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As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

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101–110 of 367 posts

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#101
post #6

This reminds me of the excellent series "Blueprint for Armageddon" in Dan Carlin's Hardcore History podcast [1]. It's about the First World War. WWI tends to get less attention than WW2 and while there are good reasons why we focus on the atrocities of WW2, in some ways WWI was far more devastating. The artillery production mentioned here reminds me of how scales changed from the beginning to the end of the war. At t…

I’m a bit surprised that you didn’t mention drone surveillance, which apparently makes offense even more difficult?

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#102

I really really enjoyed the piece[0], but boy, you think this is bad, wait until we're exchanging missiles with a peer military. Hundreds, maybe even thousands, of missiles[1] in the air at the same time, in a kaleidoscopic dazzle of altitudes, velocities, sensor profiles. Every combat simulation seems to turn into what you might call a "magazine fight" - i.e., who runs out of bullets first. We'll probably burn throu…

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Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I might be a hopeless optimist, but I don't think a USN/USAF/USMC vs PLAAF in SCS/Taiwan situation would escalate to nukes. At least, I don't think it's likely . Definitely a nonzero chance, maybe a coin toss, but Taiwan isn't core territory for either Power. Invasion, now . . well, there's the magic power that comes with having 'em. No one invades you, ever. Also,outside factors could change the math here, like a me…

But that only means that the US would give up on Taiwan before the fight would get any serious (from USA's point of view). I also kind of doubt that China is going to try, at least in the next decade or so, because those so far irreplaceable chip factories are almost certainly booby trapped and are a critical piece of the global economy, so China would be sabotaging itself first. (And Xi has probably a long way to go…

I don't know how to parse this comment. Why would the US give up on Taiwan "before it gets serious". If the US is involved in a shooting conflict in the Taiwanese strait, they either win or lose it conventionally but if it happens at all then nukes aren't getting involved unless mainland territorial invasions go on the table - and they're not going to.

The reality is the US would very much like to avoid having to negotiate that situation: far easier to arm Taiwan to the teeth with AA and anti-shipping missiles, and let them take care of it.

EDIT: It's also worth noting nukes aren't the only deterrent forces. It's one thing to "know" that the US Navy isn't going to get involved...it's quite another to conduct an invasion of an ally while well inside the missile engagement range of the US Navy on the assumption that's actually true.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, these pacifist-style comments are really tone deaf and out of touch. Yes, we'd all prefer peace and leaving each other alone, but if some other nation comes to kill your countrymen and replace your democracy with a puppet, suddenly just relying on pacifist ideals doesn't work well anymore. Most of the time, these commenters don't want to engage with reality as it currently exists. If you ask them what exactly y…

Stupid politics and not enough diplomacy didn't work there. https://www.mearsheimer.com/public_talks/why-is-ukraine-the-...

By diplomacy he means letting Putin have what he wants. The fact is Russia repeatedly signed agreements saying no to a divided Europe and giving countries a free choice in who to ally with.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#105
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me skip over a bunch of your points and just get to the end. Would any of your theoretical compromises have satisfied the Cold Warriors in the Kremlin? These people literally believe that NATO is coming to invade Moscow. How do you negotiate with someone who lives in a place so disconnected from reality?

It is worse than that - No one in the Kremlin believes that NATO is coming for them. There are many proofs, but one is that Russia PULLED troops away from the Finnish border when Finland joined. That line is merely one of dozens of bullshirt excuses they trot out to claim victimhood and "justify" their relentless aggression.

Yep. The actual answer is they believe the West is weak and easily bored. The Russian government has never cared about dead Russians, and believes just waiting us out will win them what they need at a cost they don't care about.

I mean, it's going to absolutely wreck Russia, but again: the Russian government for basically the last 1,000 years sees the citizen as a resource to be expended for it's greatness.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#106
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm relatively sure the search/track radar doesn't go with individual bullets, but yeah, you have a high PK (percentage of kill) when defending against one, two missiles. But that's not how they'll be employed - your problem is attack mass and engagement time. You'll have maybe a swarm of cheap drones, a few dozen Mig-21s revamped for drone control, a few incoming guided ballistic missiles at mach 7, fifty or so subs…

Towards the end of WW2 the US Navy got pretty good at anti-aircraft gunnery. The Japanese responded by sending their "guided missiles" (kamikazes) to attack in column formation. By the time the target ship shot down the attacking aircraft at the head of the column the others shielded behind it would be that much closer. Often the last one would get through to score a hit. The weapons are faster and more lethal now, b…

At this point, I think the burden of proof is on anybody who thinks a serious saturation attack on a carrier group (hundreds of missiles and/or decoys per wave, multiplied by multiple waves) from a peer adversary wouldn't work.

