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Batteries: How cheap can they get?

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Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#101

Post by jvanderbot »

lazide wrote: post #23
jvanderbot wrote: post #17

I would love a 5-20kwh battery backup in my home, I even have a place for it. But when I called my local solar/battery installer they said that it was illegal to install grid-charged battery backups in home. I live in Minnesota. They even told me the power from a hypothetical solar rig is sold to the grid utility, not stored, and they give a discount on future winter rates as payment. This seems like a lousy deal.

Keep in mind, they also might be lying.

This is totally reasonable. I can't find any confirmation of this anywhere.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#102

Post by eichin »

kolinko wrote: post #85
dgacmu wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over provision the panels by a good margin and have them at a more southerly angle (for northern hemisphere). You can play around on nrel pvwatts to see what configuration produces the most even expected monthly output: https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/pvwatts.php Most solar charge controllers allow a certain amount of PV overprovisioning.

In central/northern Europe in january solar goves 10% of the output of summer, and you need 3-4x power to heat compared to cooling down in summer.

It is often surprising that most of the US is south of most of Europe (the common reference is that Chicago and Rome are both 42N. The jet stream complicates the effect on overall climate, but latitude is pretty much the only thing that matters for solar power.)

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#103

Post by DaoVeles »

worstspotgain wrote: post #38

As a layperson, the first thing the title made me think of is "How safe can they get?" Let RESCI be the Risk of Explosion/Surge/Combustion/Inhalation. Here are some measures that are interesting to me that I can't really approximate when evaluating products: - Incremental RESCI when buying from the cheapest 25% of vendors - Incremental RESCI when drawing from the product population that shouldn't have passed QA - Inc…

With a lot of new chemistry the risk of fire is greatly reduced. It seems to be an issue mostly with lithium based systems. Things like Iron or sodium based are much safer, energy density is also lower because of this but it is a reasonable trade off. Also tend to have much greater life time charge cycles. Potential to go tens of thousands of cycles rather than just a thousand or so.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#104

Post by gorgoiler »

bee_rider wrote: post #47
gorgoiler wrote: post #3

What level of subsidy do we give to batteries?

Surely it depends on what country you live in. Battery subsidies are mostly local at least. How do we even calculate the subsidy paid to fossil fuel companies by letting them externalize the cost of their mess onto the planet? Oh well that’s for young people and future generations to care about!

Thanks for fleshing out my quickly written question. I didn’t really mean anything by it, just that I think it’s an important factor that’s overlooked in the linked article.

The most useful idea to think about here, for me, is not what the raw market of economics batteries might be. Rather, the societal good that there would be if the state stepped in and just made batteries infinitesimally cheap for everyone.

The state provides a lot of things that lubricate society: just as they send electricity to our homes, provide a central bank for the economy, schools for our children, and courts to mete out justice — so too could they potentially ensure every citizen has X number of 18650 cells (or future equivalent) available to them to use as they see fit.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#105

Post by sanxiyn »

bee_rider wrote: post #47
gorgoiler wrote: post #3

What level of subsidy do we give to batteries?

Surely it depends on what country you live in. Battery subsidies are mostly local at least. How do we even calculate the subsidy paid to fossil fuel companies by letting them externalize the cost of their mess onto the planet? Oh well that’s for young people and future generations to care about!

> How do we even calculate the subsidy paid to fossil fuel companies by letting them externalize the cost of their mess onto the planet?

I know this was rhetorical, but the standard method in the literature is Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium (2014).

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA10217

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#106

Post by kccqzy »

jvanderbot wrote: post #17

I would love a 5-20kwh battery backup in my home, I even have a place for it. But when I called my local solar/battery installer they said that it was illegal to install grid-charged battery backups in home. I live in Minnesota. They even told me the power from a hypothetical solar rig is sold to the grid utility, not stored, and they give a discount on future winter rates as payment. This seems like a lousy deal.

You might as well just buy an electric vehicle with V2L or V2H functionality, and then add a generator outlet to your electric panel.

