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'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

theatlantic.com

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Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#101

Post by Dn_Ab »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #11
recursive wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's absolutely correct. Automated cars will have a much bigger effect than iPads. So much time is wasted driving.

This is just blatantly wrong. Yes automated cars will be a huge deal, but discounting the iPad is just prejudice pretending to be insight. The mobile OS experience and the tablet PC are very much the next phase of evolution of the computer. Right now the iPad is trailblazing the way as a very high markup luxury good but even so it's proving to be enormously disruptive. When the second shoe drops on the tablet PC revo…

The third world would not be well served by ipads. How much time have you spent there? Reading is not a common activity or ability. But who knows what 20 years will hold. For what it's worth, Ipads and other tablets are already sold there. Typically, as soon as afforded, the devices are used for facebook, twitter and games. Internet usually turned off due to exorbitant prices.

Arduinos and Raspberry Pis have more potential for really making a difference in the lives of people in said countries. It is very important that the children have devices that are open and frictionless to tinker on and with many user serviceable parts. Framing works for more than words. The right (lack of) packaging will prime curiosity. The imposing closed sleek finish of an ipad is more an object to be admired and treated with care. It would only engage the intellect of the most innately curious.

In an environment with little resources and infrastructure people have to resort to human ingenuity to cobble up solutions that satisfice. A computing device amenable to being cobbled with cheap odds and ends, for disparate scenarios, will have the more readily compounding effect.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#102

Post by sayemm »

b_emery wrote: post #23
JPKab wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars that drive themselves. Distributed power generation. Web connected sensors in everything. You know, things that have a material effect on people's quality of life. As opposed to Facebook.

> things that have a material effect on people's quality of life. As opposed to Facebook. As much as I dislike Facebook, there is some scientific evidence that increasing one's social ties produces measurable improvements to health, including longevity. If Facebook increases social connectivity, which in my limited experience it does, it's not a stretch to suggest that it could materially improve one's quality of lif…

The entire internet population (or at least close to it) binded by one global network -- it's a mistake to think of Facebook as just another social network in the same league as Twitter, Foursquare, etc... rather, it's probably more useful to think of it as an alternative internet, or even an operating system.

Bill Gates and Paul Allen dreamed of putting a personal computer in every home in 1975, and that dream came true over the decades following. Facebook's dream is just beginning and we're going to see big waves in internet, media, telecom, and commerce over the next few decades.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#103

Post by rmATinnovafy »

jluan wrote: post #96
grellas wrote: post #89

Steve Blank is a respected Valley veteran who has written highly insightful and informative materials about the history and development of the Valley (see http://steveblank.com/secret-history/ ) and so his opinion is worthy of note. That said, I have been in the Valley since 1968, have watched its ups and downs professionally since the early 1980s, and can say without question that it is currently bursting at the sea…

I don't think the point you make contradicts Steve Blank's at all; to me, Blank's thesis is that startups in the Valley no longer choose to pursue truly disruptive technological innovation because our ecosystem now almost exclusively rewards areas such as social media, where you have to run as fast as you can just to stay where you are, to the detriment of "hard tech" such as biotech, robotics, and the semiconductors…

There is a growing number of individuals doing hard tech. They just focus on working, and not on getting Likes.

The valley may be full of social media photo sharing people, but don't forget that the Valley still has strong roots on the homebrew side.

For every social app out there, there are ten hackers pushing code on the local HackerSpace.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#104

Post by robot »

If you have doubts about what he means, he is essentially saying this: The state of mobile and social has come to such an advantageous point for startups that it is not feasible for investors to go for the hard, truly disruptive things. And he is very right.

Thanks to Apple products, now you can reach millions of people by writing an app. Due to the viral nature of social apps, you can now expect a useful app to reach for the masses without spending on marketing and advertisement. Can we say the same for anything other than mobile/web and social? No.

