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Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

cneos.jpl.nasa.gov

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Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#101

Post by SubiculumCode »

ddahlen wrote: post #84

I work on the Near Earth Object Surveyor space telescope (NEO Surveyor) writing simulation code which predicts which objects we will see. This one has drummed up a bit of interest due to its (relatively) high chance of impact. I actually spent quite a bit of time yesterday digging through archive images trying trying to see if it was spotted on some previous times it came by the Earth (no luck unfortunately). Since w…

If in 2032 an impact did occur, how much time before that impact would be able to ascertain over 50% probability of impact? hypothetically.

That is, does the certainty increase steadily or non-linearly over time? Does near certainty of an impact occur from measurements taken just minutes before the impact, or hours, days, years?

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#102

Post by slackerIII »

ddahlen wrote: post #84

I work on the Near Earth Object Surveyor space telescope (NEO Surveyor) writing simulation code which predicts which objects we will see. This one has drummed up a bit of interest due to its (relatively) high chance of impact. I actually spent quite a bit of time yesterday digging through archive images trying trying to see if it was spotted on some previous times it came by the Earth (no luck unfortunately). Since w…

Great post, thank you!

Where does the uncertainty (1%) come from? For example, is it more from our ability to precisely determine the orbit based on limited observations, or is it because orbits for objects like this just aren't predictable years out, or something else?

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#104

Post by sharpshadow »

DennisP wrote: post #67
perihelions wrote: post #9

This is not an increase over baseline risk (as its Palermo scale[0] indicates, being a negative number, -0.56). I think there's going to be a crisis of media going forwards, because with the very awesome new telescope[1] that's going online this year, the number of these detections is going to drastically go up. The number of objects isn't going up—they've always been there, we just didn't know—but I think the media…

So you're calling it a "crisis" that people will be better informed of the risk they've always faced? Seems to me we should use that media coverage to build political support for a real asteroid defense system.

This. It’s a crucial step for our civilisation to be able to protect earth from any incoming dangers be it asteroids or Umuamua type objects. There must be a global effort with all countries to build such a system.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#105

Post by jofer »

roenxi wrote: post #21
perihelions wrote: post #9

This is not an increase over baseline risk (as its Palermo scale[0] indicates, being a negative number, -0.56). I think there's going to be a crisis of media going forwards, because with the very awesome new telescope[1] that's going online this year, the number of these detections is going to drastically go up. The number of objects isn't going up—they've always been there, we just didn't know—but I think the media…

HOWEVER this is an excellent time to review https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impact_structures_on_E... in particular the S2 to S8 spherule beds found in South Africa (AKA "the big one(s)" or "we are less than dust in the eyes of the gods"). The universe is a big place with some big rocks in it. There are also some !!fun!! simulations of things like the Vredefort impact on YouTube.

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australasian_strewnfield (debris over 10% to 30% of the Earth's surface from an impact ~788,000 years ago). Smaller, for sure, but very recent and large enough for "nuclear winter" type scenarios.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#108

Post by pfdietz »

barbegal wrote: post #22

I guess the probability of impact won't reach the >50% level until a few months before impact due to variations in earth's orbit and by that point the ability to do anything about it is limited.

> due to variations in earth's orbit

I don't see how this could possibly be correct. Earth's orbit is very precisely known.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#110

Post by pfdietz »

ta1243 wrote: post #42
jonstewart wrote: post #6

If Mt of asteroid impact roughly equates to a nuclear weapon, then this is pretty bad for a metropolitan area but not enough to put a big dent in humanity.

There's a 3 in 4 chance an asteroid hitting the earth will hit water, and of the remaining change about 50/50 it hits a desert or ice sheet (Antarctica, Greenland).

The stripe where this object could hit is mostly at low latitude.
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