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Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

seanobannon.substack.com

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Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#101

Post by mjevans »

_bin_ wrote: post #88
kragen wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't afford to go to war with an industrialized nation whose energy is immensely cheaper than your own, nor with a nuclear-armed nation. Solar panels are different from oil in that their producers cannot turn them off, so importing them now would increase your energy security, not decrease it. For EVs the situation is more complex because of potential backdoors in firmware, but PV modules do not have any firmwar…

I think you are misguided because of a true belief in "the system". The problem is systems often fail to handle bad-faith actors who intentionally abuse them. Absent a higher system, we lack good means to address this. But the system is not a moral good and we don't owe it to anyone or anything to maintain arbitrary rules when our enemies are using them to hamstring us and threaten our citizens, liberties, and way of…

A better solution is recognition that like all other math, patterns, and formulations of matter at micro and macro scales; those are natural patterns and the most optimal configuration for a precise enough criteria is going to be in the range of zero to one single natural solutions.

Should there be some process for rewarding those who discover those most optimal solutions to problems? Maybe.

Patents as they are currently implemented seem to be even less beneficial to the progress of science and useful arts (trades skills) than copyright. Unlike the consumer protection of brand reputation (trade mark); both create artificial scarcity and impede the development, distribution, and diversity of manufacturers of works which would benefit society and citizens.

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#102

Post by WalterBright »

_bin_ wrote: post #47
kragen wrote: post #21

The most significant US regulations in the area aren't even mentioned in this article: the prohibitively high tariffs on Chinese solar modules and electric vehicles, which at least double the cost of solar panels and EVs in the US compared to much of the rest of the world. Current US elites grew up in the energy crisis that started with the Arab oil embargo of 01973 cutting off US energy imports, and they seem determ…

Because we cannot afford, geopolitically, to have a hostile rival nation with whom we may in the next decade be at war control our energy. There is no if, and, or but about that. Of course, most of said solar and battery tech was originally developed by Americans; chinese bought old patents, bought companies out of bankruptcy, and threw obscene amounts of state capital at developing it further. and now we're stuck wi…

Japan's entry into WW2 was the result of not controlling their oil needs.

A large part of the German's military initiatives in WW2 were about obtaining access to oil, and the most successful Allied initiatives were about cutting off that oil.

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#103

Post by asacrowflies »

_bin_ wrote: post #88
kragen wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't afford to go to war with an industrialized nation whose energy is immensely cheaper than your own, nor with a nuclear-armed nation. Solar panels are different from oil in that their producers cannot turn them off, so importing them now would increase your energy security, not decrease it. For EVs the situation is more complex because of potential backdoors in firmware, but PV modules do not have any firmwar…

I think you are misguided because of a true belief in "the system". The problem is systems often fail to handle bad-faith actors who intentionally abuse them. Absent a higher system, we lack good means to address this. But the system is not a moral good and we don't owe it to anyone or anything to maintain arbitrary rules when our enemies are using them to hamstring us and threaten our citizens, liberties, and way of…

[flagged]

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#104

Post by VintageCool »

_bin_ wrote: post #47
kragen wrote: post #21

The most significant US regulations in the area aren't even mentioned in this article: the prohibitively high tariffs on Chinese solar modules and electric vehicles, which at least double the cost of solar panels and EVs in the US compared to much of the rest of the world. Current US elites grew up in the energy crisis that started with the Arab oil embargo of 01973 cutting off US energy imports, and they seem determ…

Because we cannot afford, geopolitically, to have a hostile rival nation with whom we may in the next decade be at war control our energy. There is no if, and, or but about that. Of course, most of said solar and battery tech was originally developed by Americans; chinese bought old patents, bought companies out of bankruptcy, and threw obscene amounts of state capital at developing it further. and now we're stuck wi…

If China is manufacturing solar panels for us, that doesn't give them control of our energy supply.

It's not like being dependent on Saudi Arabia to supply oil. If China cuts us off from new solar panels, the solar panels we already have continue to provide electricity. It would only slow the rate of deployment, which we're already doing to ourselves by imposing a tariff on solar panel imports.

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#105

Post by tomrod »

kragen wrote: post #21

The most significant US regulations in the area aren't even mentioned in this article: the prohibitively high tariffs on Chinese solar modules and electric vehicles, which at least double the cost of solar panels and EVs in the US compared to much of the rest of the world. Current US elites grew up in the energy crisis that started with the Arab oil embargo of 01973 cutting off US energy imports, and they seem determ…

As a sidenote, I love that you reference 1973 as 01973. I suggest considering labeling even as 11973, based on some reasonable humanist-based information.[0]

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czgOWmtGVGs

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#106

Post by TheGrimGeometer »

kccqzy wrote: post #84
TheGrimGeometer wrote: post #75

The article lays out 3 different business models in the energy industry and calls them "regulated", "partially deregulated", and "deregulated". While the distinction between them isn't made very clear (at least to me), it argues that the "deregulated" models are better at responding to market conditions, and thus better at pivoting to solar power, than regulated ones. It doesn't clearly tie the choice of business mod…

I thought the article did a good job answering your questions. > TVA benefits from existing capex in large nuclear and hydro plants, enjoys low rates, and has little incentive to change. So apparently TVA has already invested in large nuclear and hydro and doesn't need more power. It's not about to build more solar so that it can shut down its nuclear or hydro plants. No business will cannibalize itself like this. It…

> large capex in existing infrastructure with little incentive to change is common to most large companies, so picking the TVA as the "regulated" energy example seems a little like cherry-picking to me.

