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Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

theguardian.com

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Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#101

Post by BenjiWiebe »

BriggyDwiggs42 wrote: post #88
ars wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is such a bad article. They shut down this specific program in 2015, and switched to JPSS instead. There is no war on anyone, and this has nothing to do with Trump, DOGS, or Climate change. Rather there were too many satellite failures, leaving just a single operating one in orbit.

There was no reason not to continue providing the data from the satellite. It’s still operational.

I agree with both of you. Unnecessary fear mongering, but also a shortsighted pointless (malicious?) move.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#102

Post by BenjiWiebe »

timeon wrote: post #25
schiffern wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, when the media lies it's bad . People used to understand that fact. Now media gets a free pass on certain lies because Bad Man Bad, and (evidently) people aren't even allowed to point out the lie. Hint: when the media can make up whatever they want about someone, they can quickly twist perception to make anyone into the Bad Man.

[flagged]

Can't I disagree with someone, but also not support lies about them, even if their supporters are fine with lying? My standard is no lies at all, even for a "good cause".

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#103

Post by mindslight »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #60
mindslight wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> "Entertaining" in that red states will get their requests approved Between the cost of the damage (and us blowing the card preëmptively on this big, beautiful bill), reduction in state capacity to respond to disasters as a result of DOGE and an increasingly-fracturing Congressional GOP I'm not sure they will.

A reduction of state capacity doesn't mean an elimination though - eg the military isn't going anywhere, and can always be sent in to "keep order" and distribute supplies (regardless of how long the highest-briber actually takes to deliver the supplies). More money can always be printed, regardless of the inflationary effects later (like the big ugly spending bill, it's only something to complain about when the democrats might do it). If Congress really does manage to stop rubber stamping, then money can be diverted from elsewhere or maybe we'll just the hear "full faith and credit" argument trotted out not just about the debt ceiling, but the financial commitments of the executive.

(Also I don't know why my original comment was flagged. I guess the autocracy enthusiasts not appreciating me openly calling it autocracy rather than sparkling unitary executive theory or whatever? Or maybe they're in denial that we now have a concentration camp?)

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#104

Post by bena »

counters wrote: post #54
deadbabe wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hurricane risk has been grossly exaggerated for years. Every year people say it will be the end of Florida as we know it. But those promised hurricanes never come. The worst is some flooding and damage at coastal areas, but it’s always anti-climactic. The real reason insurance is high is because of fraudulent claim risk. Hurricanes themselves are more or less a solved problem in Florida. That data is useless.

> Hurricane risk has been grossly exaggerated for years Year-over-year, economic impacts and disruptions due to tropical cyclones are dramatically rising. Most of this is an exposure issue. But long-tail events - like Andrew's utter devastation of Homestead in 1992 or Katrina's unique confluence of storm surge in urban/suburban parishes in LA - can and do happen. One day, there will be another Galveston or Homestead.

That day being essentially yesterday.

Since Katrina, the next 10 costliest hurricanes are all after.

We don't dwell on the Ikes, Idas, and Helenes because they often happen to smaller communities and they've become common enough that we've gotten a little fatigued.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#106

Post by XorNot »

mschuster91 wrote: post #41
toomuchtodo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The intent is to disable the capability to ignore the data. If you allow access to someone else, you're not preventing the data capture and dissemination. If the data shows hurricanes are intensifying in strength due to climate change, and you no longer capture the data, you can say with a straight face "No it isn't and you can't prove it." How large systems with exposure to these places (insurance, capital markets)…

> What do you do when you don't have the data to accurately price risk? Insurance companies will just be sending up their own satellites, and that is the true goal. Force people to pay money to private entities for a service that used to be provided by the government for free. Functionally, in such a system there is no difference between that and regular taxes, just in a private system there's opportunities for those…

Except they won't. There's no reason to expensively launch your own forecasting system when you can instead just wait for someone else to do it and then use their insurance rates to do your own forecasting.

Which is why the government running satellites it would need to run anyway is much more efficient.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#107

Post by ryandrake »

pstuart wrote: post #95
KerrAvon wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SCOTUS is essentially blindly local to Trump — pay attention to the latest Constitution-shredding decisions; they sure wouldn’t be doing those under a Dem president, and they’re twisting themselves in knots trying to make the illogical logical — it just manifests differently at their level.

This is clear to all except partisans who put loyalty to their party over their country. It's not like we're asking for SCOTUS to accept constitutional slights from the left side of the aisle, its about consistency of reasoning regardless of which party is involved. As you've noted, the conservatives of SCOTUS are working backwards from their desired goals rather than pursuing justice for all.

The ultimate test will be if any future Democrat president (assuming we have fair elections after 2025) is able to use the same powers, justified by the same rulings. I think most people believe that SCOTUS will do a 180 turn and come to entirely opposite legal/Constitutional conclusions if a Dem president tries to argue the same things in front of them.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#108

Post by TimorousBestie »

counters wrote: post #99
mschuster91 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But Hanlon's razor ought to apply until shown otherwise I'm no longer willing to grant this administration this privilege. The last few months were an utter clownshow of corruption.

It just isn't helpful to assume malice. Even for the most ardent, ideological Heartland Institute or Heritage Foundation conservative, there is still a path forward in discussing unintended consequences. Just look at the post-Liberation Day rollback of blanket tariffs. At some point, the consequences of actions are felt. Systems respond even when the firmest hand tries to steady them. At some point you take your hand…

> At some point, the consequences of actions are felt.

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent,” is a truism from before the Trump era, but it still rings true.

That the administration might eventually realize that one of their policies is hurting small business owners, well, that’s cold comfort to someone whose business is struggling or failing now due to unpredictable tariff rates.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#109

Post by slg »

MikeTheGreat wrote: post #94
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #2

“Researchers say the satellites themselves are operating normally and do not appear to have suffered any errors that would physically prevent the data from continuing to be collected and distributed, so the abrupt data halt might have been an intentional decision.” Wait, the U.S. aren’t even going to try selling the satellites? We’re just scrapping them?

It feels like the title here isn't accurate - we haven't lost the satellite at all. It wasn't destroyed, it wasn't de-orbited (on purpose or accidentally), it wasn't hacked or hijacked. Can we ask dang to change the title to something like "Blocking of key US satellite data could...."?

Are you maybe skipping over the word "data" in the headline? The headline doesn't imply the satellite itself is lost, just the data coming from the satellite.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#110

Post by 63 »

oksowhat wrote: post #36
Animats wrote: post #5

It's part of the Administration's war on ... Florida?

I was about to say this -- the impact is to deep red states -- Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama. They all voted for this with extreme skew towards the current policies. What is the point of trying to save this satellite data if the very people most affected dont care for it?

I strongly suspect that said states will still find a way to get federal funds for relief, whether from the president directly (since Trump's stated plan is to replace FEMA with his own discretion) or, in an emergency, through a very quick act from congress. Of course, it's much cheaper to mitigate hurricane damage _before_ it's done so gutting all the planning related services as the Trump administration seems wont to do will only either hurt a lot of people in red states or, more likely, cost the country more than if they'd left NOAA and FEMA alone.
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