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Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

timharford.com

101–110 of 116 posts

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#101
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why people are entertaining this. The Gross Domestic Product by definition measures every expenditure, income or production of a specific territory. If you exclude government effects in the economy, you get into so many troubles.

Because they want to make the correct argument that there is moderate waste on the budget when measured in the traditional sense of government paying more than a decent negotiator would payand a staggering amount of waste when measured as utility to the people paying the taxes vs alternatives. Saying gdp is wrong is a fail way to do this.

And yet the fiscal multiplier of money spent by the government is >1. Per each dollar spent by the state, there's a economic growth above one (btw, there's a paper that looks at many actions done by the government[0], guess which actions actually drag the multiplier down even in the most favorable estimations).

[0]: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-...

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#102

I've talked to a few economists about this and non agree with Elon on this. The biggest issue one person raised is how do you separate out government spending form GDP? If a US town has a big military base, does that mean the entire towns' GDP is just government spending so ignore it? The government essentially pays for everyone's salary in the town. Where do you draw the line at what is government spending and priva…

The biggest issue one person raised is how do you separate out government spending form GDP? (Note that I agree with your larger point) One discussion of this point can be found in an Indicator podcast[0] from a couple of months ago. [0] https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1237470062

And that issue is non-starter, for the same reasons given in the podcast you even linked:

> GDP is just GDP. It's just like, how big is the economy? It's not that hard. And you can't take the government part out of it because the government is a significant part of that.

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#103
post #86
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of interest, are you familiar with Tim Harford?

No (likely because American). It's entirely possible my interpretation of his opinion of GDP is totally off, but that's what I gleaned from this single article. If I'm wrong, it's at least a bit his fault. Do you have an opinion you'd like to share?

Sorry, missed your reply. He's quite a well respected economist, and also presenter of the Pushkin podcast Cautionary Tales along with a lot of economics adjacent stuff for BBC radio and TV. Didn't mean for my question to sound snarky but on reflection I think it does, so sorry about that.

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#104
post #52

Elon is definitely wrong. The author seems to be advocating running the economy on vibes, however. > The real problem with GDP ... is that it tempts us to view all human progress as an amorphous score, which we can start maximising just as soon as we fix whatever we think is wrong with how that score is calculated. No! The problem with GDP isn't that it's a score, it's that it's a BAD score. We know whats wrong with…

> The problem with GDP isn't that it's a score, it's that it's a BAD score

And so it is every other score. Economist have known since a good while that looking at a single number to inform policy decisions is bad, but if we try to take our entire paraphernalia of instruments and indicators (Gini index, inflation, velocity of money, consumer sentiment, development index, etc) people would be just as confused. GDP is a bad metric, but it's not worthless. It's a bad metric if you only use it in a vacuum, if you are knowledgeable and combine it with several others you would be more effective into improving the society at large.

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As one of Elon's ex-fan's (or at least had a generally positive opinion of him) like I suspect many of us here once were, it is astonishing how consistently wrong and ignorant he has been, and it has gotten worse year over year. I think there is a legitimate possibility he fried/is frying his brain on Ketamine.

There are numerous examples of people who appear to be intelligent, witty. Maybe they hid their darker sides (be it some authoritarian, populist, racist or otherwise objectively bad tendency). But they did hide them. But then something seems to change and they quite quickly descend into being very unlikeable. And it's not just always "ideas". It seems to permeate their entire being. The transformation includes going…

> We only notice this in some really high profile cases (Musk, Notch, a few politicians...)

I attribute this to the amplification effect of social media has on the output from these famous people.

But at the same time I blame their slide into madness on social media because for both Notch and Musk (and I would also add JK Rowling to this list) it all started with disproportionate amount of genuine hate from well meaning individuals for stating opinions slightly outside the Overton window. I think the "twitter mob" is frankly more to blame than the people themselves, because without it, all three of them would still censor their public outbursts more than they do now after the dams of hate against them have already broken and there's no lower depths they can sink to.

That's why I think it's important to be polite even to the assholes.

