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I'm worried it might get bad

danielmiessler.com

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Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#101

Post by johnecheck »

amilios wrote: post #72
logicchains wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a fan of UBI, but long term inflation is primarily determined by money creation rates. If UBI was funded by taxes, not printing, then we wouldn't expect any significant effect on long term inflation rates, although there might be some disruption in the short term.

I mean is it determined by money creation, or just influenced by/one of the factors? If business perceive people generally having more spending money, won't they raise prices accordingly?

Shouldn't they lose to a competitor who's happy to keep the lower margin and dominate the market?

If not, I'd call that a failure of anti-trust law, not UBI.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#102

Post by xlbuttplug2 »

mholt wrote: post #23

Don't worry -- soon after that, there will be high demand for human coders as companies scramble to hire to rewrite all the buggy and vuln-ridden AI-hallucinated software. We're on the verge of two revolutions in tech, not one.

The rate at which AI is capable of producing code is intractable for humans to deal with. Right now the bottleneck is human reviewers. If AI ever becomes effective at generating provably correct code, it's joever.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#103

Post by WaltPurvis »

crop_rotation wrote: post #10
generalpf wrote: post #2

Referencing Marc Benioff making bold claims about AI isn't much evidence, he's pulling these numbers out of thin air. Despite claiming they won't hire software engineers in 2025, there are plenty of positions open at Salesforce for software engineers.

If it was just Marc Benioff preaching then it would indeed not deserve much attention. However, most big companies at this point have internal roadmap to reduce workforce by large amounts.

I'm not saying I necessarily doubt this, but how do you know what the internal roadmaps of "most" big companies are?

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#104

Post by dalyons »

dingnuts wrote: post #62
otikik wrote: post #46

> We start to see unrest and/or riots against "the rich" because there are no jobs, and people are being evicted I am surprised this has not already happened. The combination of rampant inequality and lax gun laws (in some states) is very explosive.

the gun laws are stricter in the States with more inequality

A trivial google shows thats wrong, it doesn’t look to be a strong correlation https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_terr...

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#105

Post by amilios »

johnecheck wrote: post #101
amilios wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean is it determined by money creation, or just influenced by/one of the factors? If business perceive people generally having more spending money, won't they raise prices accordingly?

Shouldn't they lose to a competitor who's happy to keep the lower margin and dominate the market? If not, I'd call that a failure of anti-trust law, not UBI.

What if everyone raises prices simultaneously proportional to the UBI?

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#106

Post by sundaeofshock »

AstroBen wrote: post #69
mholt wrote: post #23

Don't worry -- soon after that, there will be high demand for human coders as companies scramble to hire to rewrite all the buggy and vuln-ridden AI-hallucinated software. We're on the verge of two revolutions in tech, not one.

I shared your view a year ago. Hell half my posts here on HN are arguing against the annoying hype. Today I make heavy use of AI and my code quality has gone up, not down. It's better tested, better factored, with better error handling covering more edge cases AI code is only buggy if no-one is guiding or reviewing it I'm not sure how long we'll need someone in the middle to actually review the code

That works because you are a senior developer who knows how to properly use the AI tools. What 10 years from now? What happens when senior devs are retiring and we do t have replacements since we replaced junior devs with AI?

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#107

Post by lif »

otikik wrote: post #46

> We start to see unrest and/or riots against "the rich" because there are no jobs, and people are being evicted I am surprised this has not already happened. The combination of rampant inequality and lax gun laws (in some states) is very explosive.

good old 'panem et circensis' at work:

we're never had more effective 'circensis' (Tiktok, video-games, etc.)

the 'panem' part? yeah, that might be a problem, given (further) inflation

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#108

Post by enraged_camel »

sys32768 wrote: post #54

The trades sure aren't hurting. Where I live, a county of about 120k in the Rockies, appliance repair shops are booking six weeks out, and roofers can book out as long as six months.

This is going to change fast once the recession hits. Because what happens during recessions is that households abandon all but the most critical home repair and home improvement projects, and trade businesses shutter in large numbers.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#109

Post by AnimalMuppet »

amilios wrote: post #72
logicchains wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a fan of UBI, but long term inflation is primarily determined by money creation rates. If UBI was funded by taxes, not printing, then we wouldn't expect any significant effect on long term inflation rates, although there might be some disruption in the short term.

I mean is it determined by money creation, or just influenced by/one of the factors? If business perceive people generally having more spending money, won't they raise prices accordingly?

It's (mostly) determined by the delta between money creation and creation of "stuff" (by which I mean services as well as goods). If there's more stuff, then creating the same amount more money isn't inflationary.

I said "mostly" because there can be things like supply shocks... but I guess that means less stuff, so maybe even that isn't an exception.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#110

Post by fusslo »

ponector wrote: post #42
mholt wrote: post #23

Don't worry -- soon after that, there will be high demand for human coders as companies scramble to hire to rewrite all the buggy and vuln-ridden AI-hallucinated software. We're on the verge of two revolutions in tech, not one.

There are many examples of buggy and vuln-ridden non-AI-hallucinated software. Never been a rush to fix them.

I've been thinking about this lately.

While we engineers understand how to judge and evaluate AI solutions, I am not sure Business Owners (BO) care.

BO's are ok with a certain percentage of bugs/rework/inefficiency/instability. And the tradeoff of eliminating (or marginalizing) Engineering may be worth the increased percentage of unfavorable outcomes.

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