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A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

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Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#101

Post by mulmen »

qnleigh wrote: post #89
mulmen wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have they banned horses yet? My money is on never. This technology doesn’t need a ban to succeed. It just needs to be allowed.

Horse accidents aren't a leading cause of death though. Seems like it'll depend on how thoroughly self-driving becomes a thing of the past on its own.

> Horse accidents aren't a leading cause of death though.

Sure, not now. Because cars replaced them.

> Seems like it'll depend on how thoroughly self-driving becomes a thing of the past on its own.

Based on my experience with Waymo if they come to Seattle in the next two years I won’t buy another car.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#102

Post by paganel »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #5
wiz21c wrote: post #3

So one day my car insurance company will tell me: "you have to pay us more because you are driving yourself".

> one day my car insurance company will tell me: "you have to pay us more because you are driving yourself" As it should. You’re objectively higher risk, particularly if you’ve ever been at fault for a crash or gotten a ticket.

They should also ask for more money from sick people when it comes to health insurance, as they’re more prone to getting sick again and again and hence consume resources, after all how many Luigis can there be?

Which is to say that naked capitalism works until it doesn’t, and when it stops working big chances are that it won’t do it gracefully, see how present-day health insurance CEOs are now scared shitless of Big City streets.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#103

Post by imtringued »

tsss wrote: post #9

Does Waymo even drive on the highway? No surprise that there's a reduction in grave injuries if they drive 30 kph max in the inner city.

If you had read the paper you would realize that it is not about the severity of the injuries, i.e. "how grave" they are, but the number of insurance claims, of which there have only been two and the second one involved a human driver running a red light.

It's not just a mere "reduction" as the percentages imply. The number of injuries is almost zero.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#104

Post by JumpCrisscross »

meiraleal wrote: post #80
mulmen wrote: post #56

I rode in a Waymo recently and was amazed at how good it was. It was easily in the top 5 best drivers I have ridden with. Really really impressive. It wasn’t nearly as cautious or timid as I expected it to be. But it also wasn’t reckless. I would describe it as assertive, but I’m sure some people would call it aggressive. It knows the rules and what’s going on around and acts accordingly. This really should be the no…

> The future is bright. We have been there. The internet and then Google, Facebook were the same. Big Tech can't be trusted.

> Big Tech can't be trusted

Trust, trade and mutually-beneficial coëxistence need not go hand in hand.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#105

Post by mstade »

mulmen wrote: post #56

I rode in a Waymo recently and was amazed at how good it was. It was easily in the top 5 best drivers I have ridden with. Really really impressive. It wasn’t nearly as cautious or timid as I expected it to be. But it also wasn’t reckless. I would describe it as assertive, but I’m sure some people would call it aggressive. It knows the rules and what’s going on around and acts accordingly. This really should be the no…

I was just in CA for a few weeks and drove in SF quite a bit. There are Waymo cars everywhere and from the perspective of a driver I was more than a little cautious driving behind or next to one of them.

I would rate their driving as quite good, but their signaling of intent was terrible. More than once did I see them use turn signals, only to never actually turn. Turn the signals on, then off again, then on again, eventually turn perhaps but not always.

Humans are terrible at this too, but we also use more subtle and inadvertent signals like the slight movement to the line telling me they're likely about to switch lanes, only to see the signal go on halfway into it. Those subtle signals are easier to pick up on than a robot driving more or less perfectly straight while signaling, turning of signals, turning them back on again, and so on. Also super creepy with empty driver seats, and no one responsible to make eye contact with.

But the actual driving wasn't bad, as it turns out. Never had or saw a near miss, anything reckless or otherwise remarkable. I can see myself getting used to this tech and I would love for it to succeed, because man driving for anything but fun really sucks.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#106

Post by mulmen »

rglullis wrote: post #86
mulmen wrote: post #56

I rode in a Waymo recently and was amazed at how good it was. It was easily in the top 5 best drivers I have ridden with. Really really impressive. It wasn’t nearly as cautious or timid as I expected it to be. But it also wasn’t reckless. I would describe it as assertive, but I’m sure some people would call it aggressive. It knows the rules and what’s going on around and acts accordingly. This really should be the no…

The whole thing with self-driving cars is that it feels like the story of NASA's space pen. All this money being poured into a technology that would not be needed if the richest country in the world had the common sense of simply getting rid of its car dependency and developed proper public transit infrastructure.

Nobody says it has to be a car form factor. It can be a self driving van or shuttle or bus.

Last mile is a nightmare with all public transit. With the low population density of the US we need a lot of small vehicles to feed transit hubs.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#108

Post by mstade »

Brian_K_White wrote: post #93

I just heard someone mention in a podcast how as a cyclist they need to make eye contact with drivers to be safe, and there is no one to make eye contact with. Waymo would say "don't worry, it sees you" and maybe the numbers even show they do some percentage more than the average human driver, but that still does not reproduce the self-help aspect of you looking at a driver until you see that that driver sees you. I…

This makes a lot of sense, also for pedestrians and other drivers. Having seen these things live in action, it creeped me out to see an empty drivers seat.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#109

Post by lucianbr »

guappa wrote: post #44
wiz21c wrote: post #3

So one day my car insurance company will tell me: "you have to pay us more because you are driving yourself".

Yes, and of course you must pay because the autopilot doesn't work when there's snow or rain or sun on the horizon or it's too dark, or the volcano near you is throwing ash and there's wind so you're now in a sandstorm, or wind is carrying sand from the sahara all over the mediterranean to you. (all of these regularly happen all in the same place)

What's the place?

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#110

Post by notahacker »

mulmen wrote: post #39
amelius wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It seems like they compared apples to apples. Which make that an exciting result! I'd want to compare to our best drivers (e.g. ambulance drivers), not average drivers.

> I'd want to compare to our best drivers (e.g. ambulance drivers), not average drivers. Why? As long as it is better than the median driver the roads are safer.

> Why? As long as it is better than the median driver the roads are safer.

The intent is to increase miles driven, and the drivers a commercial service can be expected to replace first are professionals, not "median drivers". In practice accident stats are also benchmarked against mean drivers in a world in which serious accidents disproportionately involve inadequate drivers (or conditions Waymo does not deploy in)

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