Earth's clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming • Hacker News Board

Re: Earth's clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming

#101

Post by AshamedCaptain » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:26 PM UTC

banqjls wrote: post #76

Shekelphile wrote: post #71

My pet theory is that we are only a few decades away from turning earth into venus 2.0 at this point. It feels like we keep finding new catastrophic tipping points every few months at this point. It is worth mentioning that we are already in the last few hundred million years of earth's lifespan -- the sun was much dimmer last time the planet had this much GHG and warming going on. We may have already set the conditi…

> My pet theory is that we are only a few decades away from turning earth into venus 2.0 at this point. It feels like we keep finding new catastrophic tipping points every few months at this point. Given that the glaciers should’ve all melted by now, and that we can’t even predict with certainty whether it will rain tomorrow, I wouldn’t pay much attention to predictions.

Ever been in the famous Mer de Glace in France ? In the 1980s they had to build a cable car to descend from the old train station (which the glacier _almost_ reached at some point) to the surface level of the glacier, which had started descending. By the time they finished building the cable car, the glacier had descended so _much_ _more_ that in the 90s an extra 500 steps staircase had to be built to cover the ever-growing gap from the cable car stop to the new surface of the glacier. ~5 years ago, this gap was so large it would take an hour or so to climb up/down, so they had to build _a 2nd cable car_ to cover the new gap.

The new cable car even when it was in construction _already_ did no longer reach the glacier, as the glacier has descended another 20 steps since construction started: https://www.chamonix.net/english/news/chamonix-new-telecabin...

You can see with your own eyes not only how it is disappearing, but how much the speed at it which disappears increases year-by-year. If you ever plan to visit it, better do it so now; I find it unlikely there will be anything visitable left of it by the end of next decade.

Re: Earth's clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming

#102

Post by spacedcowboy » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:27 PM UTC

CorrectHorseBat wrote: post #48

spacedcowboy wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

R̶e̶a̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶t̶e̶x̶t̶…̶ - A̶ ̶w̶a̶t̶t̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶d̶e̶f̶i̶n̶e̶d̶ ̶a̶s̶ ̶1̶ ̶j̶o̶u̶l̶e̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶ ̶s̶e̶c̶o̶n̶d̶ ̶ A̶ ̶w̶a̶t̶t̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶1̶ ̶s̶e̶c̶o̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶r̶e̶f̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶e̶q̶u̶a̶l̶s̶ ̶1̶ ̶j̶o̶u̶l̶e̶,̶ ̶a̶ ̶m̶e̶a̶s̶u̶r̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶e̶n̶e̶r̶g̶y̶ - A̶ ̶T̶e̶r̶a̶w̶a̶t̶t̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶d̶a̶y̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶r̶e̶f̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶a̶l̶s̶o̶ ̶a̶ ̶m̶e̶a̶s̶u̶r̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶e̶n̶e̶r̶g̶y̶.̶ [edit: The earth receives 14.9 ZettaWatts of solar…

No they don't, you need to divide, not multiply just like you would with every other unit. 1l of rain every day is 1l/day, not 1l * day . Which means Watt per day is J/s^2

That’s changing “every day” into “per day”. Judging by the downvotes that is how people are reading it, but “specified time” of a rate-quantity is an integration, to me. Which makes it a multiply op over the time specified.

If you pour out one bucket of sand every hour, and you do that for 10 hours, I expect the quantity of sand to be measured in buckets.

Re: Earth's clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming

#103

Post by jillesvangurp » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:28 PM UTC

nurettin wrote: post #49

Wait, doesn't that mean less greenhouse effect?

You are right that water is a green house gas. You are wrong to assume the only water in the air is clouds. Clouds is basically water condensation. That happens a bit less in warm air; but the water is still there. You need cool air for condensation to happen. Warm air can hold more water in gas form.

Clouds reflect light and infrared radiation from the sun. Less clouds means more of that heat gets absorbed and then trapped by green house gases. Like water.