The added benefit is that well, it's a battery strapped to a car. So if you have an extended power outage, you simply drive your car to a charger elsewhere and come back with a full charge. I'm sure Minnesota wouldn't be stupid enough to outlaw EV charging.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#107

Post by Aurornis »

duffpkg wrote: post #19

Lifepo4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries for the home are pretty cheap as of today. Power storage for residential use in a 48v metal rackable linkable system with battery management system (BMS) is $89/kwh shipped/duty paid from reputable chinese suppliers CATL/Seplos etc. You have to wait for sea shipping, add $30/kwh if you want to buy it in the US today. From the same suppliers sodium batteries are currently $13…

I’ve followed the super cheap Chinese battery options for a while. It’s amazing how cheap they can be, but at the same time the number of early failure stories is alarmingly high. Getting a warranty exchange is hit or miss.

It feels a lot like gambling. You might get one that works for a thousand cycles without issues. You might get one that fails after a week. You might be able to get a warranty replacement, or you might spend hours every week trying to make progress on a warranty claim without any luck.

You’re right that there’s a lot of opportunity if you’re willing to buy used panels, Chinese batteries, and do all of your own work. However, the cost of equipment is falling while the costs of labor are rising, which is why professionally installed systems are still expensive.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#108

Post by Aurornis »

blacksmith_tb wrote: post #58
duffpkg wrote: post #19

Lifepo4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries for the home are pretty cheap as of today. Power storage for residential use in a 48v metal rackable linkable system with battery management system (BMS) is $89/kwh shipped/duty paid from reputable chinese suppliers CATL/Seplos etc. You have to wait for sea shipping, add $30/kwh if you want to buy it in the US today. From the same suppliers sodium batteries are currently $13…

Sounds great, but are there actual businesses who will come to your home and do an install, or do you need to to become a mad-scientist electrician and DIY? I got quotes on getting an LG system a few years ago and it was 4X these prices (also for me a problem is that my 'ancient' panels from 2013 use a single inverter instead of microinverters, so if I touch the system I have to replace it all). I keep hoping there w…

> but are there actual businesses who will come to your home and do an install, or do you need to to become a mad-scientist electrician and DIY?

A lot of the costs of a real install come from the permitting, doing proper upgrades (you might need a new electrical panel), the warranty, the labor, and other costs.

Every time I browse the DIY solar forums it feels like I see 1 person doing things by code for every 10 people cutting corners or playing loose with the rules. YMMV, but take the DIY cost estimates with a huge grain of salt.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#109

Post by gpm »

eichin wrote: post #102
kolinko wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In central/northern Europe in january solar goves 10% of the output of summer, and you need 3-4x power to heat compared to cooling down in summer.

It is often surprising that most of the US is south of most of Europe (the common reference is that Chicago and Rome are both 42N. The jet stream complicates the effect on overall climate , but latitude is pretty much the only thing that matters for solar power.)

Solar panels are mildly more efficient when colder, the same latitude in an area with similar cloud cover in north America is probably generally slightly better for solar than Europe because it is colder, not sure if it would ever be more than a rounding error though.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#110

Post by moffkalast »

oezi wrote: post #78
duffpkg wrote: post #19

Lifepo4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries for the home are pretty cheap as of today. Power storage for residential use in a 48v metal rackable linkable system with battery management system (BMS) is $89/kwh shipped/duty paid from reputable chinese suppliers CATL/Seplos etc. You have to wait for sea shipping, add $30/kwh if you want to buy it in the US today. From the same suppliers sodium batteries are currently $13…

Current European/German prices for home storage of 2-10kwh are at 400-500 EUR per kwh. https://geizhals.de/?cat=bmseswresp&sort=t&hloc=at&hloc=de&v...

So... about 30k for 60kwh to cover 30kwh daily use with solar charging, and probably another 10k for installation. Hmm yes super cheap, might impulse buy later.
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