If a conflict with Russia or China breaks out, I think the first thing that happens is aircraft carriers are going to immediately become obsoleted by antiship missiles as quickly as battleships were obsoleted by air attacks in WWII. Probably even more quickly.

I sure hope I'm wrong. And even more than that I hope we never find out.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, these pacifist-style comments are really tone deaf and out of touch. Yes, we'd all prefer peace and leaving each other alone, but if some other nation comes to kill your countrymen and replace your democracy with a puppet, suddenly just relying on pacifist ideals doesn't work well anymore. Most of the time, these commenters don't want to engage with reality as it currently exists. If you ask them what exactly y…

Stupid politics and not enough diplomacy didn't work there. https://www.mearsheimer.com/public_talks/why-is-ukraine-the-...

Mearsheimer is literally on Russian payroll. His works have received financial support from Russian government through the so-called Valdai club.

Andrei Kozyrev, the minister of foreign affairs of the Russian Federation (1990-1996), had this to say about the purpose of the club and people like Mearsheimer:

  I ask Kozyrev about a debate that has roiled the American foreign policy establishment in the leadup to this war. Did NATO go too far? On the contrary, he thinks it didn’t go far enough.

  “One thing among many I admire about the American character is your ability to look into what you did and to be very, very critical of your mistakes,” Kozyrev says, in what I’m right to assume is a slightly philosophical preliminary to an incoming polemic. “Like when Congress unanimously passed a ban on any kind of lynching. It’s a little late, but it’s important because it’s a form of national repentance. That’s what Russia doesn’t do. Russia doesn’t repent. It hasn’t really for Stalinism or for cutting a deal with Hitler. Instead, it blames Ukraine for Nazism, which is ridiculous.”

  As to the pundits and policy mandarins who think the West sleepwalked into this crisis, which now threatens to bleed out beyond the borders of Russia and Belarus and Ukraine, Kozyrev thinks that’s simply nonsense. “Unfortunately, there are many wishful thinkers especially in academia here and intellectuals who have ties to Russia. They go to Valdai [a Russian think tank forum]. They consume caviar and vodka and are treated like kings by those who exist solely to manipulate them. This argument about NATO is just propaganda fed to Americans who then regurgitate it in their opinion and journal essays. The only real analysts who come here from Russia are dissidents. The rest are front people, just like in the Soviet Union, and they manufacture Western champions of the Putin regime, chumps and useful idiots.”
I recommend reading it in full: https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/russias-ex-foreign-ministe...

His longer account of Russia-NATO relations is also quite a bit different from how Russian lapdogs try to depict the history in 2024: https://transatlanticrelations.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/0...

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#108
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that only means that the US would give up on Taiwan before the fight would get any serious (from USA's point of view). I also kind of doubt that China is going to try, at least in the next decade or so, because those so far irreplaceable chip factories are almost certainly booby trapped and are a critical piece of the global economy, so China would be sabotaging itself first. (And Xi has probably a long way to go…

I don't know how to parse this comment. Why would the US give up on Taiwan "before it gets serious". If the US is involved in a shooting conflict in the Taiwanese strait, they either win or lose it conventionally but if it happens at all then nukes aren't getting involved unless mainland territorial invasions go on the table - and they're not going to. The reality is the US would very much like to avoid having to neg…

Are those missiles getting to Taiwan any time soon though? It seems current politics on the island is still uber polite oh we are China, no need for drastic measures, etc. or is that changing fast?

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#109
The author appeared surprised that 3d printing would not help. Is this a common misconception? I always figured it was common knowledge that 3d printing is a great prototyping tool. tolerable in some low-rate processes, and terrible in a high volume process.

Re: As much as you ever wanted to know about 155M artillery shell production

#110
post #16

I don't think it's a "problem" that we don't have enough munitions to launch at other humans. It's a testament to our time that there aren't incentives for manufacturing death.

It's a huge problem when an army with a larger amount wants to take your land, abduct your children, kill anyone who speaks and writes in your language, and tortures all your leaders to death. All told, better to have fewer shells in general, but in particular, one must have at least as many shells as the murderous invaders that want to kill you. And towards that end, the more that Ukraine destroys Russia's military,…

I don't disagree, but that's not the case of the United States. The invasion of Ukraine caught the western arms industry by surprise.
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