self-aware, self-motivated, and self-improving. Until then it's an amazing productivity tool, but only that. And even then we're still decades away from the impact being fully realized in society. Same as the internet.

Realistically most people became aware of the internet in the late 90s. Its impact was significantly realized not much more than a decade later.

Re: AI is different

#107

Post by visarga »

schneems wrote: post #69
chrisco255 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but which can be trained to the new job opportunities more easily than humans can What makes you think that? Self driving cars have had untold billions of dollars in reaearch and decades in applied testing, iteration, active monitoring, etc and it still has a very long tail of unaddressed issues. They've been known to ignore police traffic redirections, they've run right through construction barriers, and recently…

A few months ago I saw one driverless car maybe every three days. Now I see roughly 3-5 every day. I get that it’s taken a long time and a lot of hype that hasn’t panned out. But once the tech works and it’s just about juicing the scale then things shift rapidly. Even if you think “oh that’s the next generation’s problem” if there is a chance you’re wrong, or if you want to be kind to the next generation: now is the…

> I think the most sensible answer would be something like UBI.

Having had the experience of living under communist regime prior to 1989 I have zero trust in the state providing support, while I am totally dependent and have no recourse. Instead I would rather rely on my own two hands like my grandparents did.

I see a world where we can build anything we want with our own hands and AI automation. Jobs might become optional.

Re: AI is different

#108

Post by fallous »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #82
chrisco255 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but which can be trained to the new job opportunities more easily than humans can What makes you think that? Self driving cars have had untold billions of dollars in reaearch and decades in applied testing, iteration, active monitoring, etc and it still has a very long tail of unaddressed issues. They've been known to ignore police traffic redirections, they've run right through construction barriers, and recently…

Everything anyone could say about bad AI driving could be said about bad human drivers. Nevertheless, Waymo has not had a single fatal accident despite many millions of passenger miles and is safer than human drivers.

Everything? How about legal liability for the car killing someone? Are all the self-driving vendors stepping up and accepting full legal liability for the outcomes of their non-deterministic software?

Re: AI is different

#110

Post by roenxi »

lucisferre wrote: post #106
pton_xd wrote: post #103

AI is only different if it reaches a hard takeoff state and becomes self-aware, self-motivated, and self-improving. Until then it's an amazing productivity tool, but only that. And even then we're still decades away from the impact being fully realized in society. Same as the internet.

Realistically most people became aware of the internet in the late 90s. Its impact was significantly realized not much more than a decade later.

In fact the current trends suggest its impact hasn't fully played out yet. We're only just seeing the internet-native generation start to move into politics where communication and organisation has the biggest impact on society. It seems the power of traditional propaganda centres in the corporate media has been, if not broken, badly degraded by the internet too.
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