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#106
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who's never been an Elon fan, nah, he's been fairly consistently confused about basically everything for as long as he's been a public figure, but his fans were willing to turn a blind eye to a certain point, because they found his stuff aesthetically appealing.

Not at all. I’ve been following Elon for a long, long time. Since he was the PayPal guy who was going to blow his fortune buying Russian rockets. He was absolutely 100% focused on his ventures back then. His political awakening has been slowly happening over the last 10 years, at least his public persona. There was no “turning a blind eye” when I invested in Tesla when the Dragon capsule first docked with the ISS, in…

> when I invested in Tesla when the Dragon capsule first docked with the ISS, in 2012

This is what I mean! You invested in a company that made heavy consumer goods because he did a space thing! These are totally unrelated! You liked his aesthetics!

12 years previously to that, well, there was this nonsense: https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-arm-wrestle-paypal...

Like, I'm sorry, you can't tell me that's a sensible way to do software engineering.

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#107
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The same dollar buys me a lot more food and accomodation in rural areas. That's because food and accommodations are often less valuable in rural areas. Supply and demand, as they say. But that is outside of the scope of inflation. As before, inflation seeks to measure the value of the currency itself, which also fluctuates in value just like everything else. > Unfortunately, collective wage agreements, UI benefits…

> As before, inflation seeks to measure the value of the currency itself, which also fluctuates in value just like everything else. In the end the root problem is that both the EU and US suffer from having one currency for wildly different markets, which is causing a lot of issues. > You may be also implying that some people use the wrong tool for the job (i.e. trying to use inflation as a cost of living index), but…

> In the end the root problem is that both the EU and US suffer from having one currency for wildly different markets, which is causing a lot of issues.

What's the problem? Money is just debt. Having confidence that you can call the debt at a later date is the only property that is of true concern with currency. As long as you have the confidence, it theoretically doesn't really matter which currency you use as your IOU.

Perhaps you are suggesting that those particular currencies are losing confidence? You could especially make that case about the USD right now, methinks. But if each state/city/rural area in the USA, for example, had its own currency, would they really garner any more confidence? They are still subject to most of the same whims that is giving the USD its current look.

> "Inflation" is the _only_ tool other than stonk market indices that's being used by politicians, media and central banks

Aside from the media, which I think is a fair point – it likes the headline grabbing attention metrics, that's not really true. You are right that a primary objective of a central bank is to keep the currency stable so that people remain confident in it, so it may seem like it disproportionately focuses on the value of the currency, but that's kind of its job. But they aren't even looking at a single inflation measure. If I recall correctly, the US uses around 30 different measures of inflation internally.

> to judge "how is the economy?" and derive consequences, but as shown it's much too coarse of a hammer.

Thing is, the national economy doesn't really matter that much to your every day life, does it? As long as your local economy is strong, who cares (I mean in a self-serving way, not taking pity on those affected) if people on the other side of the country are struggling? While countries do vary, typically the nation is only concerned with big picture things like keeping confidence in the currency. The actual economic issues are for local governments to sort out.

Hence the old adage of the municipal government being the most important. And municipal governments should be looking at things like cost of living indices for their region. If they aren't, it is time for some tar and feathering.

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#108
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Let's compare SwissLife, a private healthcare insurance, to French 'securité sociale' healthcare bit. For every 100€ put in french national healthcare, 89 to 93 (depending on the year) are spent on healthcare. The rest is used for distribution and administrative tasks (and during a short time, debt repayment). What do you think SwissLife give it's insured back for ever 100€ they are paid? Between 12 an 15% are a…

That is not the measure in discussion. If SwissLife brings a better outcome from the 71 Euros than French national healthcare from 93 Euros (best case for French and worst from Swiss), then it is still better with SwissLife. Measure the outcome, not the money spent.

They do the same thing: reimburse healthcare professionals.