Until the social/mobile market matures, we will see each potential founder working on a mobile phone application instead of attacking a non-viral problem with a doubtful market/new technology.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#105

Post by AznHisoka »

robot wrote: post #104

If you have doubts about what he means, he is essentially saying this: The state of mobile and social has come to such an advantageous point for startups that it is not feasible for investors to go for the hard, truly disruptive things. And he is very right. Thanks to Apple products, now you can reach millions of people by writing an app. Due to the viral nature of social apps, you can now expect a useful app to reac…

Have you ever launched an app that reached the masses? What do you even mean by viral nature?

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#106

Post by robot »

AznHisoka wrote: post #105
robot wrote: post #104

If you have doubts about what he means, he is essentially saying this: The state of mobile and social has come to such an advantageous point for startups that it is not feasible for investors to go for the hard, truly disruptive things. And he is very right. Thanks to Apple products, now you can reach millions of people by writing an app. Due to the viral nature of social apps, you can now expect a useful app to reac…

Have you ever launched an app that reached the masses? What do you even mean by viral nature?

A social app has a potential to go viral, e.g. spread by word of mouth or via means built into the application. Spreading to all social contacts for example. You can't do that with a startup involving hardware or anything non-social.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#107

Post by AznHisoka »

robot wrote: post #106
AznHisoka wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you ever launched an app that reached the masses? What do you even mean by viral nature?

A social app has a potential to go viral, e.g. spread by word of mouth or via means built into the application. Spreading to all social contacts for example. You can't do that with a startup involving hardware or anything non-social.

Apps that have gone viral usually have gone viral because of tremendous effort put into marketing before the app was released. You can't expect to just release something in the App Store, have it spam your friend's FB wall, and contacts and expect a million users by next month. It doesn't work that way, though the guys at Techcrunch, and Mashable may give that appearance.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#108

Post by robot »

AznHisoka wrote: post #107
robot wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A social app has a potential to go viral, e.g. spread by word of mouth or via means built into the application. Spreading to all social contacts for example. You can't do that with a startup involving hardware or anything non-social.

Apps that have gone viral usually have gone viral because of tremendous effort put into marketing before the app was released. You can't expect to just release something in the App Store, have it spam your friend's FB wall, and contacts and expect a million users by next month. It doesn't work that way, though the guys at Techcrunch, and Mashable may give that appearance.

I agree with how hard it is to get traction in any application. Let's assume it is an application whose value is increased with the number of people interacting. Then if you are past the initial chicken-egg problem, you can grow exponentially. You cannot do that in any other business. Usually your marketing and sales efforts would remain linearly parallel with your growth.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#109

Post by saraid216 »

maayank wrote: post #53
ajross wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could play games, take pictures, send them to friends, surf the web, chat, "share my life" and meet new people with computers fifteen years ago . The iPad has made that process easier and better, and to some extent cheaper. And it's a great product. But that's not "disruption", it's just plain old improvement.

"I could play games, take pictures, send them to friends, surf the web, chat, "share my life" and meet new people with computers fifteen years ago. The iPad has made that process easier and better, and to some extent cheaper." and more accesible to ordinary people.

That seems to presume that ordinary people have static capabilities needing technologies to move them along. But a huge part of the reason ordinary people are doing these things more than they were 15 years ago is (1) the pervasiveness of those basic technologies has deepened, creating more exposure overall, and (2) people have had time to learn and to help others learn to use them.

Neither of these can be directly linked to the iPad or any tablet as a primary cause.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#110

Post by saraid216 »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #98
kd0amg wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a difference between "makes this already-very-feasible thing a bit more convenient" and "makes this thing feasible."

Right, so cell phones are irrelevant then because when they were introduced it was already already-very-feasible to call people, indeed it happened millions of times a day all across the country, telephone calls were routine. But even though cell phones made a feasible thing even more convenient and easier they were still a very transformative and very lucrative technology.

No, cell phones made it possible to call someone while they weren't at home or at the office. That's extremely important, and the main reason for cellphone adoption. It wasn't for pleasure calls. It was for reliable, anywhere communication.
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