Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown • Hacker News Board

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#101

Post by rayiner » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 5:55 PM UTC

iamtheworstdev wrote: post #54

voidhorse wrote: post #7

This administration is either intentionally performing market manipulation or is simply incompetent. Either way, we all lose. Hope the general populous is happy with their choice, lol.

It's intentional. Anyone thinking otherwise hasn't been listening to Treasury Sec Bissent talk these last two months. The goal to lower prices is to "increase supply and lower demand," and yes that's a direct quote. You don't lower demand by asking people to stop buying things. You lower demand by reducing people's ability to buy things.

That’s not some secret plan, that’s how policymakers historically address inflation: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/7/13/23188455/inflat...

> Higher interest rates generally reduce inflation by reducing spending, which in turn slows the economy and can lead to mass unemployment.

> One of the people who denounced Volcker’s moves was then-Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd, who declared after Volcker announced his new effort in October 1979, “Attempting to control inflation or protect the dollar by throwing legions of people out of work and shutting down shifts in our factories and mines is a hopeless policy.“

The question is if the recession can be structured to disproportionately hit financialized and knowledge industries while sparing manufacturing.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#102

Post by skippyboxedhero » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 5:55 PM UTC

touwer wrote: post #15

billy99k wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Not true and you know it

I am not sure why people need to believe that no-one can disagree with their closely-held political views.

The market is overvalued, it has been overvalued for a long time. It is not possible for this to continue forever, the market going down is not a sign that the world is ending. When the market went up under Trump, the same media said it had nothing to do with him...this isn't a real point of view, it is emotional, ex-post rationalisation to justify political views.

Just generally, you can't complain about the government spending $1m on a packet of nails AND complain when those subsidies are removed.

Equally, Biden had the same goals as Trump with some of his actions but he did it through massive corporate subsidies...again, do you think corporate subsidies are preferable? Is it possible or wise for the US to grow productively through growth in low-skill labour and reduction in wages? Again, probably not.

Either way, these are things people can disagree about. The ex-post reasoning is hilarious, a few years ago it was wall-to-wall doom on here, now nobody can think that Biden did anything wrong, lol. I wonder if some people are just unable to recollect what they believed in the past?

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#103

Post by SlightlyLeftPad » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 5:55 PM UTC

mattmaroon wrote: post #50

JKCalhoun wrote: post #8

It'll be wild to see how Congress responds.

It's commonly said Presidents get 100 days in office to enact the bulk of their platform. It's an approximation, of course, but it's about then that the new-to-office approval rating bump starts to wane and Congress starts gearing up for midterms. We're about half way there. If the economy is in bad shape in May, I would not be surprised if Congress intervenes on tariffs. The fear of being primaried by MAGA loyalists…

It should be clear now that the GOP has nearly total and absolute control over the MAGA base, meaning they will take whatever spin they’ve been given by the party.

In other words, the GOP can do whatever it wants or nothing at all and it will get little pushback from their voters. That’s a pretty powerful position to be in as a party.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#104

Post by doctorpangloss » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 5:55 PM UTC

miohtama wrote: post #95

voidhorse wrote: post #7

This administration is either intentionally performing market manipulation or is simply incompetent. Either way, we all lose. Hope the general populous is happy with their choice, lol.

Arthur Hayes, the founder of Bitmex, argues that Trump tries to manufacture recession to get lower interest rates (for his real estate empire) https://cryptohayes.medium.com/kiss-of-death-916ae30fedc5

Not just Trump, but every truly rich person in the US has described “high interest rates” as their number one complaint with the economy.

The problem is that these people complaining about interest rates are stupid.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#105

Post by bad_user » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 5:56 PM UTC

softwaredoug wrote: post #14

After the election I know Canadian and colleagues from other countries thought of moving to US for an easier time building a business. Curious if anyone from the founder / small business crowd has had this feeling and either is still interested/happy with such a move? Or regretting it? IIRC Culturally it was said by many that the US is much better that EU / Canada for building a business as US rewards ambition. While…

The US makes startups easier due to easy access to capital from investors. OTOH, I'd be wary of starting a lifestyle business in the US due to the poor social safety net.

Red tape is also a concern, but it depends on what European country you're talking of, some are better than others, and red tape is awful in the US as well, depending on the state.

Those are basically the only considerations, everything else (like culture) is BS.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#106

Post by Balgair » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 5:56 PM UTC

voidhorse wrote: post #7

This administration is either intentionally performing market manipulation or is simply incompetent. Either way, we all lose. Hope the general populous is happy with their choice, lol.

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

-Hanlon's razor

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#107

Post by quest88 » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 5:56 PM UTC

boo-ga-ga wrote: post #59

BenFranklin100 wrote: post #22

Tesla stock has been particularly hammered. Ontario apparently cancelled a Starlink contract and Italy is considering to do so as well. Musk’s political antics are affecting his businesses.

But he continues doing what he started. Considering the fact that he is very smart and definitely hungry for absolute power, you can think about his true goal. If he is ready to risk that much of his worth, it means that the potential win for him will bring so much more.

https://elonmusk.today/

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#108

Post by jghn » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 5:56 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #87

jghn wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SP500 is already down 10% in the last month

> SP500 is already down 10% in the last month Not yet. Nasdaq is in correction, but the S&P is only down 8.6% from its 19 February high of 6,144 [1]. (5,529.) [1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-falls-back-into-cor...

Yes. I eyeballed it at roughly 9% earlier and rounded up. My point stands. We're already pretty much in the ballpark of what GP cited.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#109

Post by sanktanglia » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 5:56 PM UTC

mattmaroon wrote: post #50

JKCalhoun wrote: post #8

It'll be wild to see how Congress responds.

It's commonly said Presidents get 100 days in office to enact the bulk of their platform. It's an approximation, of course, but it's about then that the new-to-office approval rating bump starts to wane and Congress starts gearing up for midterms. We're about half way there. If the economy is in bad shape in May, I would not be surprised if Congress intervenes on tariffs. The fear of being primaried by MAGA loyalists…

You think sebete republicans are going to have a spine? Boy do you have wayyy more faith in them than they deserve.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#110

Post by JumpCrisscross » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 5:57 PM UTC

rufus_foreman wrote: post #75

JKCalhoun wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With talk of a anticipated 10% to 20% drop in the markets, their silence could be ruinous.

The stock market falls by 10% or more on average every 1.2 years: https://www.covenantwealthadvisors.com/post/understanding-st... . There were 5 such drops in 2020, 4 in 2022, and 1 in 2023. Somehow, the nation avoided ruin during those periods.

> There were 5 such drops in 2020, 4 in 2022, and 1 in 2023. Somehow, the nation avoided ruin during those periods

Come on, look at your numbers. Recession in 2020 with 5 blips on the monitor. Last quarter we saw negative real GDP Q1 ‘22, 4 blips. 1 blip in ‘23 and none in ‘24 while the economy did so well prices overheated.

Now we’re seeing 1 blip in Q1. If we annualise that to 4 blips, it puts us back in the last year in which we had a single quarter with negative real GDP growth.