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#109
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As before, inflation seeks to measure the value of the currency itself, which also fluctuates in value just like everything else. In the end the root problem is that both the EU and US suffer from having one currency for wildly different markets, which is causing a lot of issues. > You may be also implying that some people use the wrong tool for the job (i.e. trying to use inflation as a cost of living index), but…

> In the end the root problem is that both the EU and US suffer from having one currency for wildly different markets, which is causing a lot of issues. What's the problem? Money is just debt. Having confidence that you can call the debt at a later date is the only property that is of true concern with currency. As long as you have the confidence, it theoretically doesn't really matter which currency you use as your…

> What's the problem? Money is just debt. Having confidence that you can call the debt at a later date is the only property that is of true concern with currency. As long as you have the confidence, it theoretically doesn't really matter which currency you use as your IOU.

The problem is the wild disparity in purchasing power. Like, with the same amount of money at your disposal, you're able to live like a king in the poorer parts of the country - but literally struggle to survive in the richer parts (i.e. urban/megalopolises). Currencies have two functions - long term value storage (which is what you're referring to with required confidence) and short-term value aka ad-hoc expenses, and that's what the wide masses use currency for mostly as they don't have much to save.

That's something that was seen as a serious problem here in the EU when the Eastern European nations were introduced in the Euro, and the predictions materialized as expected: Eastern European countries suddenly had merchants demanding Central European prices of goods (alone to prevent Central Europeans emptying the shelves and doing arbitrage trading), while pensions and wages didn't keep up with the price increases as the economy's productivity wasn't anywhere near enough. Hell, even the industrial heavyweight that is Germany struggled with that issue (the Euro was called "Teuro", from "teuer"="expensive"), the Eastern Europeans got hit orders of magnitude harder.

> You are right that a primary objective of a central bank is to keep the currency stable so that people remain confident in it, so it may seem like it disproportionately focuses on the value of the currency, but that's kind of its job.

Yeah, the infamous "the economy should be at 2% inflation" target where everyone dances around while conveniently ignoring the effects of that on the wide masses that don't have collective wage agreements.

> Thing is, the national economy doesn't really matter that much to your every day life, does it?

Media and politicians only focus about the national economy though! You won't ever hear a national news anchor talk about some random paper mill or whatever in a flyover state. But people see that the local economy is going to the gutter while politicians and media act like everything is fine. It's literally the "everything is fine" meme [1], and that's why public distrust in politicians, media and democracy itself is at rock bottom at the moment.

> Hence the old adage of the municipal government being the most important. And municipal governments should be looking at things like cost of living indices for their region.

They can't. They lack the legal authority and the tax income to do anything meaningful, and most issues are caused on a national level.

[1] https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/this-is-fine/

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#110
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the end the root problem is that both the EU and US suffer from having one currency for wildly different markets, which is causing a lot of issues. What's the problem? Money is just debt. Having confidence that you can call the debt at a later date is the only property that is of true concern with currency. As long as you have the confidence, it theoretically doesn't really matter which currency you use as your…

> What's the problem? Money is just debt. Having confidence that you can call the debt at a later date is the only property that is of true concern with currency. As long as you have the confidence, it theoretically doesn't really matter which currency you use as your IOU. The problem is the wild disparity in purchasing power. Like, with the same amount of money at your disposal, you're able to live like a king in th…

> The problem is the wild disparity in purchasing power.

While disparity in purchasing power might be a problem, what does that have to do with currency value? If you traded in apples instead of dollars/euros, the same disparity would be present. The urban accommodation seeker would have to pay three apples to every one apple the rural resident pays, changing nothing. This has little to do with currency.

> Media and politicians only focus about the national economy though!

For the soundbites to give a broad picture to the people, sure. There isn't enough time in the day to go into great detail. That is only presented to pique your interest, though. If it does, you're going to dig deeper. If you don't care, then, well, they didn't waste your time giving you a four year economics degree for no reason. Tradeoffs, as usual.

> They lack the legal authority and the tax income to do anything meaningful, and most issues are caused on a national level.

Assuming democracy, they have all the authority you are willing to give them. If you've misguidedly given too much attention to the nation and not enough attention to the municipality, time to fix the people (this is becoming a recurring theme!) There is no need to modify your screwdriver to make it better at driving nails (which also can't be done without fixing the people!). Just use the damn hammer already.

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