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Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

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Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#101

Post by myvoiceismypass »

atmosx wrote: post #78
meisel wrote: post #23

This article presents a readable overview of today’s NBA trends, but IMO is too absolute in its judgment. Basketball is not a solved sport. There is still innovation, for example with OKC’s historically good defense that relies on playing 5 smaller but faster players. There are still good all-around players. There are still people that hit a lot of mid range shots. We have trends going the other way, sure, but they h…

In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…

> At this point, injuries, not players or teams, are deciding who moves forward.

Football is kinda like this at this point too. Some fraction of the top QBs are going to go down each year, and it feels like a limp to the finish.

That being said, somehow Wilt Chamberlain once played a season in which he only missed 8 and a half minutes total in the entire season, including OT. Amazing. Times have changed but that will never happen again now.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#103

Post by darkerside »

deeg wrote: post #87

I play and watch a lot of basketball and this article seems to be written by someone who doesn't do either. The idea that players are more specialized is wrong. In the 90s there were plenty of defense-only players like Denis Rodman and Ben Wallace; they might not start in today's NBA, let alone make all-star teams, because they are too one-dimensional. A good counter to these arguments is made on the Thinking Basketb…

Disagree. Also watch and play a lot. And also think the article is poorly written, amateur analysis FWIW.

That said, Wallace was 2000s, not 90s, and they were specialists whose exception proved the rule. Basketball then was much more positional, so you did have specialists in that you expected your PF to rebound, your SG to shoot, etc. Considering the modern game is much more positionless, it is surprising that in relation that foundation, there is much so much more focus on specialized skills (3pt shooting, wing defense, paint protection, offensive rebounding).

Also agree that Thinking Basketball is a terrific podcast.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#104

Post by kaonwarb »

atmosx wrote: post #78
meisel wrote: post #23

This article presents a readable overview of today’s NBA trends, but IMO is too absolute in its judgment. Basketball is not a solved sport. There is still innovation, for example with OKC’s historically good defense that relies on playing 5 smaller but faster players. There are still good all-around players. There are still people that hit a lot of mid range shots. We have trends going the other way, sure, but they h…

In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…

On season length: the NBA moved to an 82-game season in 1967.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#105

Post by darkerside »

owlninja wrote: post #32
lawgimenez wrote: post #19

I think the NBA needs to focus on how to make more people tune in to the first half of the season. And player’s load management is getting ridiculous.

As a lifelong Mavericks fan, I hope the NBA fails...They've lost me.

Sorry for your loss

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#106

Post by skippyboxedhero »

threemux wrote: post #24

This happens at times in all sports. The NFL is a prime example. QBs were lighting up big, heavy defenses with deep passes. Then teams ran two high safeties to prevent this. This year, offenses adjusted again to run more against the smaller linebackers and nickel/dime packages.

With the quantification of sport, it has becoming increasingly common for people who only look at the statistics to assume that some global strategic minima has been achieved. In reality, in every competitive invasion-based game strategies adapt.

The adaption varies by sport - without going into the weeds, basketball is less random than other invasion sports so there has been typically been a higher premia on player talent so you see high levels of strategic adaption to individual players...by contrast, you don't see this in soccer to the same degree, apart from the top one or two players - but it happens all the same. For some reason, the assumption is that without quantification none of this stuff would be obvious...but if you look at the history of almost every invasion sport there have been strategic adaptions over years/decades/centuries because this stuff is obvious to people playing it.

To be clear, this doesn't happen in non-invasion sports. There is no strategic adaption so you see interesting things like the ability to compare statistical records over long periods (to a certain degree, over very long periods the rules often change and there can be adaption due to generally increasing physical capacity of athletes).

In other words, there is always someone who wants to spoil the fun. The beauty of invasion games is that there is no global minima (and there is a profound lack of joy in non-invasion sports when someone has a higher level than the competition, and just annihilates everyone every match).

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#107

Post by darkerside »

rambambram wrote: post #29

I haven't looked at the NBA in more than 20 years and recently started watching it again. I was shocked. Not necessarily by all the three point shots, but more about the carrying of the ball, the multiple extra steps that players take before dunking or laying up, and getting extra free throws when it's the offensive players who rams into a still standing defender. If I want to watch rugby or ice hockey, then I watch…

Look up the gather step.

Agree on offensive players drawing fouls.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#108

Post by gfunk911 »

streptomycin wrote: post #100

Danny Green is probably the father of [the 3-and-D] model, with his 40% career three-point field goal percentage and he also made into all-defensive team. Obviously people shot fewer 3s back then, but as far as I remember, Bruce Bowen was really the first 3-and-D player back in the 90s. Gone are the days of an all-around player. There is no longer a need for a player who does everything. Look at players like Kobe Bry…

One of my favorite ridiculous stats. Bruce Bowen had one year where he shot better from 3 than he did on free throws. He was a dreadful shooter, but somehow he taught himself to be passable at this one specific skill, corner 3s.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#109

Post by gfunk911 »

ramoz wrote: post #99
jackschultz wrote: post #81

Stolen bases in baseball is similar to this. In 2023, MLB made two rule changes with stealing being at all time lows (and them thinking fans love stolen bases): 1) Limiting the number of pickoff attempts by pitchers, and 2) Slight enlarging of the bases. Take a look at the jump[0]. It's been interesting to follow some changes teams have made the past two seasons where teams are figuring out how to better time steals…

I don't really understand the comparison. The game changes with the rules. The meta shifts with the analytics. But stealing bases has long been a science. It was something I admired about college level development of players in the 2000's - stealing bases went from fundamental to advanced and well beyond "just let the fastest guys do their thing." UVA's coach had a saying like "every player on this team will be capab…

The comparison IMO is that how baseball is played changed over time as teams optimized, and some of those changes are undesirable from the perspective of an entertainment product. So MLB changed the rules to increase plays at the margin that are on average considered "more exciting."

Every league does this of course, NBA did it just last year with the stealth rule changes around fouls.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#110

Post by gfunk911 »

hardwaregeek wrote: post #89

Thinking Basketball is one of my favorite resources for basketball analysis. He recently made a video debunking myths about the modern game [1]. While yes, there’s far more analytics and knowledge in the game, it hasn’t lead to monotony or poor quality. It’s instead resulted in a Cambrian explosion of tactics, counter tactics, and really diverse team strategies. But the commentary and analysis in mainstream basketbal…

I love the modern game. I just think the pendulum has swung a tiny bit too far toward 3s in the past 3-4 years, that's all. Just a nudge in the other direction.

My ideal would be to try changing 2s and 3s to 3s and 4s. But that will never happen.

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