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Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

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Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#101

Post by thodin »

ivan_gammel wrote: post #92
dismalaf wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's clear based on the exchange rate. You absolutely can't trust whatever data they put out there, but you can see based on their behaviour. I mean, they're literally asking North Korea and Iran for help, trading oil and gas directly... There's no advantage for them to have the Ruble so weak because they absolutely want to import Chinese and Western products, namely technology, to fund their war machine. Even agains…

You make wrong assumptions about the exchange rate. I suggest you learn more about Russian economy, rather than speculate. The fact is, they do not target exchange rates in their policy, only inflation. Their trade balance with China is positive (unlike USA), so yuan reserves are growing and they have no problem to buy Chinese goods. The weakness of ruble has nothing to do with it.

The exchange rate is now directly controlled by the Central bank. Trade with China is very problematic - sometimes it takes several months to complete a single transaction.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#102

Post by ivan_gammel »

thodin wrote: post #101
ivan_gammel wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make wrong assumptions about the exchange rate. I suggest you learn more about Russian economy, rather than speculate. The fact is, they do not target exchange rates in their policy, only inflation. Their trade balance with China is positive (unlike USA), so yuan reserves are growing and they have no problem to buy Chinese goods. The weakness of ruble has nothing to do with it.

The exchange rate is now directly controlled by the Central bank. Trade with China is very problematic - sometimes it takes several months to complete a single transaction.

> The exchange rate is now directly controlled by the Central bank.

This is false. I don’t know where you have got this, when all information is public and easily available. Here’s how the official exchange rate us determined:

https://cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/162004/metod_6290-u.pdf

They just collect the data on OTC transactions from banks. The only way for Russian central bank to influence the exchange rate is to sell/buy and they do it only to stabilize the market when volatility is high. They do not have exchange rate targets and do not enforce specific rates in transactions.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#103

Post by MrHamburger »

tim333 wrote: post #98
lawn wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All Russia have to do is back away you know. What? They don't want to? Then maybe we can just forget about the genocide, give Russia time to rebuild their forces and recover their economy, so they can repeat the process in a couple of years? (While allowing them to continue their genocide on occupied territory. But at least we don't have to read about it!)

The things a mess though. It might be better to have some sort of freeze and then figure something to stop them repeating the process.

Russia has 19th century imperial mindset. They will use cease fire to rearm and repeat the process. Only way how to stop them is either change of the government (invasion, coup) or giving Ukraine nuclear weapons, either directly or indirectly through membership in NATO.

Anything else is about as worthless as "Peace for our time" from Munich 1938.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#104

Post by protomolecule »

thodin wrote: post #100
protomolecule wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>last SSJ-100 ever produced Yes, of course. The version of SSJ-100 with Russian-made engines and other systems is called SJ-100. [0] https://www.uacrussia.ru/ru/aircraft/lineup/civil/superjet-1...

There is no such thing as an SSJ-100 with Russian-made engines, period. Airlines cannot buy them, and you cannot fly them. Even the MC-21 is slightly more realistic, but it is also not available to any airline. We have been hearing this never-ending story of "aircraft will be available in 2 years" for a very long time. :)

SJ-100 with PD-8 already flew in 2023[0], after a year of fixing engine problems, it is about to fly again.

[0] https://viam.ru/news/8822

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#105

Post by tehjoker »

lawn wrote: post #74
tehjoker wrote: post #54

Why don't we just do a peace deal? Over a million have died over nothing so far.

All Russia have to do is back away you know. What? They don't want to? Then maybe we can just forget about the genocide, give Russia time to rebuild their forces and recover their economy, so they can repeat the process in a couple of years? (While allowing them to continue their genocide on occupied territory. But at least we don't have to read about it!)

maybe the us and nato should back away? at least ukraine is on russias border wtf are we doing there

i do object to your use of the word "genocide" when there is a literal U.S. backed genocide occurring right now in gaza

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#106

Post by throwaway290 »

ivan_gammel wrote: post #75
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> country won't fail, but it will further struggle because of the decisions made my leadership It’s removing itself as a conventional threat to Europe for generations to come. And as much as Beijing is a rival to Washington, they’re rational in a way Moscow is not. Russia as a Chinese suzerainty is probably a better world configuration than Russia as a sovereign regional power. > find this general attitude of "Russia…

> It’s removing itself as a conventional threat to Europe for generations to come How? Surely not in military sense. If anything, they gained experience of modern drone warfare and tested and refined their technology.

