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On DeepSeek and export controls

darioamodei.com

101–110 of 185 posts

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#101
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely. Chinese companies shouldn't have chips because their government has "committed human rights violations, has behaved aggressively on the world stage". And the US government hasn't?

To say the two are remotely comparable is either insincere or naive. Like I'm not saying the US always acts utterly virtuously, but they aren't running concentration camps and chemically castrating entire ethic groups. They also aren't imprisoning people for speech, which is important when we're discussing who we want controlling AI in the future.

> To say the two are remotely comparable is either insincere or naive. Like I'm not saying the US always acts utterly virtuously, but they aren't running concentration camps and chemically castrating entire ethic groups.

They absolutely did directly and indirectly several times in their history. A few of those times were recently:

> In September 2020, it was revealed that ICE had performed mass hysterectomies on immigrant women in several detention centers, reminiscent of the long-standing US policy of sterilization of black and brown women. 2

> The US currently operates a system of slave labor camps, including at least 54 prison farms involved in agricultural slave labor. Outside of agricultural slavery, Federal Prison Industries operates a multi-billion dollar industry with ~ 52 prison factories , where prisoners produce furniture, clothing, circuit boards, products for the military, computer aided design services, call center support for private companies. 1, 2, 3

> In the present day, ICE (U.S._Immigration_and_Customs_Enforcement), the police tasked with immigration enforcement, operates over 200 prison camps, housing over 31,000 undocumented people deemed "aliens", 20,000 of which have no criminal convictions, in the US system of immigration detention. The camps include forced labor (often with contracts from private companies), poor conditions, lack of rights (since the undocumented aren't considered citizens), and forced deportations, often splitting up families. Detainees are often held for a year without trial, with antiquated court procedures pushing back court dates for months, encouraging many to accept immediate deportation in the hopes of being able to return faster than the court can reach a decision, but forfeiting legal status, in a cruel system of coercion. 1, 2

> During the 2020 coravirus pandemic, it was found that a law that empowered police to arrest those for not social distancing, lead to 80% of those arrested being black and latino.

etc., etc., etc.

https://github.com/dessalines/essays/blob/main/us_atrocities...

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#102

It's shortsighted to believe that export controls are relevant. China will be able to manufacture as good or better chips than the US in the not too distant future anyway.

China only has to attack Taiwan to deny the US of TSMC’s production capacity.

Prediction: they will do this as soon as they see sufficient domestic chip production.

The attempts to inshore fabs to the USA is too little too late.

And it doesn’t matter if Trump defends Taiwan and makes China back down - the fabs will have been bombed to bits.

As it is, trump would probably just do sanctions and tariffs, which - like Russia - China will expect to weather.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#103
post #84

> DeepSeek does not "do for $6M what cost US AI companies billions". I can only speak for Anthropic, but Claude 3.5 Sonnet is a mid-sized model that cost a few $10M's to train (I won't give an exact number). Also, 3.5 Sonnet was not trained in any way that involved a larger or more expensive model (contrary to some rumors). Wow!

^ This is publicly new information, and the 2nd part especially contradicts consequential rumours that had been all-but-cemented in closely-following outsiders' understanding of Sonnet and Anthropic. Completely aside from anything else in this article.

Also, though it's not "new information": "Making AI that is smarter than almost all humans at almost all things [...] is most likely to happen in 2026-2027." continues to sail over everybody's head, not a single comment about it, even to shit on it. People will continue to act as though they are literally blind to this, as though they literally don't see it.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#104
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, in the end, USA is still better than the alternative.

