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Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

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Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#101
post #53
post #22

A few things from the Dwarkesh interview with Satya: * He sees data center leases getting cheaper in near future due to everyone building * He’s investing big in AI, but in every year there needs to be a rough balance between capacity and need for capacity * He doesn’t necessarily believe in fast takeoff AGI (just yet) * Even if there is fast takeoff AGI, he thinks human messiness will slow implementation * It won’t…

> Even if there is fast takeoff AGI, he thinks human messiness will slow implementation Five years ago during covid all these clunky legacy businesses couldn't figure out a CSV let alone APIs but suddenly with AGI they are going to become tech masters and know how to automate and processize their entire operations? I found it very amusing that at the turn of the decade "digitalisation" was a buzzword as Amazon was ap…

Counterpoint: the PC.

The minicomputer revolution was meant to replace all the big iron in the basement with computers shared by teams. This lasted a decade until we got computers meant for one person and we've used that format of computation for nearly 50 years now.

Everyone is talking about how AI will replace people.

It won't.

AI without HI is useless. However, HI with AI is much better at handling all the bullshit office work that needs to get done—anyone who doesn't understand this is either an idiot, a troglodyte, or already has an expendable army of minions doing their work.

The surge in AI demand won't be top-down but bottom-up. That stupid office birthday wish card being passed around? I can Shakespeare the motherfucker. And that email to the big boss telling him the project is doomed and that he needs a compass to find his own ass? Let's ask R1.

>My boss is a moron who can't find his ass without a compass. His latest tech initiative will cost us millions and make the best staff leave. Write a professional letter that covers those points without being harsh.

---

Subject: Request for Review of Upcoming [Tech Initiative]

Dear [Recipient Name/Team Name],

I hope this message finds you well. I wanted to share some thoughts regarding our upcoming [Tech Initiative Name], as I believe open dialogue will ensure its success while aligning with our team’s strengths and long-term goals.

While the initiative’s intent to innovate is commendable, I’ve observed several potential challenges that may impact its effectiveness:

Financial Impact: Based on preliminary analysis, the projected costs appear to be significantly higher than initially estimated. A detailed cost-benefit review or phased rollout might help mitigate financial risk while allowing us to test feasibility.

Team Retention Concerns: Many of our top performers have expressed reservations about the initiative’s current structure, particularly around [specific pain point, e.g., workflow disruption, lack of clarity]. Retaining their expertise will be critical to execution, and their insights could refine the plan to better address on-the-ground needs.

To ensure alignment with both our strategic objectives and team capacity, I respectfully suggest:

Conducting a collaborative risk assessment with department leads.

Piloting the initiative in a controlled environment to gather feedback.

Hosting a forum for staff to voice concerns/solutions pre-launch.

I’m confident that with adjustments, this project can achieve its goals while preserving morale and resources. Thank you for considering this perspective—I’m eager to support any steps toward a sustainable path forward.

Best regards,

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#102
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All I hear is anecdotal statements from people claiming LLMs have made them some percent more productive. Yet few actually say how or demonstrate it. For the last year, I've tried all sorts of models both as hosted services and running locally with llama.cpp or ollama. I've used both the continue.dev vscode extension and cursor more recently. The results have been frustrating at best. The user interface of the tools…

If LLM chatbots are making you vastly more productive in a field, you are in the bottom 20% of that field. They're still useful tools for exploring new disciplines, but if you're say a programmer and you think ChatGPT or DeepSeek is good at programming, that's a good sign you need to start improving.

If you have to tell others that then perhaps some introspection for yourself might be helpful. Comes across more as denial than constructive commentary.

I do believe the benefit decreases the more senior or familiar the work is but there is still a noticeable benefit and I think it largely depends on the velocity and life cycle of the product. I think you get less benefit the slower the velocity or the more mature of a product. To deny it like in your post is simply being an intellectual minimalist.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In other words “Stargate” is itself a lie: no new spending, just a political repackaging of existing plans.

That's nothing new, politicians lie all the time. Everyone's response when a politician announcing some supposed massive spending program should be to say "show me the appropriation bill and receipts, then we can talk."

