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AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

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Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

College degrees is a bad example to use. Even today, a bachelors degree is highly correlated with a massive earnings boost compared to a high school only education. Sources: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1jqzJ

If every single high school graduate then got a bachelors degree, would their median earnings match the median earnings of the of the bachelors degree group now? It doesn't seem likely. Otherwise we can just mail every single person a bachelors degree certificate in the mail and watch the salaries increase, productivity sore, the economy on permanent boom!

500 years ago literacy commanded a substantial "skills premium" on earnings relative to the larger illiterate population. Today most people in the work force are literate and literacy is not a distinguishing quality for higher earnings. But on a societal level, I don't think that developed nations could be as prosperous as they are today if literacy were as uncommon now as it was 500 years ago.

To relate this to your bachelor's degree example, if everyone earned a bachelor's degree in e.g. physics then the earnings premium for STEM graduates would drop if not vanish. But I expect that society's collective material prosperity would increase. I say "earned" rather than "got mailed a certificate" because getting a certificate without developing the corresponding abilities is not useful.

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

College degrees is a bad example to use. Even today, a bachelors degree is highly correlated with a massive earnings boost compared to a high school only education. Sources: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1jqzJ

I doubt that's the intrinsic value of the degree (a la supply and demand), but rather the mindset, social-economic status, and background of someone that goes to college. (At least in the US)

While having a strong position in social-economic class is indeed influential, data shows even an associate's degree helps increase long term salary.

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cba/annual-earnin...

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#103
post #5

"air traffic controllers were paid a median annual salary of $132,250 in 2022, or nearly four times the $33,380 median annual pay of crossing guards" It's not quite "expertise" that justifies the wage gap, it's supply and demand. Almost anyone can be a crossing guard--not everyone can be an air traffic controller. If AI theoretically could make anyone an air traffic controller, one would expect the salary to collapse…

You see this all the time. Like college degrees for example. They did studies that showed if you got a university degree you would earn X times more than someone who didn't. But that was only the case because a relatively small percentage of people did go to college. Once EVERYONE has a college degree, this doesn't work anymore.

Plus if you have the means to attend college to begin with and then the drive and discipline to graduate, chances are you will also have the resources to establish a career.

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to see that math expanded because I'm not sure I follow. Just because some (even if all) companies want to bleed the world dry, they aren't all colluding. If Tesco put up their prices it's not going to derail my middle class lifestyle, I'll just go shop at lidl instead. If my employer cuts pay in real terms then that's certainly a tougher situation which is why we have a union, but though it may be hassle, m…

> they aren't all colluding The world is mostly inhabited by people who work for a living but mostly run by people who own things for a living. These two sources of income (or capital gains -- heaven forbid we tax our rich like we tax our plebs) lead to highly distinct and often directly opposed objective functions. The extent to which this leads to a self-serving policy spiral for the rich is a function of the degre…

Ok so gp was talking about businesses. You are talking about the fact that money is power which is a fundamental problem, though a different one. Not sure how to solve it but stronger controls on political donations and lobbying would help.

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#105
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That assumes total victory by management over labor. Which is why workers need to be organized. Samuel Gompers, 1890, arguing for an 8-hour day. "What we want to consider is, first, to make our employment more secure, and, secondly, to make wages more permanent, and, thirdly, to give these poor people a chance to work. The laborer has been regarded as a mere producing machine ... but back of labor is the soul of man…

The quote doesn’t make sense, labor is pretty much a commodity for the vast vast majority of people. Almost by definition. I would say at most 1 out of 50 are genuinely really unique in some way, and that’s being generous, the rest of the population are just regular average Joes or not too far off.

So much labor history has been forgotten. Here's the founding document of the International Labor Organization.[1] This was, when it was founded, on a par with the World Trade Organization. The ILO position, mainstream at the time, was that wages are an output, not an input. The purpose of economic activity is to maximize worker wages. Not return on capital.

That few people today even know this was once mainstream is the result of a very effective lobbying campaign started in the early 1970s. Milton Friedman provided the theory, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce providing the money. There was a master plan for this, the Lewis Powell Memorandum.[2] This is where the organized conservative movement came from, from think tanks to talk shows.

[1] https://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=1000:62:0::NO:62:P62_...

[2] https://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/powellmemo/

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

College degrees is a bad example to use. Even today, a bachelors degree is highly correlated with a massive earnings boost compared to a high school only education. Sources: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1jqzJ

If every single high school graduate then got a bachelors degree, would their median earnings match the median earnings of the of the bachelors degree group now? It doesn't seem likely. Otherwise we can just mail every single person a bachelors degree certificate in the mail and watch the salaries increase, productivity sore, the economy on permanent boom!

The bachelors degree is not a piece of paper in the same way that a long resume is not the same as experience gained. Either is useless if they are not representative of an underlying truth.

The point of the experience is that it allows you to produce more value with the same inputs.