I don't know. Living in a country where being able to shoot people is an absolute, immutable, inalienable right granted by God himself (more so than anything else in the Bill of Rights) but where access to food, shelter, healthcare and education are all expensive privileges subject to the whims of the free market, and where half of the population doesn't even believe viruses are real, and where you don't even need th…

You do not have a right to other people's work. I should not be forced to give you food because you are too lazy to do it yourself. If you do not work, you do not eat, just like Jamestown.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#105
post #25

I like a lot of what Dario writes, but in this case I just can't follow the reasoning. Everything I've picked up about how DeepSeek did what they did (including going a level lower than CUDA to better take advantage of the limited hardware[1], and the balance of techniques used[2]) points to some very smart Chinese engineers having out-smarted US ones (to put it in terms that matter to US folk, because I'm European a…

To be sure, DeepSeek did great work, and this is a bit aside from TFA. But the PTX thing is a bit of meme? What do we think torch.compile and triton and llvm's nvptx backend are doing under the hood? The warp-specialization thing quoted in [1] cites to a _2014_ paper[2] out of Stanford ...

[2]: https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2555243.2555258

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#106

It's shortsighted to believe that export controls are relevant. China will be able to manufacture as good or better chips than the US in the not too distant future anyway.

China only has to attack Taiwan to deny the US of TSMC’s production capacity. Prediction: they will do this as soon as they see sufficient domestic chip production. The attempts to inshore fabs to the USA is too little too late. And it doesn’t matter if Trump defends Taiwan and makes China back down - the fabs will have been bombed to bits. As it is, trump would probably just do sanctions and tariffs, which - like Ru…

[deleted]

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#107
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely. Chinese companies shouldn't have chips because their government has "committed human rights violations, has behaved aggressively on the world stage". And the US government hasn't?

Just wait. By year 2 of Trump 2.0, China is going to be the global good guy that Europe and Latin America make their new best friend.

If Europe and Latin America want to buddy up with the concentration camp gang, I really don't care. We do not need fascists and communists as our partners.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#108
post #96
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely. Chinese companies shouldn't have chips because their government has "committed human rights violations, has behaved aggressively on the world stage". And the US government hasn't?

[flagged]

Do you really think the US is going to come out on top as the "lesser evil" if we start listing all the "bad things" each side has done related to human rights abuses and behaving aggressively on the world stage? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BOBKTmaQ9M

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#109
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, in the end, USA is still better than the alternative.

I don't know. Living in a country where being able to shoot people is an absolute, immutable, inalienable right granted by God himself (more so than anything else in the Bill of Rights) but where access to food, shelter, healthcare and education are all expensive privileges subject to the whims of the free market, and where half of the population doesn't even believe viruses are real, and where you don't even need th…

> Living in a country where being able to shoot people is an absolute, immutable, inalienable right granted by God himself (more so than anything else in the Bill of Rights)...

2A provides access to weapons. It doesn't allow people to murder one another.

> but where access to food, shelter, healthcare and education are all expensive privileges subject to the whims of the free market,...

Article 1 Section 8 doesn't enumerate Congress the power to provide any of those things.

What's more, I beieve the Federal government shouldn't. Rights should only ever be negative unless being a counterparty to positive action taken by the government (e.g., it makes sense to provide public defenders since it is reactionary to the government trying to take away your rights).

Healthcare, education, etc. are better served by the private sector with charity as the supplement for the less fortunate.

> and where you don't even need the popular vote to elect a President (it's just nice to have) because the electoral system is a series of 18th century compromises to keep slavers happy...

The electorial system is designed to prevent tyranny of the majority and is biased towards inaction. This seems better than a pure democracy to me because most government action is bad: inefficient, introduces moral hazard, etc.

In a system of pure democracy, the bottom 51% can vote to tax the top 49%'s income away. Then the next iteration the new bottom 51% can vote the same. Eventually this could lead to purely even distributions. That seems wildly worse for society: all incentive to produce would be void.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#110
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know. Living in a country where being able to shoot people is an absolute, immutable, inalienable right granted by God himself (more so than anything else in the Bill of Rights) but where access to food, shelter, healthcare and education are all expensive privileges subject to the whims of the free market, and where half of the population doesn't even believe viruses are real, and where you don't even need th…

You do not have a right to other people's work. I should not be forced to give you food because you are too lazy to do it yourself. If you do not work, you do not eat, just like Jamestown.

Yes, all the poor are simply lazy, and you yourself have never ever benefited from the collective labor of society.
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