Live data from Hacker News

UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

greshm.org

101–110 of 141 posts

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#101
post #22
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We want to guarantee for every human on the planet the right to food, water, shelter, health care, and education. Giving everyone enough money to buy all those things themselves is one way to do it. Raising funds (taxes) and then providing those services for free is another way. It doesn’t really matter which way. What matters is that we agree on that goal and find some way to achieve it. Right now we have a system w…

We want to guarantee for every human on the planet the right to food, water, shelter, health care, and education. ... What matters is that we agree on that goal and find some way to achieve it. Honestly, I don't. First, perhaps it's small minded but I don't really feel responsible for every human on the planet, or even a significant percentage. Second, the value, even to the end recipient, of vast majority of educati…

Part of the problem is that if people don't have access to those things then they don't have much incentive to support the government or things like property rights.

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#102
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UBI is not at all based in Marxism. The idea is older than Marxism and almost entirely unrelated to it. That's probably why you never see it mentioned.

My point isn't that Marx invented the idea of a UBI, I don't actually recall him specifically writing about the concept. My point is that the idea of a UBI is rooted in very much the same arguments as what Marx wrote so much about.

"These are my principles. If you don't like them, well, I have others." -- Marx

BI is not for work, it's for when there is not enough opportunity for work that is productive enough to both better the worker measurably plus provide a return for the master.

Regardless of whether it's a shrinking economy everywhere or just one of the selected demographics or career fields which opportunity can be found receding from, or even "just" creeping credentialization with its growing exclusionary effect.

Plus what if there was never enough opportunity to begin with in one way or another?

What BI is really for is so that nobody ends up with absolutely nothing. On a regular basis while the rest of the world has descended into a situation where it's not enough to be fully out of debt and ahead of the game quite well at any one point. Not that many decades ago this had been enough to gain a secure enough foothold along the path to upward economic mobility. The need for cash outlays on a monthly basis has skyrocketed, just to be able to participate in the same society as those millions having only barely-productive jobs. And the threshold between productive vs barely-productive can be a faster-moving goalpost that can provide a distorting illusion to "smart" people no different than anybody else.

A country can't even afford the most minimal "welfare" payouts to a small minority of the most disenfranchised citizens if the country itself is a "poor" country in a serious way that would need to be remedied beforehand. But beyond a certain point any country that was successful as a whole to a certain extent would be able to afford to fix it at least for a minimally significant portion of citizens whom it would help the most. And the most detrimental effect it could have on the overall economy would naturally be minimally significant. And that's the cost for a place that is not a rich country at all and can barely afford anything like this. Some people are just better at math than others.

In a truly rich country you have overwhelming resources compared to that, so you can draw the line where a lot more significant percentage of citizens can be kept away from the zero mark. How rich are you capable of being anyway?

There's not much difference between now and over 50 years ago when the continuous devaluation of currency was commenced. Other than scale. Back then only a small minority of citizens was left with absolutely nothing on a regular basis whether they had a job or not and whether that job was nearly as financially beneficial to others more so than the worker. A handful of people would be using food stamps at the supermarket, now it's every single cashier multiple times per hour.

People paying the workers are so heavily in debt now it can't work the same any more, and the workers themselves are even worse off at the same jobs.

But it's the same system, only the balance of wealth has changed and the buffer that has been increasingly absorbed is the citizen's resource level needed to avoid being pushed to zero by ever-more-prevailing forces.

Now no matter how you do the math, it's not a small minority of the most opportunity-denied citizens who need something on a regular basis to keep from going to zero. It's getting to be a serious majority who are increasingly at risk and the sooner something is done about it the better since it could take quite a while to take effect and the first salvo might not have enough smart people making the decisions.

UBI is not some new concept, it's just regular BI all grown up since it seems like everybody is at risk now, no differently than only the worst-off were facing before so much of a country's wealth had been extracted from the citizens to who knows where. It took a while but it's just about squeezed dry.

A valid argument against UBI is that everybody doesn't actually need it yet, but you've got to remember that for things to continue trending in the direction having the greatest financial momentum, more people will be needing it if the true beneficiaries (rent-seekers) are to continue experiencing the growth prospects they have in mind.

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#103
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There won't be the big UBI day, where we make the big switch globally. It's a creeping expansion of social benefits and transfer payments and an easing of work conditions I agree, in the sense that I think UBI proponents would do better to lobby for that than a big, deus-ex-machina version of UBI. But I don't see it happening "naturally", without a lot of political effort.

I do see it happening naturally; the very idea that an UBI idea is floating around is a product of the wealth and automation we enjoy. It's a realization that sets in on a broad front, from bullshit jobs, to new generations of products that are not improving much or even regressing, environmental concerns that discourage producing more, massive government budgets squandered ("why not give it to the people who need it…

Maybe things are different where you live, but it seems like the opposite is happening here (the UK). The State Pension (UBI for old people) is getting further restricted. At least anecdotally, it seems like it's getting harder to claim benefits like Disability Living Allowance or Personal Independence Payments. We introduced additional caps on benefit payments in 2013 and again in 2017. Our new government doesn't show any obvious sign of reversing the trend, and I don't see any popular movement to encourage them to.

