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Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#101

Post by detourdog »

turnsout wrote: post #57
sjsdaiuasgdia wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't understand how you could look at Elon's actions and think he has any interest in making as much money as he can. Oh totally. That's why when Tesla shareholders sued Tesla over Elon's massive compensation package, Elon said, "I reject the compensation package entirely. Pay me nothing! Actually, I'll pay you to let me work here!"

That whole storyline is about him forcing the board to prove their loyalty—it has nothing to do with the money. He wants fealty.

Letting him keep his job demonstrates fealty.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#102

Post by honeybadger1 »

guywithahat wrote: post #94
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

There is a weird disconnect between Reddit and the rest of the world, and it's becoming increasingly obvious when I encounter a Redditor off reddit

No one here is ready to have that conversation.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#103

Post by bryanlarsen »

freshmatrix wrote: post #80
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

good luck... - https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1934623551694508456/photo... - "(Obi) The Road Ahead:Pricing Insights On Waymo, Uber and Lyft" https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25973106-obi-waymo-6... - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-06-16/why-tesla-c... Best-selling BEVs worldwide January-April 2025, according to new data from EV Volumes: 1) Tesla Model Y 2) Tesla Model 3 3) BYD Seagull/Dolphin M…

You're cherry picking by listing by model rather than by brand. This advantages Tesla in two ways.

- Tesla has very few models. The model Y is more than half of Tesla's total sales. The Seagull is less than 10% of BYD's total sales. A better metric is total sales per company by either volume or dollars.

- Tesla already sells pretty much everywhere, so don't have the "easy" option of expanding sales by expanding into other markets. OTOH, the Chinese brands are not yet widely available in several large markets.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#104

Post by jcranmer »

turnsout wrote: post #18
RajT88 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So - the cooked-ness of Tesla may depend on what you think Musk's goal was with Tesla. If you believe he was out to change the world - maybe he'll let Tesla die. It's unlikely they are going to accomplish much else at this point, better, smarter more experienced competitors are sweeping the board. If you believe he's out to make as much money as he can, he'll probably course correct at some point. Lidar it is clear w…

I don't understand how you could look at Elon's actions and think he has any interest in making as much money as he can. He's already made his money. Now he's gone full Howard Hughes. "I would like to die on Mars" is a direct quote.

If he doesn't have any interest in making as much money as he can, why did he put so much effort in defending his exorbitant compensation package in court?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#105

Post by moralestapia »

antisthenes wrote: post #52
moralestapia wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, tell that to Theranos' executives. Oh yeah, you can't, they're in jail.

Theranos never went public, so the quote about markets doesn't apply. I do agree with the general sentiment, however. If FSD kills a person, many executives, including the top dog, need to go to jail.

>[...] the quote about markets doesn't apply

I'm about to blow your mind.

https://www.blackrock.com/se/individual/themes/discovering-p...

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#106

Post by steveBK123 »

cherryteastain wrote: post #38
Analemma_ wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also got the free month of FSD about four months ago and tried it out on my Model 3, and was astonished at how bad it was in the greater Seattle area: I had to manually intervene on about 4 out of every 5 drives. I do not understand how I continue to see so many comments online raving about how great FSD is; I have to conclude these are coming from either desperate stock-boosters or people who drive exclusively on…

It's definitely behind Waymo level, but the selling point of Tesla FSD is apparently that it works with 'normal' cameras as opposed to the super expensive Waymo kit so they can afford to put it in an upper mid range car. I've seen it action only in my friend's Tesla in SF, and he also had to manually intervene, but to be fair Tesla themselves say you must be ready to take the wheel at any time. I think it may reach f…

> I think it may reach fully autonomous level with a few more years in the oven though.

The problem is Tesla pumps have been saying this for 10 years.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#107

Post by blindriver »

danans wrote: post #50
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

> But Elon has killed his brand with his politics, and the robotaxi initiative is a desperate attempt to gain ground. But it's going to kill someone and it will be 100% on him because he's the one pushing this when there's no way it will ever be ready for real world situations the way Waymo is. What if his political allies allow and enable him to push this upon the populace despite it killing people. After all, other…

You mean his political allies that he accused of pedophilia?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#108

Post by nickff »

Spooky23 wrote: post #68
nickff wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems like an awfully low bar to imprisoning people. Shouldn't executives at every company which designs or manufactures vehicles go to jail by your standard? If not, why?

Sure. My Honda Accord’s cruise control is totally the same as the defective on arrival robot taxi.

I have heard of at least one case where someone thought that cruise control could operate as an un-supervised 'autopilot' and nearly died; I believe their (almost new) RV went off some sort of cliff.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#109

Post by nickff »

flkiwi wrote: post #70
nickff wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems like an awfully low bar to imprisoning people. Shouldn't executives at every company which designs or manufactures vehicles go to jail by your standard? If not, why?

Because there's a fundamental difference between "manufactures a car with well-understood features in a mature regulatory space" and "prematurely deploys untested and unprecedented functionality without oversight." If a legacy manufacturer rushed out a product that ignored regulation, for example, they should be similarly subject to prosecution.

There's lots of oversight in the automotive space; everything from the dashboard indicators to the crash standards are tightly regulated. Perhaps the regulators should be 'better', but it seems to me that Tesla is quite compliant (as it does 'recalls' and all the like). Which regulations is Tesla maliciously failing to comply with?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#110

Post by msgodel »

guywithahat wrote: post #94
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

There is a weird disconnect between Reddit and the rest of the world, and it's becoming increasingly obvious when I encounter a Redditor off reddit

I used to be on Reddit a lot when I was a teenager. I remember during a state election I was certain this libertarian representative/delegate would win, he was so popular on Reddit!

I don't think he got even 5% of the vote. The voting on Reddit combined with a number of other features of the site just give you this really twisted idea of the way people around you think. I don't think it's good to even visit it.

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