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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

theatlantic.com

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Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#101

Post by wvenable »

anyfoo wrote: post #95
wvenable wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My children are 12 years apart in age and being a parent in my 20s was a much better experience. I had less money, but I had more time. I wiser now, but I had more energy. I could relate to being a kid more. I'm not suggesting it's better. But people seem to automatically assume that being older when having kids as better. I know some much older parents who were not good parents. I know I would not make a good parent…

I did not have more time in my 20s. In my 20s and early 30s, I was busy “getting out there”. Building my life, my interests, my foundation (not just my career). Now I have a happy life to stand on, and can devote more time, attention, and energy to my family. I don’t deny that your way can work out as well. But OPs advice was “get children before you are 30, don’t wait until after”. Whereas my honest advice, based on…

I was “getting out there” too! So many major life milestones. But actually it has never stopped. Most of my major career changes happened after the second child. I have entirely new interests now.

I feel like I do have the unique perspective having actually done both. I don't need to assume what kind of parent I was in my 20s because I was that parent. And I'm a different parent now. But being a younger parent was a great experience despite any other consequences.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#102

Post by malcolmgreaves »

Izikiel43 wrote: post #87
anyfoo wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We did wait for the “perfect” time, and are very happy we did. I got my son at almost 40, and I’m positive I’m a much better parent because of that. Sure, kids cost energy, but at 40 and 50 you’re not geriatric. I often get the opportunity to compare our parenting style to younger parents, and it’s clear that they often have some emotional growing up to do themselves. They complain about normal parenting things that…

> but at 40 and 50 you’re not geriatric. biologically, and for pregnancy, yes you are.

It's actually the age of the egg that matters most, not the age of the mother during pregnancy.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#103

Post by [deleted] »

bluGill wrote: post #55
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

[deleted]

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#104

Post by analog31 »

FuriouslyAdrift wrote: post #80
NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There should be statutory limitations for prosecutors concerning the use of plea deals. No more than 1% of cases in any calendar year should be permitted to even offer plea deals, so that they use that tool sparingly and only when appropriate. If they waste it out of laziness or apathy, then the subsequent cases that year would have to be brought to trial. This would cut down on alot of the bullshit (and not just for…

Most convictions are due to plea deals. If you limit that tool, people would simply have charges dropped due to Sixth Amendment violations and people languishing in prison awaiting trials. It would be gridlock. "Plea bargaining accounts for almost 98 percent of federal convictions and 95 percent of state convictions in the United States." https://legalknowledgebase.com/what-percentage-of-criminal-c...

I think a public trial serves as a form of oversight. Widespread plea bargaining means we'll never know how many of these people even committed crimes, much less how the justice system operates.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#105

Post by PartiallyTyped »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

Can we blame lead for the US’ electoral landscape too?

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#106

Post by keybored »

analognoise wrote: post #74
msgodel wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Sorry, is this sarcasm? That's a frequent racist dog-whistle to justify systemically unjust (read: racist) policing; I'm surprised to see it on HN.

Everything bad is due to lack of intelligence and everything good is caused by intelligence. Average day on the HN.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#107

Post by JumpCrisscross »

PartiallyTyped wrote: post #105
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

Can we blame lead for the US’ electoral landscape too?

> Can we blame lead for the US’ electoral landscape too?

More of a pet theory, but voters born between 1950 and 1980, boomers and Gen X, have had a well-documented set of policy preferences.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#108

Post by pjdesno »

standardUser wrote: post #61
rwmj wrote: post #19

The question not even asked by the article is ... why?

From what I've read, mostly sentencing reform and less aggressive drug prosecution/more drug diversion. That and the general trend for crime to recede in wealthy, stable societies.

It's not just law enforcement and sentencing - there are verifiable numbers for the results of certain crimes - homicides and auto theft come to mind - and most have declined precipitously.

E.g. Boston had 1,575 reports of auto theft in 2012, compared with 28,000 in 1975; Massachusetts had 242 murders in 1975, and 121 in 2012. (a 56% drop in homicide rate, as population went up 14%)

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#109

Post by ivape »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #107
PartiallyTyped wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can we blame lead for the US’ electoral landscape too?

> Can we blame lead for the US’ electoral landscape too? More of a pet theory, but voters born between 1950 and 1980, boomers and Gen X, have had a well-documented set of policy preferences.

What if I told you voters born between nnnn-yyyy had a set of policy preferences?

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#110

Post by Karrot_Kream »

bluGill wrote: post #55
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

Obviously I think the answer to this question depends so much on individual circumstances that all any of us can do is offer anecdotes. I think that while energy levels do decline as you get older, the degree of the decline depends largely on how much you stay in shape. My partner and I are very active and find ourselves only marginally less physically energetic in our 30s as our 20s. I've seen friends of ours with more sedentary lifestyles having a much sharper decline. If you're inclined to stay in shape then I don't think age makes as big of a difference (within reason.) But YMMV.
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