Appropriation bills don't go as far as they used to anymore as well...

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#104

Microsoft CEO Admits That AI Is Generating Basically No Value - https://futurism.com/microsoft-ceo-ai-generating-no-value Bit of a click bait title, but it certainly seems like the realization is setting in that the hype has exceeded near term realistic expectations and some are walking back claims (for whatever reason; honesty, derisking against investor securities suits, poor capital allocation, etc). Nadella appea…

[deleted]

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#105
post #22

A few things from the Dwarkesh interview with Satya: * He sees data center leases getting cheaper in near future due to everyone building * He’s investing big in AI, but in every year there needs to be a rough balance between capacity and need for capacity * He doesn’t necessarily believe in fast takeoff AGI (just yet) * Even if there is fast takeoff AGI, he thinks human messiness will slow implementation * It won’t…

This is a very refreshing take.

Our current intellectual milieu is largely incapable of nuance—everything is black or white, on or off, good or evil. Too many people believe that the AI question is as bipolar as every other topic is today: Will AI be godlike or will it be worthless? Will it be a force for absolute good or a force for absolute evil?

It's nice to see someone in the inner circles of the hype finally acknowledge that AI, like just about everything else, will almost certainly not exist at the extremes. Neither God nor Satan, neither omnipotent nor worthless: useful but not humanity's final apotheosis.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#106
post #75
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just in the past couple months there have been a number of "I am a senior/principal engineer and this is how I use LLMs". I would agree that the tools are not optimal yet but every iteration has improved for me. Maybe whatever language you are coding it or whatever project you are working on is not a good fit? It is an equally perplexing situation for myself when I hear anecdotes like yours which don't align with my…

What kinds of projects are you working on? My experience is jot very good with these tools (expanded in a sibling comment).

Generally a lot of web-dev which is where I would assume LLMs shine the best. I noted elsewhere but I think it depends a lot on the age of the product and the level of velocity. For early life products where the speed of your velocity matters, I think you can get the most benefit. The more mature the product and the slower the team implements features, the benefits are still measurable but not as high.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#107
a lot of this sounds like a normal course of business and stuff that msft does all the time. i don't understand the openai drama speculation on here. msft continues to have right of first refusal on openai training and exclusivity on inferencing. if someone else wants to build up openai capacity to spend money on msft for inferencing, msft would be thrilled. they recognize revenue on inferecing not training at the moment, so it's all upside to their revenue numbers

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#109
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even if there is fast takeoff AGI, he thinks human messiness will slow implementation Five years ago during covid all these clunky legacy businesses couldn't figure out a CSV let alone APIs but suddenly with AGI they are going to become tech masters and know how to automate and processize their entire operations? I found it very amusing that at the turn of the decade "digitalisation" was a buzzword as Amazon was ap…

But why are these sort of orgs slow and useless? I don't think it is because they have made a conscious decision to do so - I think it is more than they do not have the resources to do anything else. They can't afford to hire in huge teams of engineers and product managers and researchers to modernize their systems. If suddenly the NHS had a team of "free" genuinely phd-level AGI engineers working 24/7 they'd make a…

It's not a resource problem; everyone inside the system has no real incentive to do anything innovative; improving something incrementally is more likely to be seen as extra work by your colleagues and be detrimental to the person who implemented it.

What's more likely is a significantly better system is introduced somewhere, NHS can't keep up and is rebuilt by an external. (Or more likely it becomes a inferior system of a lesser nation as the UK continues its decline).

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time to sort NVDA?

A fellow degenerate gambler I see. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, trade with caution. Being early is the same as being wrong.

A common hypothesis for why Nvidia is so hot is because they have an effective monopoly on the hardware to train AI models and it requires a crap ton of hardware.

With DeepSeek it’s been demonstrated you can get pretty damn for a lot cheaper. I can only imagine that there are tons of investors thinking that it’s better to invest their dollars in undercutting the costs of new models vs investing billions in hardware.

The question is, can Nvidia maintain their grip on the market in the face of these pressures. If you think they can’t, then a short position doesn’t seem like that big of a gamble.

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