Taking into account relative sizes of the invaded and invading country, Russian government showed themselves a complete laughing stock. And this is without involvement of any NATO troops by the way.

Any limited success they had before was in what can't be called a conventional confrontation, like separatist movements.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#107

Post by aguaviva »

ivan_gammel wrote: post #72
dismalaf wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their GDP is growing faster that all other major Western Economies Growth that depends entirely on government spending can only last so long... First you blow all your reserves, then if/when you start printing money and hyperinflation kicks in even if the nominal GDP in the domestic currency appears to be rising, real GDP falls fast. Because Russia's essentially a petro-state, they had sizable cash reserves with wh…

>Now you can see with the price of the Ruble that they've run out of the will to prop it up using foreign reserves (probably running low on foreign currency) It’s not that simple. I don’t think Russia is low on foreign currencies. Due to sanctions and effects of war spending Russian economy doesn’t behave as a normal one. Recession is going to happen, sure, because the current high demand on domestic market is matche…

I don’t think Russia is low on foreign currencies.

It's definitely "low" on the $327B or so in its sovereign foreign assets that were seized Brussels shortly after the 2022 invasion -- apparently about half its total (of $600+).

The seizure obviously didn't kill the economy, but it would be surprising if it didn't set off a chain of effects within the Russian economy. We may be seeing that now in the form of the precipitous rise in the benchmark interest (to 21 percent).

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#108

Post by ivan_gammel »

aguaviva wrote: post #107
ivan_gammel wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Now you can see with the price of the Ruble that they've run out of the will to prop it up using foreign reserves (probably running low on foreign currency) It’s not that simple. I don’t think Russia is low on foreign currencies. Due to sanctions and effects of war spending Russian economy doesn’t behave as a normal one. Recession is going to happen, sure, because the current high demand on domestic market is matche…

I don’t think Russia is low on foreign currencies. It's definitely "low" on the $327B or so in its sovereign foreign assets that were seized Brussels shortly after the 2022 invasion -- apparently about half its total (of $600+). The seizure obviously didn't kill the economy, but it would be surprising if it didn't set off a chain of effects within the Russian economy. We may be seeing that now in the form of the prec…

The rise of the interest rates is not related to seizure of foreign assets.

It’s macroeconomic basics: government is spending a lot, domestic demand increases and doesn’t match the supply, which cannot be balanced by imports (which would require spending of foreign reserves). The economy is gradually overheating, inflation is rising, so the central bank attempts to control it, because its only target is the inflation. That’s as simple as that.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#109

Post by jhugo »

sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #45
jhugo wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm, I think you may have just not been paying attention? There was the Superjet that crashed and burned at Lukhovitsy just a few months ago, the A320 that ran out of fuel and landed in the field near Novosibirsk a year ago, the AN26 that crashed in 2021, the Superjet that crashed and burned at Moscow in 2019…

I forgot about the incident at Lukhovitsy - that was w/o passengers. 2019/2021 incidents are completely out of scope of "recent years".

And another Superjet, arriving at Antalya from Sochi, yesterday.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#110

Post by lawn »

tehjoker wrote: post #105
lawn wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All Russia have to do is back away you know. What? They don't want to? Then maybe we can just forget about the genocide, give Russia time to rebuild their forces and recover their economy, so they can repeat the process in a couple of years? (While allowing them to continue their genocide on occupied territory. But at least we don't have to read about it!)

maybe the us and nato should back away? at least ukraine is on russias border wtf are we doing there i do object to your use of the word "genocide" when there is a literal U.S. backed genocide occurring right now in gaza

Why would one genocide excuse another? I just don't get it.

You just want to close your eyes to the Russian genocide.

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