What economist is advising Trump? Can we read their game plan somewhere?
Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
101–110 of 220 posts
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
It will suck on both sides, but the majority of American households can weather a $2-4k blow over the next year as supply chains react. Congress stepping in to exclude Canada and Mexico and the NAFTA exemption cushions the blow significantly. Most of Latin America being placed at the lower end of the announcement means manufacturers who used to be competitive until China Shock set around 2014-16 can be cost competiti…
> but the majority of American households can weather a $2-4k blow over the next year - Wasn’t this the administration that campaigned on lowering costs of goods? Now, not even a half-year in, the narrative is “Sorry, deal with it, while we chaotically disrupt global markets.” - The administration is apparently intent on a strategy that builds the U.S. manufacturing base. That’s not a one-year horizon, if ever.
There was a former Republican President who ran on the promise, "Read my lips, no new taxes". And then he raised taxes.
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#103Earlier quoted context omitted.
What does US farmers going bankrupt solve?
I believe you may have some reading comprehension problem with what they laid out? At least in the parents posters mind that less farm exports leads to less water usage. Hence bankrupt farmers solves things like aquifers going empty and lakes draining leavings environmental disasters. Now, how it actually works out in the end may be different, but the concept doesn't seem completely broken at first appearance.
> I believe you may have some reading comprehension problem with what they laid out?
Why the personal attack?
The top level comment didn't claim that it would solve the water problem, but that it would solve some apparent problem with Utahns but being able to buy alfalfa. Now another commentor is saying that it'll solve the water problem by putting farmers out of business. Is there a local unmet need for alfalfa?
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
So... you think Utahns are simply going to stop farming and end up destitute? I'm not following. No, they'll keep turning the spigot on because they have kids to feed, they'll just be poorer. If you want better water regulation in the Utah desert, the solution is better water regulation in the Utah desert and not a huge tax on trade.
Yeah, because passing water regulation under any administration, let alone this one, is a common occurrence. /s OP was just trying to make lemonade from the lemons we are served.
And I'm just saying that there are no lemons here. Empoverishing Utah farmers does nothing to fix their aquifer, period. They'll just be forced into less lucrative crops, and potentially into techniques that are more short-term and less protective of long term resources like water. Look at aquifer management elsewhere in the world. Are the poor countries doing a better job? Exactly.
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#105Earlier quoted context omitted.
No doubt Lutnick and Bessent are taking crazy risks with their strategy. If they are to be believed, their plan is to have a recession at the begining of the term to get long term bond price lower and refinance the debt. By their own account, they outright said to Trump things aren't going to be good until 2028. So, I guess we have to prepare for a few years of crap. Let's hope it doesn't trigger a depression that wo…
FWIW, that is 100% a retconned explanation. No one anywhere was talking about this theory until the last week. It's clear that Trump demanded tariffs, tried to do it once early, and got cold feet. What happened with Lutnick et. al. is Court Politics. They saw an opening to improve their own status by selling a creative lie that would allow Trump to do what he wants. So he bought the lie and picked new favorites. But…
I think at least some of them are also true believers. The administration is full of people that have their own extreme ideas on how the world should work and now they have the chance to try them.
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
What’s worrisome is, if they’re planning on things to suck until 2028, that is precisely when the next presidential election is supposed to happen. Suppose he feels like he must have 4 more years, to take credit for the V-shaped recovery, and not go out like a loser? Suppose he declines to step down?
They're already talking about how he can have a third term, 22nd amendment be damned.
The recent Civil War movie had the president serving a 3rd term leading to 19 states seceding. How would the blue states respond to Trump ignoring the 22nd amendment?
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s not the only solution, but it is one, as we saw back in the first Trump administration and their tariffs on, and the resulting counter tariffs from, China. It will almost certainly dramatically reduce demand for crops like this from the US, which will lead to less farmers (as many leave the business or go bankrupt) and ultimately less water usage by the farmers.
What does US farmers going bankrupt solve?
Farmland is overpriced in part due to farm subsidies. It will help bring land prices back to earth for other uses.
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, Chinese don’t have proper elections so there, I don't know. But you can be sure that in the USA, this will all stop in 2 years with the midterms, and be reversed in 4 with the presidential elections. No one other than Trump’s fan base likes this even now, imagine in a few months when people start feeling the terrible repercussions.
I am not part of Trump's fan base, and I am in favor of taking action to reverse decades of negative trends I've seen happening as a result of American corporations selling their souls to the highest outside bidders. It's going to be short term pain for long term gain.
Can you be specific about how you think any of these actions will fix that?
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#109>> Trump's Trade War That might be how it is understood locally, but on an international scale this is quickly moving from "Trump's" to "America's" trade war. Various levels of US government have had opportunity to weigh in, but have generally acquiesced to the recent tariff policies. Calling this a "trump problem" wont fly much longer. This is now American trade policy.
Yeah 1) He won the popular vote. His support actually increased the 2nd time around, and 2) He should be in a tiny jail cell right now, what was Biden doing for 4 years? This isn’t going away even if he leaves office in 4 years (which is looking unlikely).
> He should be in a tiny jail cell right now, what was Biden doing for 4 years?
Not causing a global financial crisis, mainly. But vis-a-vis his predecessor’s recurrent criminality, it’s hard to imagine what his options were, considering the capture of the remaining branches of government. Well, that, and the Constitution.
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#110I'm kinda happy about this. Our farmers in Utah lobby so hard for water, then use it to grow alfalfa which they sell to China because they can sell it there for more money than it can be sold locally. It boils my circuits that they ask for our precious water -- to which they have historically had an obvious right, growing our food -- and then basically ship it overseas. Keep the crops at least sold in the US, and hop…
But youve clearly defined what the problem is. Is a tariff the solution?
Tariffs look more and more like the Bolivian Tree Lizard cleanup plans: https://youtu.be/P9yruQM1ggc