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#104
post #81
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the current de facto, whatever is considered 'normal' in whichever country you currently reside and work, was not piloted or effectively tested I understand your point and directly disagree with its main part: the move from a family-run farm to a shift-based employment happened before I was born so I did inherit it but it was in fact piloted, tried on small scale, and organic at first.

Nah, they just threw bodies at the problem - shifts be damned. In the US people were working most if not all days of the week. We’re lucky we got where we are now with a 5 day work week brought about by union pressure.

> We’re lucky we got where we are now with a 5 day work week brought about by union pressure.

This is not backed up by any source I can find. Nearly every source says that the 5 day week was invented by unions in the 1800s, popularized by Henry Ford at the Ford motor company due to measurable improvements to productivity, and made law in the 1930s (in the US) to attempt to counter wide-spread unemployment during the Great Depression. Union pressure is not mentioned anywhere, and honestly doesn't make any sense given that unions were not particularly powerful in those time periods.

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#105

I think people are beginning to see work as a sucker's game. The assets you hold are much more important. You can bust your ass and get a nice little startup exit -- and then look around at what real estate this massive windfall will buy you, only to realize that it's all gone up in price by the same amount. It would have been better to have bought a house, kept the easy job, and gone home at 4:30 each day. People se…

> It would have been better to have bought a house, kept the easy job, and gone home at 4:30 each day. People see this. They see that wealth is handed out, arbitrarily, to the people who are connected to the issuance of currency and the banking system. That homeowners make more in a year from asset appreciation than well paid engineers do. This is an oversimplification naturally but the gist of it is spot on. Based o…

> Based on this dynamic, you should absolutely buy a 2nd home before the first is paid off, assume things continue as they have been so you can contribute to and benefit from rising prices everywhere.

2008 showed that to be a very unsafe assumption.

Much more generally: Think in terms of supply and demand. If nobody is going to work any more, then the price of work goes way up. So does the price of things that work produces.

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#106
post #91
post #13

It seems people forget the most obvious thing: A government powerful enough to give everybody a salary is powerful enough to REMOVE everybody's salary. It is also a monopoly of power. That already happened: In communist Russia if you were not a good communist (you believed communism was a crap system) it meant no salary for you, a shitty status or being sent to prison or forced labor. If your children, or any family…

This comment suggests your views are heavily biased by capital owned/controlled western media. Here's a different take, with modern China as an example: https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2024/07/24/chinas-thi...

Your answer to "capitalist owned/controlled western media" is China's third plenum? You think that's going to be less biased?

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#107

The article revolves around the responses of Noah Smith but it is my opinion that Noah is not really a genuine actor. Noah to me just represents the system (as opposed to non-system [0]). His role is not to make radical conclusions but simply to provide a counter reactionary voice for the neo liberal order. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-system_opposition

What would a non-system actor look like? Can you give some examples?

I have read through your comments until 2018. I think you just need to follow through on your instincts.

As to why the situation is not clear or why the answers are not easy to present:

"I’m of the opinion that no one in power wants to see people having good, honest, political discourse." https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29533670

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#108
post #28

From the post... > the key insight that the Noah Smiths of the world seem to be missing is that, in today’s world, we artificially elevate labor demand to keep people employed. To me one learning of COVID and lockdowns is that we're fully capable of meeting all our basic needs with less than 20% of the workforce (which sadly tends also tends to be the lowest paid). In short we don't need everyone to be working for fo…

Well, what I think we learned from COVID is that a bunch of the jobs that we think of as "bullshit" are really important. Yeah, critical-care nurses are important, we saw that, but we found out that grocery store workers are pretty critical, too. And truck drivers.

For that matter, I was at work a bit ago, using the restroom, and this janitor guy came in and started refilling the toilet paper rolls in the stalls. And it struck me that his job was really important. I don't want to do his job, but I absolutely don't want to work somewhere where nobody does it...

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#109
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do see it happening naturally; the very idea that an UBI idea is floating around is a product of the wealth and automation we enjoy. It's a realization that sets in on a broad front, from bullshit jobs, to new generations of products that are not improving much or even regressing, environmental concerns that discourage producing more, massive government budgets squandered ("why not give it to the people who need it…

Maybe things are different where you live, but it seems like the opposite is happening here (the UK). The State Pension (UBI for old people) is getting further restricted. At least anecdotally, it seems like it's getting harder to claim benefits like Disability Living Allowance or Personal Independence Payments. We introduced additional caps on benefit payments in 2013 and again in 2017. Our new government doesn't sh…

All right, there are certainly other major forces affecting western societies and various scenarios could play out in the future. Let's put our weight behind the movements that would lead to some positive outcomes...

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#110

The author seems to effectively argue for UBI as a solution to bullshit jobs. People waste a lot of time today in jobs that produce no real value, instead the government should pay people a similar wage to not do those jobs. > There is no such thing as a UBI trial. There is no such thing as a UBI pilot program. Instead, there are cash transfer experiments being branded as UBI. More strange to me, the author includes…

Snake oil is snake oil, but what if the economy is already upended?

Plus after all recommended remedies have been tried, the only possible solution is to implement something that is not recommended.

You're going to need a different kind of oil . . .

Not my downvote btw, corrective upvote actually, you're making a lot of sense all over the place, along with many others.

Post reply on HN