Re: Earth's clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming

#104

Post by jijijijij » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:28 PM UTC

CorrectHorseBat wrote: post #48

spacedcowboy wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

R̶e̶a̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶t̶e̶x̶t̶…̶ - A̶ ̶w̶a̶t̶t̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶d̶e̶f̶i̶n̶e̶d̶ ̶a̶s̶ ̶1̶ ̶j̶o̶u̶l̶e̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶ ̶s̶e̶c̶o̶n̶d̶ ̶ A̶ ̶w̶a̶t̶t̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶1̶ ̶s̶e̶c̶o̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶r̶e̶f̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶e̶q̶u̶a̶l̶s̶ ̶1̶ ̶j̶o̶u̶l̶e̶,̶ ̶a̶ ̶m̶e̶a̶s̶u̶r̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶e̶n̶e̶r̶g̶y̶ - A̶ ̶T̶e̶r̶a̶w̶a̶t̶t̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶d̶a̶y̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶r̶e̶f̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶a̶l̶s̶o̶ ̶a̶ ̶m̶e̶a̶s̶u̶r̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶e̶n̶e̶r̶g̶y̶.̶ [edit: The earth receives 14.9 ZettaWatts of solar…

No they don't, you need to divide, not multiply just like you would with every other unit. 1l of rain every day is 1l/day, not 1l * day . Which means Watt per day is J/s^2

If you want to be nitpicky about semantics, I think the only valid interpretation then is to take OP by their words and assume they meant energy transfer for 24h, since they did not write "per day" as you suggest:

"Earth gets over 170,000 terawatts of solar energy every day"

= 170 PW × 1d

= 170 × P(J/s) × 86.4 × ks

= 170 × 10¹⁵ × (J/s) × 86.4 × 10³ × s

= 14.6 × 10²¹ × J

= 14.6 ZJ

However, I also think "of solar energy" could be read as specifying the type of energy for the "rate of energy transfer", which is already implied in 'watt'. And since it's related to energy usage (rate), there really is no need to leave the "rate of energy transfer" interpretation at all and get hung up on "energy vs. power":

"Earth receives 170 petawatts as solar energy - 10,000 times the energy humanity uses, at any moment.

Edit: And let's be real, we all only feel very smart here because we just watched the latest Technology Connections video https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/OOK5xkFijPc :D

Re: Earth's clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming

#105

Post by morsch » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:30 PM UTC

nurettin wrote: post #49

Wait, doesn't that mean less greenhouse effect?

Water vapor in the atmosphere is complicated. At some altitudes, it causes atmospheric warming, at others, it increases albedo -- reflectivity -- and thus is cooling. Of course wrt to anthropogenic climate change the focus is usually on CO2; but man made water vapor emissions are relevant eg. in the context of air travel.

Re: Earth's clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming

#106

Post by janjanmax » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:33 PM UTC

The earth has dimmed 1 Watt/Meter. The loss of cloud coverage is due to Carbon Dioxide energy. It doesn’t allow cloud formation as the freezing point is increased. This CO2 effect on clouds was first published in 2017. The weather models of the 80s, 90s and oughts did not account for this. A 2019 Model showed high global temperatures by 2028-2032 in the high improbable range; however, those temperatures were experienced with a very close precision in 2024. You all can look this up.

Re: Earth's clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming

#107

Post by hkpack » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:33 PM UTC

banqjls wrote: post #76

Shekelphile wrote: post #71

My pet theory is that we are only a few decades away from turning earth into venus 2.0 at this point. It feels like we keep finding new catastrophic tipping points every few months at this point. It is worth mentioning that we are already in the last few hundred million years of earth's lifespan -- the sun was much dimmer last time the planet had this much GHG and warming going on. We may have already set the conditi…

> My pet theory is that we are only a few decades away from turning earth into venus 2.0 at this point. It feels like we keep finding new catastrophic tipping points every few months at this point. Given that the glaciers should’ve all melted by now, and that we can’t even predict with certainty whether it will rain tomorrow, I wouldn’t pay much attention to predictions.

> we can’t even predict with certainty whether it will rain tomorrow

It is very similar to the birthday paradox - it is an order of magnitude easier to predict average weather, than the exact weather at a specific time.

Despite that, we care about the former for our long term survival, and for the latter on whether to put on a rain coat today.

