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Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

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Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#101

Post by ambicapter »

only-one1701 wrote: post #22

Maybe I'm just cynical, but I wonder how much of this initiative and energy is driven by people at Microsoft who want their own star to rise higher than it can when it's bound by a third-party technology. I feel like this is something I've seen a fair amount in my career. About seven years ago, when Google was theoretically making a big push to stage Angular on par with React, I remember complaining that the document…

Does it not make sense to not tie your future to a third-party (aka build your business on someone else's platform)? Seems like basic strategy to me if that's the case.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#102

Post by tossracct »

bsimpson wrote: post #34
only-one1701 wrote: post #22

Maybe I'm just cynical, but I wonder how much of this initiative and energy is driven by people at Microsoft who want their own star to rise higher than it can when it's bound by a third-party technology. I feel like this is something I've seen a fair amount in my career. About seven years ago, when Google was theoretically making a big push to stage Angular on par with React, I remember complaining that the document…

There is a prominent subset of the tech crowd who are ladder climbers - ruthlessly pursuing what is rewarded with pay/title/prestige without regard to actually making good stuff. There are countless kidding-on-the-square jokes about projects where the innovators left at launch and passed it off to the maintenance team, or where a rebrand was in pursuit of someone's promo project. See also, killedbygoogle.com.

[dead]

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#103

Post by taco_emoji »

jimbokun wrote: post #49
only-one1701 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People sincerely think we're < 5 years away from this?

Is there some fundamental constraint keeping it from happening? What cognitive capability do humans have that machines won't be able to replicate in that time frame? Each remaining barrier has been steadily falling.

What barriers have fallen? Computers still can't even drive cars

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#104

Post by darkhorse222 »

supriyo-biswas wrote: post #66
bsimpson wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a prominent subset of the tech crowd who are ladder climbers - ruthlessly pursuing what is rewarded with pay/title/prestige without regard to actually making good stuff. There are countless kidding-on-the-square jokes about projects where the innovators left at launch and passed it off to the maintenance team, or where a rebrand was in pursuit of someone's promo project. See also, killedbygoogle.com.

At my former employer, there was a team who were very much into resume-driven development and wrote projects in Go even when Java would have been the better alternative considering the overall department and maintenance team expertise, all the while they were informally grumbling about how Go doesn’t have the features they need…

I see that a lot from the Go crowd. That's why I consider any strong opinions on languages to be a poor indicator for ability. Sure there's differences, but a language does not make the engineer. Someone who is attracted to flashy stuff makes for an indulgent planner.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#105

Post by YetAnotherNick »

klelatti wrote: post #91
YetAnotherNick wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What moat does Nvidia have. AMD could have ROCm perfected if they really want to. Also most of pytorch, specially those relevant to transformers runs perfectly on Apple Silicon and TPUs and probably other hardware as well. If anyone has moat related to Gen AI, I would say it is the data(Google, Meta).

> AMD could have ROCm perfected if they really want to. It's not an act of will or CEO dictat. It's about hiring and incentivising the right people, putting the right structures in place etc all in the face of competing demands. Nvidia have a huge head start and by the time AMD have 'caught up' Nvidia with it's greater resources will have moved further ahead.

If head start is a moat, why wouldn't you count OpenAI's headstart as moat?

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#106

Post by vinni2 »

moelf wrote: post #39
paxys wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty funny that OpenAI wants to sell access to a "PhD level" model at a price with which you can hire like 3-5 real human PhDs full-time.

$20k can't get you that many PhD. Even PhD students, who's nominal salary is maybe $3-5k a month, effectively costs double that because of school overhead and other stuff.

Depends on what these PhDs are supposed to do. Also is this an average Phd or a brilliant PhD level? There is a huge spectrum of PhDs out there. I highly doubt these phd level models are able to solve any problems in a creative way or discover new things other than regurgitating the knowledge they are trained on.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#107

Post by pradn »

only-one1701 wrote: post #22

Maybe I'm just cynical, but I wonder how much of this initiative and energy is driven by people at Microsoft who want their own star to rise higher than it can when it's bound by a third-party technology. I feel like this is something I've seen a fair amount in my career. About seven years ago, when Google was theoretically making a big push to stage Angular on par with React, I remember complaining that the document…

It's the responsibility of leadership to set the correct goals and metrics. If leadership doesn't value maintenance, those they lead won't either. You can't blame people for playing to the tune of those above them.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#108

Post by m463 »

only-one1701 wrote: post #22

Maybe I'm just cynical, but I wonder how much of this initiative and energy is driven by people at Microsoft who want their own star to rise higher than it can when it's bound by a third-party technology. I feel like this is something I've seen a fair amount in my career. About seven years ago, when Google was theoretically making a big push to stage Angular on par with React, I remember complaining that the document…

I wonder if incentives for most companies favor doing things in-house?

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#110

Post by Fernicia »

paxys wrote: post #36
DebtDeflation wrote: post #31

A couple of days ago it leaked that OpenAI was planning on launching new pricing for their AI Agents. $20K/mo for their PhD Level Agent, $10K/mo for their Software Developer Agent, and $2K/mo for their Knowledge Worker Agent. I found it very telling. Not because I think anyone is going to pay this, but rather because this is the type of pricing they need to actually make money. At $20 or even $200 per month, they'll…

It's pretty funny that OpenAI wants to sell access to a "PhD level" model at a price with which you can hire like 3-5 real human PhDs full-time.

Well, a model with PhD level intelligence could presumably produce research in minutes that would take an actual PhD days or months.
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