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The Gentle Singularity

blog.samaltman.com

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101–110 of 557 posts

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#101

Post by paxys »

afavour wrote: post #13

> It’s hard to even imagine today what we will have discovered by 2035; maybe we will go from solving high-energy physics one year to beginning space colonization the next year I heard similar things in my college dorm, amid all the hazy smoke. It’s very difficult to take this stuff seriously. It’s like the initial hype around self driving cars wound up by 1000x. Because we got from 1 to 100 of course we’ll get from…

No we'll totally have flying cars and cure cancer and live life in an AR/VR multiverse and make all knowledge 100% free to everyone worldwide. Meanwhile the only real advancements in tech in the last two decades have been smaller computers (smartphones) and ads.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#102

Post by actuallyalys »

ryandv wrote: post #87

> We are past the event horizon; the takeoff has started. Humanity is close to building digital superintelligence, and at least so far it’s much less weird than it seems like it should be. Not sure if wishful thinking trying to LARP-manifest this future into being, or just more unfalsifiable thinking where we can always be said to be past the event horizon and near to the singularity, given sufficiently underwhelming…

Agreed. I realize it’s a metaphor but saying we’re so close to the singularity that it’s guaranteed to happen (the event horizon being a point of no return) seems like wild hubris.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#103

Post by xwiz »

minimaxir wrote: post #66
jcelerier wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people want good software and good art, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k85mRPqvMbE

There's a difference between a 2000's character brute-forced through millions of advertising dollars to sell ringtones to children, and whatever the hell is happening in the https://www.meta.ai/ Discover feed. One aspect about modern generative AI that has surprised me is that it should have resulted in a new age of creatively surreal shitposts, but instead we have people Ghiblifying themselves and pictures of Trump…

Surreal shitposting you say?

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DE3EhrZyCVd/

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#105

Post by seydor »

ok ok, i m holding my breath!

"Rich" is a relative term, the existence of the rich requires the existence of the poor, and according to the article the rich will get richer much faster than the poor. There's nothing gentle about this singularity

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#106

Post by nyc_data_geek1 »

ryandv wrote: post #87

> We are past the event horizon; the takeoff has started. Humanity is close to building digital superintelligence, and at least so far it’s much less weird than it seems like it should be. Not sure if wishful thinking trying to LARP-manifest this future into being, or just more unfalsifiable thinking where we can always be said to be past the event horizon and near to the singularity, given sufficiently underwhelming…

He is purely a hype man, and many people are too gullible/invested/dumb to see it, call him on it, or care.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#108

Post by blibble »

minimaxir wrote: post #14

> A lot more people will be able to create software, and art. But the world wants a lot more of both, and experts will probably still be much better than novices, as long as they embrace the new tools. This isn't correct: people want good software and good art, and the current trajectory of how LLMs are used on average in the real world unfortunately run counter to that. This post doesn't offer any forecasts on the h…

> As datacenter production gets automated, the cost of intelligence should eventually converge to near the cost of electricity.

what he has left unsaid, is that electricity demand will rise substantially

good luck heating your home when you're competing with "superintelligence" for energy

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#110

Post by AnthonyMouse »

mindwok wrote: post #73
xg15 wrote: post #23

> The rate of new wonders being achieved will be immense. It’s hard to even imagine today what we will have discovered by 2035; maybe we will go from solving high-energy physics one year to beginning space colonization the next year; or from a major materials science breakthrough one year to true high-bandwidth brain-computer interfaces the next year. How about affordable housing?

Affordable housing is already easily possible from a technical perspective, it's a social problem. I have some hope that AI will help with this, by at the very least providing faster ways to make decisions, but that's about it.

It's not so much a social problem as a political problem. Zoning rules are applied at the local level, with the result that having a vote requires already living somewhere and then the rules reflect what people who already own a home there want (higher prices) rather than what people who would like to own a home there want (lower prices).

But technology often can solve political problems by shifting the balance of power. Come up with more ways to make it easier for people to live away from high cost of living areas, for example, so that governments with high housing costs start losing tax base to other jurisdictions.

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