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Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

vincentschmalbach.com

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Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#101
post #95
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a question: what's the list of startups fitting the criteria of - after 2008 Great Financial Crisis - actual startup, not spinoff from larger company - financially successful exit - early non-founder employees made a substantial amount of money?

GPT: whatsapp, instagram, airbnb, slack, uber, snap

Openai?

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#102

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

It's so nice to see my homeland is famous for something! :-) Zimbabwe Dollars FTW. I have 500 billion dollars in a cupboard somewhere BTW.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#103

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

I've had one successful exit as an engineer. Made enough for a (very) fancy dinner for two, or a short city break. Just a fun bit of pocket money, essentially.

Founders made more than I'll probably earn in a lifetime.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#104

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

> The only realy reason to join a startup is that you either believe in the "mission" or that you believe it will bring you joy to work in that way.

If the goal is economic security (FU money) then the quickest path is to get a job at a big tech company. This requires engineering skills and also the ability to play the various corporate games (ugh).

For the rest of us there's entrepreneurship and joining startups.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#105
post #73

FWIW on HN circa 2012 when I joined, there were people I thought were biz heroes who posted here and that made the place feel smaller, and that dynamic is gone I think. I’m not sure it can be manufactured again either, in the age of personal brands Plus I think in 2025 people might be too negative and less likely to break the mold socially than in 2012. However I think that’s also an exploitable situation ‘cause it m…

I also joined around 2012, had the same impression as you, but I still have that impression today, just that I stopped seeing anyone as a hero. But I frequently end up coming across comments that were written by people who worked on my favorite childhood PC game/book/website for example, still to this day. /bestcomments is a great place to discover these types of comments, in case someone has missed it: https://news.…

I think by biz heroes I mean people who I believe I can emulate and therefore want to be around more, which creates a feedback loop that makes me excited to start companies— which happened to me. I know they’re still amazing folks here, but is the feedback loop?

With the passage of time I’m not who they want in the big end of that funnel anymore anyway, so maybe I just don’t see it. But the founder class back then had an appeal that they don’t today to me. I’m sure it’s naïveté but I believed people wanted to change the world back then (while making money) and it was inspiring. Now I only believe people are in it for money, which is the opposite of inspiring

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#107
post #93

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

I was the second engineer (series A) at a company that IPO’d at a unicorn valuation. By all rights that’s a great outcome. I made about as much in that exit as I would have if I were just at a FAANG instead

This tracks.

I think the real value employees get is riding the rocketship in their career.

Early engineers often have first dibs on higher level roles, like CTO or director over people that join late.

Your initial grant might not be great, but being director at such a company is huge

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#108

Point 5: even if your startup exits successfully, the math of exits are brutal for employees (even early ones). Between double dipping for investors, accelerated vesting for the c-suite, and taxation intricacies, employees make out much less than they'll think even in good scenarios. Everyone makes 10X less than their head in the food chain: investors -> c-level -> VPs -> directors -> senior staff.

This is why later companies can be better. Either they are public or private but it is clearer what the stock is and could be worth. Best deal is to get actual stock not stock options.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#109

Most engineers figured out that the options/stocks of startups are worthless.

We are now also seeing companies staying private much, much longer. This is tough on the employees who quite often can't offload their equity.

Which makes FAANG + property investing + index pension/401k + other funds etc attractive. Maybe the occasional wsb style risk for fun.
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