To wit: nations with higher educational attainment do not see the averaging that you suggest, instead they see rather remarkable standards of living.

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#107
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "middle class" is "about 20% richer than me" There are better definitions. > Karl Marx You said Voldemort's name! Now he will surely haunt us. In any case, your objective function dramatically changes when you own things for a living rather than work for a living. Many people would call someone with a 1MM retirement portfolio rich, but 4% returns on a 1MM portfolio is $40k/yr and probably isn't going to replace a j…

> There are better definitions. I'm a linguistic descriptivist, not a prescriptivist. This is how I think most use the term, even if there's a more useful term of art in economics or in politics. > You said Voldemort's name! Now he will surely haunt us One might even say that a spectre is haunting Europe… ;P > So the composition of incentives switches from worker-like to owner-like somewhere around $10MM net worth, a…

Sure, and I see the wisdom in it: everyone gains 50 IQ points when they place a bet, so private ownership of the economy means that every section of the economy is owned by a responsible skin-in-the-game party incentivized to maximize value. A few simple rules create distributed intelligence. Cool!

But I also see the dark side. The economic notion of "value" being maximized is actually "wealth weighted value," a tiny but enormously consequential difference. Creating value isn't about doing what people want, it's about doing what rich people want, and rich people mostly want to get paid for being rich. Competition is supposed to keep this in check, but we police competition with the vigor and enthusiasm of a decaffeinated sloth, because that's what the people who own the economy want. When suits brag openly about anticompetitive strategy -- network effects, platform effects, last-mile and two-sided-market dynamics -- and regulators snooze more loudly every day, it's pretty clear that the system is captured.

Not that tech is unique, in fact we are pretty good all things considered. We still provide more value for less money every year. Many sectors have been doing the opposite for decades. Real estate is probably the stinkiest sector, where the incumbents are perpetually voting for dysfunction to pump the value of their own properties. Health care has similarly been squeezing its own training pipeline for the explicit, stated-out-loud purpose of pumping salaries, and now that boomers are aging this is going to get spectacularly ripe. None of this is wise stewardship, but it follows directly from incentives and power. Anyone who wants to claim that capitalism produces systematically good incentives had better have a really good answer for this cartel shit, because it rules the economy.

It's not just the economy, though. Capital interests are in the driver's seat in government as well. The extent to which tax policy has been pushed away from the capital gains loop and towards the wage-labor loop is almost comical. We brought women into the workforce without "meeting in the middle" on aggregate hours so now the average couple isn't allowed to raise a baby which shockingly produced a fertility crisis. Our trade policy has been re-geared so heavily to pump assets and dump exports that Alexander Hamilton is spinning in his grave next to the 30 year old opioid addict who is in his own grave because said policy changes sent his job overseas so that rich people could benefit from the higher stock returns.

In terms of the capital/labor pendulum, we've actually been here before, after the industrial revolution failed to net trickle down. I don't think we need glorious *ist revolution, but I do think we need another Roosevelt.

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#108
post #97
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we can also say that we expect air traffic controllers generate at least their $132k/ year in value This is an important distinction that the author misses. People are paid according to their value to the economy, not their value to society. So, even if the jobs were similar in expertise, the crossing guard would likely not make as much because the ATC provides more to the economy. *FWIW, I'm not saying this is mor…

Nobody is paid according to their value. They are paid according to their leverage. PhDs provide an immense amount of value but have very little leverage. Workers who unionize and use their power effectively have more leverage than those who do not. Land owners contribute precisely 0 value but hold leverage in the form of a legal title.

I would agree, but your statement makes it sound as if they are disjointed. You need to have both.

(I would also push back a bit that a PhD adds immense value. Many that do get paid well via IP and start-ups, but that’s a better interface with the economy. There are many in my experience that add little more than a credential)

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#109
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we can also say that we expect air traffic controllers generate at least their $132k/ year in value This is an important distinction that the author misses. People are paid according to their value to the economy, not their value to society. So, even if the jobs were similar in expertise, the crossing guard would likely not make as much because the ATC provides more to the economy. *FWIW, I'm not saying this is mor…

Disagree. People are paid based on value-extraction, not value-generation. They are correlated, but are vastly different metrics.

Care to elaborate on the details of the distinction? I think I get the gist, but I’m not sure how much it matters in practice (given the above comment about leverage).

E.g., a hedge fund manager is paid handsomely for if they extract value, but that same extraction is value generation for their clients. It feels like two sides of the same zero sum coin.

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

College degrees is a bad example to use. Even today, a bachelors degree is highly correlated with a massive earnings boost compared to a high school only education. Sources: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1jqzJ

If every single high school graduate then got a bachelors degree, would their median earnings match the median earnings of the of the bachelors degree group now? It doesn't seem likely. Otherwise we can just mail every single person a bachelors degree certificate in the mail and watch the salaries increase, productivity sore, the economy on permanent boom!

Don't you think it's correlated to the person having an education and skillset that someone who didn't earn the degree would normally not have?
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