Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

China's manufacturers are going broke

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

101–110 of 229 posts

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#101

Post by aquamar2 »

maxglute wrote: post #33

China's manufactures finding the winners. This is the system working as intended - create many producers in xyz sector via subsidies, hardcore (involution) competition from 1000s in different provinces innovate manufacturing to bare margins, losers go out of business/ get bought up by better competitors and consolidate like _intended_ outcome of other PRC industrial policy. TLDR Set up competitive environment to forc…

Still doesn't work.

1.) Internal consumer demand for China has collapsed, due to real estate debt overhang, local government debt overhang, increasing job loss, and incoming and increasing college graduates. It's estimated that 80% of this year's current graduates are jobless.

2.) External demand for China has been decreasing, 3.5T total export in 2022, only 3.3T in 2023. probably below 3T this year. Due to geopolitical factors such as China allying with Russia, and increasing tariffs from every other country due to overproduction/overexport from China.

3.) EV (at 36B in 2023) is only 1% of value of all Chinese export (3.7T). Not going to rescue the Chinese economy at all. On top of that, only BYD is capable/making some profit, while every other Chinese EV is going to shut down in the next 5 years.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#102

Post by tchalla »

alephnerd wrote: post #40
philipov wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those places are Vietnam and Africa, and it's already happening.

In VN, Chinese manufacturers tend to compete directly with SK and JP FDI, so the RoI isn't too hot, and Chinese manufacturers face the same hurdles American manufacturers faced when entering China (eg. Forced JVs, ToTs, etc)

WAUTA?

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#104

Post by aquamar2 »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #74
missedthecue wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I have been coming more around to Chinese manufactured goods. It used to be low-end crap 30 years ago, but they are market leaders in many sectors today and probably even more tomorrow. I recently drove a Chinese (ICE) SUV for the first time and was blown away by the fit, finish, and price.

I think they are referencing various food scandals that rocked trust of Chinese food production in china (esp. for babies).

lots of other scandals, not just food

1.) recent 2024 huge scandal regarding oil container trucks swapping out cooking oil with cancerous industry oil without cleaning the tank. the trucks ended up covering up their tank with tarp so people can't see what kind of oil these trucks are carrying.

2.) videos of Chinese EVs just simultaneously combusting in the streets while driven or parked

3.) toxic chemicals found on Temu/Shien clothes, found by South Korea and US

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#105

Post by AtlasBarfed »

486sx33 wrote: post #62

It’s pretty simple, Chinese companies need to lower Chinese wages, reduce costs, reduce profit expectations, provide lower cost shipping to ports, guarantee the quality of their product once it arrives in North America not pay when it leaves the factory. We want $1 products again at dollar tree (not $1.25 tree), and better quality for less money. Otherwise we will just make the stuff in the USA ourselves. One day we…

[flagged]

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#106

Post by Gibbon1 »

alephnerd wrote: post #26
derefr wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China was actually trying to heavily establish offshoring in the Philippines—but that has seemingly dried up with the increasing South China Sea tensions.

Same with India before 2020 - China used to be India's largest FDI partner before the Galwan crisis. After that, the Indian government "persuaded" Chinese players to sell off their Indian assets to Indian, Taiwanese, Korean, Japanese, and American players instead. 4 years later, the GlobalTimes - which was extremely provocative against India - has started pushing out content arguing that India should begin reopening…

I swear a lot of wars get started by guys like Xi who after seizing power internally try to seize power externally and it often ends really really badly for the host country.

Seriously, the leader of Germany in the 1930's, Stalin, Putin, Saddam Hussein, now Xi. All seized power domestically and then couldn't help themselves when it came to neighboring countries.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#107

Post by sandspar »

aquamar2 wrote: post #104
mensetmanusman wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they are referencing various food scandals that rocked trust of Chinese food production in china (esp. for babies).

lots of other scandals, not just food 1.) recent 2024 huge scandal regarding oil container trucks swapping out cooking oil with cancerous industry oil without cleaning the tank. the trucks ended up covering up their tank with tarp so people can't see what kind of oil these trucks are carrying. 2.) videos of Chinese EVs just simultaneously combusting in the streets while driven or parked 3.) toxic chemicals found on T…

Great, now do scandals in the US. The Chinese internet was very interested in the Ohio train derailment, for example.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#108

Post by luuurker »

ein0p wrote: post #99
BobbyJo wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Confused about what point you're attempting to make here? Political conflict with a trade partner obviously leads to reduced trade, no matter the parties involved. What part of that statement are you taking issue with?

> Looks like militarism and imperialism are not compatible at that crazy new 21th century world Your faux confusion isn't really impressing anyone. Is the US, the most militarist and imperialist nation in the world by far at the moment, "compatible" with the "crazy new 21st century world"? I've also yet to see any practical examples of Chinese militarism or imperialism. I keep hearing that it's going to start happeni…

You've pointed out what the US is doing. That's good, but you're clearly biased, so let me tell you two things that China is doing that is contributing for that instability you've mentioned: claims in the south china sea that no country would accept if it was done to them and a major naval build up.

You need two to tango and both the US and China are dancing right now. Anyone only blaming one side need to stop for a second, take their US or China tinted glasses, and look again at the problem.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#109

Post by para_parolu »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #106
alephnerd wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same with India before 2020 - China used to be India's largest FDI partner before the Galwan crisis. After that, the Indian government "persuaded" Chinese players to sell off their Indian assets to Indian, Taiwanese, Korean, Japanese, and American players instead. 4 years later, the GlobalTimes - which was extremely provocative against India - has started pushing out content arguing that India should begin reopening…

I swear a lot of wars get started by guys like Xi who after seizing power internally try to seize power externally and it often ends really really badly for the host country. Seriously, the leader of Germany in the 1930's, Stalin, Putin, Saddam Hussein, now Xi. All seized power domestically and then couldn't help themselves when it came to neighboring countries.

Obviously this is heated topic, but did it ends really bad for USSR under Stalin rule (until his death)? I mean it was bad for many citizens but other areas were actually ok-ish considering war destructions.

I’m not trying to make point about Stalin. Just trying to find if this is really a rule, but my historical knowledge is pretty limited. Intuitively I feel any overpowered political entity end up like shit. But interesting to see real data.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#110

Post by sandspar »

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #105
486sx33 wrote: post #62

It’s pretty simple, Chinese companies need to lower Chinese wages, reduce costs, reduce profit expectations, provide lower cost shipping to ports, guarantee the quality of their product once it arrives in North America not pay when it leaves the factory. We want $1 products again at dollar tree (not $1.25 tree), and better quality for less money. Otherwise we will just make the stuff in the USA ourselves. One day we…

[flagged]

Judging from your post alone, you seem to have started with a conclusion ("China will collapse") and sought out evidence that will support your prejudgment. Also, the statistics you cite are less sophisticated than the statistics you'd find on a rag like CNN, so it's not even apparent whether you've done any serious research.
Post reply on HN