Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands • Hacker News Board

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#101

Post by hackernewds » Sun, Apr 28, 2024, 9:08 PM UTC

umeshunni wrote: post #68

jakub_g wrote: post #15

Re: "mounting concern" about the profits of processed food & tobacco companies, here you are also the 2018 classic of the genre: > Goldman Sachs asks in biotech research report: ‘Is curing patients a sustainable business model?’ https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/11/goldman-asks-is-curing-patie...

The actual report (not linked to by CNBC of course) says The potential to deliver “one shot cures” is one of the most attractive aspects of gene therapy, genetically-engineered cell therapy and gene editing. However, such treatments offer a very different outlook with regard to recurring revenue versus chronic therapies, particularly in certain diseases where it is possible to cure a large proportion of the prevalent…

this seems like a valid recommendation

or innovators dilemma upsets or forces the incumbents. the transformer (attention is all you need) model paper did release in 2017 and Google did nothing about it until OpenAI forced their hand

awaiting this happening to pharma as well as new technology reduces the barrier to entry for innovators

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#102

Post by makeitdouble » Sun, Apr 28, 2024, 9:09 PM UTC

glp1guide wrote: post #57

Xenoamorphous wrote: post #9

I'm not very familiar with the approval process for new drugs, but as far as I know it involves some initial step where the safety is assessed, and then the effectiveness. But I don't think either of those are actually long term processes (like, longer than 5 years). So it scares me a bit when something like Ozepmic pops up and tons of people jump on it, without knowing the long term effects that might appear. I read…

Hey don't worry, your fears are mostly unfounded -- GLP1 Receptor Agonists have been an effective treatment method for type 2 diabetes for a very long time. They're well studied, researched and trialed, at this point, and many side effects are known. I'm a bit biased of course (I do a lot of trying to keep up with the research and effects of GLP1 drugs), but I honestly don't think the weight loss scene has seen somet…

Isn't the worry that Ozempic is only "effective and save" as far as all the other weight loss drugs being utter predatory bullshit ?

Last time I looked into it the "loss" is only happening while taking the medication and you get back to normal once you stop, regardless of how long you’ve been taking it. So if stabilizing at a thinner state is your goal, the drug would be mostly useless or you should be ready to take the rest of your life.

Going only a tad too far, it feels like recomming meth for its energizing and diet effects, that's not something we want at wide scale.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#103

Post by hackernewds » Sun, Apr 28, 2024, 9:09 PM UTC

raziel2701 wrote: post #17

Ozempic costs $1000/month (in the US) but $5/month to manufacture [0]. I think if this drug and others are to have a significant anti-consumption effect on other companies it needs to be vastly more accessible, which first requires more accessible healthcare in the US, which is unlikely to happen. Also it's an injection, which raises the barrier. If drugs like these become orally administered and over-the-counter, th…

This reasoning is valid if the first pill costs $10B

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#104

Post by hackernewds » Sun, Apr 28, 2024, 9:09 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #82

cpitman wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currently they cannot manufacture enough to cover demand at $1000/ month. Why would the price come down before they can supply current demand?

> Why would the price come down before they can supply current demand? Because in exchange they could unlock a bulk order from e.g. the U.S. government. That in turn could unlock economies of scale that let them price competitors out of the market.

The govt has already subsidized production through investing in research they've leveraged.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#105

Post by red_trumpet » Sun, Apr 28, 2024, 9:10 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #82

cpitman wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currently they cannot manufacture enough to cover demand at $1000/ month. Why would the price come down before they can supply current demand?

> Why would the price come down before they can supply current demand? Because in exchange they could unlock a bulk order from e.g. the U.S. government. That in turn could unlock economies of scale that let them price competitors out of the market.

Don't they have a patent which makes competition non-existent for the near future?

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#106

Post by Fredej » Sun, Apr 28, 2024, 9:11 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #82

cpitman wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currently they cannot manufacture enough to cover demand at $1000/ month. Why would the price come down before they can supply current demand?

> Why would the price come down before they can supply current demand? Because in exchange they could unlock a bulk order from e.g. the U.S. government. That in turn could unlock economies of scale that let them price competitors out of the market.

They are literally buying up as many factories as they are allowed to do. Money is not the issue - getting access to production lines is.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#107

Post by hackernewds » Sun, Apr 28, 2024, 9:11 PM UTC

jncfhnb wrote: post #73

raziel2701 wrote: post #17

Ozempic costs $1000/month (in the US) but $5/month to manufacture [0]. I think if this drug and others are to have a significant anti-consumption effect on other companies it needs to be vastly more accessible, which first requires more accessible healthcare in the US, which is unlikely to happen. Also it's an injection, which raises the barrier. If drugs like these become orally administered and over-the-counter, th…

I’m reminded of the bit in 1984 where they’re trying to remove the pleasure from orgasms. I don’t entirely disagree that this would be good to make accessible but removing the joy from eating is so bleak

only while administered. this is a feature, not a bug

some people need the kick start to experience the effects of a healthy living

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#108

Post by hackernewds » Sun, Apr 28, 2024, 9:11 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #39

s1k3s wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As Chairman of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP), I am calling on Novo Nordisk to lower the list price of Ozempic – and the related drug Wegovy – in America to no more than what they charge for this drug in Canada. I'm not aware of how legislation works in US but I feel like a senator should have more power than just "calling on" a company?

They do, they can propose and vote on legislation. And some budgetary and people nominating powers.

that seems unconstitutional and also terrible precedent to set. why do any research if you can just piggyback on others?

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#109

Post by JumpCrisscross » Sun, Apr 28, 2024, 9:12 PM UTC

Fredej wrote: post #106

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why would the price come down before they can supply current demand? Because in exchange they could unlock a bulk order from e.g. the U.S. government. That in turn could unlock economies of scale that let them price competitors out of the market.

They are literally buying up as many factories as they are allowed to do. Money is not the issue - getting access to production lines is.

> Money is not the issue - getting access to production lines is

You don’t think having the heft of the U.S. government behind one of those parties will help with that access?

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#110

Post by JumpCrisscross » Sun, Apr 28, 2024, 9:13 PM UTC

red_trumpet wrote: post #105

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why would the price come down before they can supply current demand? Because in exchange they could unlock a bulk order from e.g. the U.S. government. That in turn could unlock economies of scale that let them price competitors out of the market.

Don't they have a patent which makes competition non-existent for the near future?

There are multiple formulations, e.g. Ozempic vs Wegovy.