Re: Earth's clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming

#108

Post by Shekelphile » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:34 PM UTC

banqjls wrote: post #76

Shekelphile wrote: post #71

My pet theory is that we are only a few decades away from turning earth into venus 2.0 at this point. It feels like we keep finding new catastrophic tipping points every few months at this point. It is worth mentioning that we are already in the last few hundred million years of earth's lifespan -- the sun was much dimmer last time the planet had this much GHG and warming going on. We may have already set the conditi…

> My pet theory is that we are only a few decades away from turning earth into venus 2.0 at this point. It feels like we keep finding new catastrophic tipping points every few months at this point. Given that the glaciers should’ve all melted by now, and that we can’t even predict with certainty whether it will rain tomorrow, I wouldn’t pay much attention to predictions.

It isn't a prediction as much as it is a simple fact. Runaway greenhouse is inevitable, if we continue doing things to increase the greenhouse effect while simultaneously dropping the planet's albedo then the runaway greenhouse will happen much sooner.

Pretty much every 'breakthrough' in climate research in the last few decades has been finding new data showing we are dropping the planet's albedo much faster than expected. The biggest climate shock we have experienced in the last 20 years has been reduction in use of bunker oil fuel in ships which was masking the albedo loss from ice melt by flooding the upper atmosphere with reflective particulate pollution.

I am not worried about the increase in severe weather as much as I am worried about runaway greenhouse pretty much instantly destroying all multicellular life on the planet.

Re: Earth's clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming

#109

Post by spacedcowboy » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:34 PM UTC

treyd wrote: post #32

spacedcowboy wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

R̶e̶a̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶t̶e̶x̶t̶…̶ - A̶ ̶w̶a̶t̶t̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶d̶e̶f̶i̶n̶e̶d̶ ̶a̶s̶ ̶1̶ ̶j̶o̶u̶l̶e̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶ ̶s̶e̶c̶o̶n̶d̶ ̶ A̶ ̶w̶a̶t̶t̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶1̶ ̶s̶e̶c̶o̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶r̶e̶f̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶e̶q̶u̶a̶l̶s̶ ̶1̶ ̶j̶o̶u̶l̶e̶,̶ ̶a̶ ̶m̶e̶a̶s̶u̶r̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶e̶n̶e̶r̶g̶y̶ - A̶ ̶T̶e̶r̶a̶w̶a̶t̶t̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶d̶a̶y̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶r̶e̶f̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶a̶l̶s̶o̶ ̶a̶ ̶m̶e̶a̶s̶u̶r̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶e̶n̶e̶r̶g̶y̶.̶ [edit: The earth receives 14.9 ZettaWatts of solar…

Yeah the units cancel, that's the issue. The phrasing implies that after half a day it's received 85k terawatts which doesn't make any sense. Power (kg m^2 / s^3) * Time (s) = Energy (kg m^2 / s^2) Now from context it's obvious that what was meant is that Earth continually receives 170 terawatts from the sun. The phrasing is technically inaccurate, but it's a turn of phrase that works fine.

So, not knowing any better, I read it as meaning 170k TW/day, so 85k TW/12 hours made sense to me, but you’re right… [1]. The earth receives 14.9 ZettaWatts of solar radiation per day…

[1]: https://gosolarquotes.com.au/amount-of-solar-energy-hitting-...

Re: Earth's clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming

#110

Post by itishappy » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:34 PM UTC

anthropodie wrote: post #82

jansan wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What causes the shinkage of clouds? By writing "we’re stepping on the gas" you seem to imply that somehow humanity is causing this.

Do you mean my dog or other animals are responsible for this? Humans are the only species that are capable of modifying the environment.

No we are not, and a brief look at the history of the planet will show that. We're driving most of the changes today, but the planet itself also changes on it's own (tectonic shifts, for one), as do extra-planetary factors (solar cycles), and both of these impact our upper atmosphere.

From the article, there's significant uncertainty what's driving the currently measured effect:

> Climate scientists now need to figure out what’s causing these cloud changes.

> The team also found that 80% of the overall reflectivity changes in these regions resulted from shrinking clouds, rather than darker, less reflective ones, which could be caused by a drop in pollution. For Tselioudis, this clearly indicates that changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, not pollution reductions, are driving the trend.

> But Loeb, who leads work on the set of NASA satellite instruments called Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System, which tracks the energy imbalance, thinks pollution declines may be playing an important role in the cloud changes, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. “The observations are telling us something is definitely changing,” he says. “But it’s a complicated soup of processes.”

To your point, however, we do appear to be the only ones capable of intentionally modifying the environment, so if anybody's going to understand and address this, it'll be us.