Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.
[flagged]
Trump wins presidency for second time
101–110 of 1001 posts
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#102As an American who grew from nothing, served in the military, and expanded in my career - I find the concerns for Democracy comical. Most of you do not understand the type of people that built and fought for democracy. There is no real fear amongst these same type of people in modern America.
Other high ranking military officers that have worked closely with Trump disagree. I might be inclined to believe them over you, unless you've also worked with Trump? Or are you just someone that he would call a 'sucker'?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/us/politics/john-kelly-tr...
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#103Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.
The polls all said it was 50/50. They seem to be very accurate so far.
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#104Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.
If you look at the polls, they were incredibly close. This result is totally consistent with the polls, given the margin of error.
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#105Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.
I checked 538 before the election and they had Trump winning more often than not, but very close.
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#106Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.
Yes, polls often tend to privilege the privileged, Harris voters skewed greatly towards higher average incomes and college education. And also, according to an exit poll, that the majority of Trump's voters decided to vote for him within the past week. It's generally been the case that populist politicians are underestimated by polling because they can't control for these factors.
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#107It's interesting how bad the democrats seem to be at the game of winning elections. They continuously seem to pick bad candidates and poor strategies resulting in them losing the election when they seem to have had the general conditions for winning. This time, the elephant in the room is of course the late ousting of Joe Biden, but there were similar issues that (in hindsight at least) were obvious in the Clinton 20…
They regularly win presidential elections by the most obvious definition, the popular vote, but lose them on the EC, which is what actually counts.
The fact remains that more Americans vote Democratic than vote Republican, those votes are just badly distributed for the EC system.
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#108My theory: people are just hacked off that life is getting worse for most people while billionaires get richer and richer. Every disaster the wealthy get handouts while the poor have to pay for them. Government can no longer afford anything because all of its assets have been sold and rented back at a profit. I don’t think either campaign made any difference to the outcome of this election at all. In conclusion it mi…
And yet the US economy is doing great, much better than most developed countries, and most of those countries are not going off the rails to quite the same extent.
Inflation is probably relevant, since even though it's down by a lot, the sticker shock so to speak lingers for a while.
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#109This is weird because the information I was getting was that Harris was leading the opinion polls and the Trump supporters were dropping him at the last minute. Now this feels like a rigged election.
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#110Well, we gonna have 4 years of amazing memes.
[flagged]