> I'm not read into the details of PPA regulations. There may be a good point there about how some/all of them are too onerous which de-incentivizes change. idk.

> ensuring that companies we entrust with providing critical infrastructure are resilient to extreme weather is a matter of regulation. I think that the Texas and California examples were both specific instances of regulatory failures regardless of their ambient culture of regulation.

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#107

Post by kragen »

tuatoru wrote: post #92
kragen wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't afford to go to war with an industrialized nation whose energy is immensely cheaper than your own, nor with a nuclear-armed nation. Solar panels are different from oil in that their producers cannot turn them off, so importing them now would increase your energy security, not decrease it. For EVs the situation is more complex because of potential backdoors in firmware, but PV modules do not have any firmwar…

Security is not provided by having stuff, it's provided by having the capacity to make stuff. Importing now does not increase security. Edit: one thing the Trump-Vance administration has done is tear through the tissue-paper screen of "rules based international order" rhetoric, exposing to plain view that we live in a world of great powers and international anarchy. As we have always done, but somehow allowed ourselv…

You know what you need to make stuff? Energy. You need energy. And that's what the US government's fossil-fuel-subsidizing bullshit is denying you.

Importing oil and gas now does not increase security, but importing PV modules does, because it gives you the capacity to produce energy from them for 20 years (module warranty period) or more likely 100 years (how long they'll actually work, though below the 80% of original capacity the warranty guarantees). Moreover, distributed generation with PV panels is enormously more resilient to being blown up by Chinese nukes or Russian, Ukrainian, or Chinese drone swarms than a few big coal power stations and oil refineries. (To say nothing of global warming.)

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#108

Post by kragen »

asacrowflies wrote: post #103
_bin_ wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are misguided because of a true belief in "the system". The problem is systems often fail to handle bad-faith actors who intentionally abuse them. Absent a higher system, we lack good means to address this. But the system is not a moral good and we don't owe it to anyone or anything to maintain arbitrary rules when our enemies are using them to hamstring us and threaten our citizens, liberties, and way of…

[flagged]

I am not confident that this comment promotes an atmosphere of curious inquiry based on a presumption of good faith.

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#109

Post by merely-unlikely »

cbsmith wrote: post #85
merely-unlikely wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some data: China's share of of electricity production from coal is at 60% as of 2023[1] compared to 16% for the US[2]. That's down from 80% in 2005. It currently generates 35% of its electricity from renewable sources as of 2023 compared to 41% in the US. The US has been replacing coal with gas - gas was 19% in 2005 and 42% in 2023. China first exceeded the US's annual carbon emissions in 2006 with both outputting ab…

> China's share of of electricity production from coal is at 60% as of 2023[1] compared to 16% for the US[2]. That's down from 80% in 2005. Yeah, but they're kind of leapfrogging from coal to clean energy. In 10 years, they are expected to be at 60% renewables.

> from coal to clean energy

The reason I'm skeptical of that framing is it implies coal production is being replaced by clean energy, rather than total energy production being increased.

Coal production continues to climb[1] and construction of new coal plants hit a 10 year high in 2024[2]. China accounted for 95% of the world’s new coal power construction activity in 2023[3].

Lots of countries announce decarbonization goals, but I will remain skeptical until the data show progress.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coal-production-by-countr...

[2] https://www.carbonbrief.org/chinas-construction-of-new-coal-...

[3] https://www.carbonbrief.org/china-responsible-for-95-of-new-...

Re: Deregulated energy markets accelerate solar adoption

#110

Post by themaninthedark »

krapp wrote: post #56
themaninthedark wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a large part of why I think we need to move manufacturing for domestic products back to the US. The argument was always that the labor and regulations cost too much but the labor abuse and pollution are costing us more.

You don't think domestic manufacturers will abuse labor and pollute? The same party that wants to move manufacturing back to the US also wants to deregulate as much as possible, roll back labor rights and repeal environmental laws. The cost of moving manufacturing out of China and to the US is that the few Americans who can get work in a mostly AI driven and automated industry will eventually get treated and paid lik…

I think that some domestic manufacturers will abuse labor and pollute, you will never have 100% compliance. However it is far easier to police things here then somewhere without our regulatory framework. If Nike could get away with child sweatshops in the US, why did they bother moving abroad?

Sure, they want to roll back all those protections but we don't have to. And more to the point, why doesn't the US party that champions labor rights and environmental regulations want to move manufacturing back to the US? It's very easy to say you support factory worker rights when you don't have any factory workers.

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