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Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

kevinchen.co

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Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#101

Post by ben_w »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #63
Edman274 wrote: post #26

I often see logic along the lines of "if autonomous vehicles are safer than people, then let's deploy them" and that logic straight-up does not fly in the real world. In the real world, among the techno-pessimists, that is an outrageously low bar. Most accidents and deaths that happen because of human drivers occur because the driver was doing something illegal, which means the bar that we have for even humans is hig…

> we wouldn't allow someone to be an Uber or Lyft or truck driver if they were candid and said "I'm going to text on my phone, and be drunk driving and sleepy and distracted as often as the average motorist" Half the taxi and Uber drivers in New York are perpetually on a phone call, and frequently interacting with their phones.

I'll take your word for it (not being an American and only having visited NYC once), but even then most of the rules of the road are… not perfectly enforced. I suspect if the rules were perfectly enforced, the only humans allowed to drive would be those who actually don't.

I suspect — no, I hope — that anyone who admits in advance that they intend to break the rules, won't get a license.

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#102

Post by ZeroGravitas »

bluGill wrote: post #100
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #91

With new markets you often want to target a small niche, I've always thought that relatively slow moving road trains travelling at night would be a good place to start. Air resistance means slower speeds are more efficient (you don't need to worry about human driver needing paid per hour or limited by regulations). Less other traffic at night, but (presumably) sensors can be designed to work well in these situations.…

Trucks pay for more than air resistance though. Last I talked to a trucker their computer was set at 68mph because the company had data showing that was the most efficient speed. Engines get more fuel efficient the more load they are under. There is also the constant load of the lights. With autonomous trucks the computer/sensors is source of constant load.

Yep, and efficiently using the human driver is probably a part of that calculation, nudging it upwards.

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#104

Post by tempest_ »

Edman274 wrote: post #81
kevinchen wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree achieving human safety equivalent is the minimum bar. Ex: We can all agree that if your system is below human safety, it is definitely unacceptable. That’s not the argument being presented though. For example Waymo claims to exceed human performance by a large margin: https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperfor... (Again, one may disagree about the methodology or the conclusions of the study.…

Yeah, I should clarify that my response is in anticipation of the comment sections I often see on hackernews about self driving cars, rather than arguments from the self driving car companies themselves. Waymo won't say "we're slightly better than people, let us on your roadways" but I feel like every time I see something about self driving on Hackernews there's a handful of commenters taking the hyper-utilitarian vi…

Also isnt waymo only operating in Pheonix and California where the weather is always nice?

What happens when it snows ?

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#105

Post by itsoktocry »

coryrc wrote: post #93
Havoc wrote: post #69

Yes trucks slow down slower than cars but that's just physics. You've got the exact same problem with humans driving under say rainy or foggy conditions. If anything driverless helps dramatically on this front. If you can run trucks 24/7 without stopping then you can cut their speed say 33% or whatever and still come out on top. You can also adjust the cargo to reduce stopping distance - use autonomous truckers for t…

Adding more wheels does not reduce stopping distance.

Doesn't it though? More rolling resistance and braking surface area?

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#106

Post by Edman274 »

jdewerd wrote: post #36
Edman274 wrote: post #26

I often see logic along the lines of "if autonomous vehicles are safer than people, then let's deploy them" and that logic straight-up does not fly in the real world. In the real world, among the techno-pessimists, that is an outrageously low bar. Most accidents and deaths that happen because of human drivers occur because the driver was doing something illegal, which means the bar that we have for even humans is hig…

So it's OK to have more deaths so long as we can punish someone with no expectation that doing so will fix the problem? I suspect you are right, but I don't think it reflects well on us.

I think a way to think about it is that we (at a societal level) wouldn't accept a desk calculator to be sold as a consumer product if it did correct arithmetic almost all of the time but then would spit out a close but wrong answer 1 time out of 1000, even if that would be significantly better than the average person doing arithmetic. Our expectation would be that it could (and should) perform flawlessly. If our technological progress was such that the only calculator we could ever hope to produce would still have that kind of error 1 time in 1000, would it be unethical to prevent that from being sold? That's hard to say!

One of the heuristics built into us (because we're mortal beings living beings in a competitive, historically resource-poor environment) is that we trust the devil we know more than the devil we don't, and so unless there's a strongly compelling reason to trust autonomous driving devices a lot more than humans, there will be some inertia against using them, even if the calculations are that it will save X number of lives. I mean, inherent in that calculation is a level of uncertainty and people don't necessarily trust that number, because they don't have a reason to trust it, because they haven't really seen enough to trust it. Why take a company's word for it that it's safer when they have a financial incentive to do some creative stuff to get their marketing pitch? I would say that if you feel it doesn't reflect well on us, it's because it hasn't been thought about enough.

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#107

Post by BobaFloutist »

sva_ wrote: post #92

I've been observing that AI tools often don't really replace people, but rather amplify the amount of work that a single individual can do. In that way, rather than seeking to replace truck drivers, it might first be more useful to make it possible that one driver can navigate two trucks in tandem, and later perhaps more. The largest issue with autonomous driving seems to be the ~20% edge cases that may occur, and ha…

> two trucks in tandem, and later perhaps more.

Or we could put them on tracks and physically attach them to one another.

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#108

Post by FooBarBizBazz »

hinkley wrote: post #49
Edman274 wrote: post #26

I often see logic along the lines of "if autonomous vehicles are safer than people, then let's deploy them" and that logic straight-up does not fly in the real world. In the real world, among the techno-pessimists, that is an outrageously low bar. Most accidents and deaths that happen because of human drivers occur because the driver was doing something illegal, which means the bar that we have for even humans is hig…

The bar for commercial driving should definitely be higher than for “civilian”. But I think the bar for civilian is also woefully out of date now. Giant trucks should require a commercial license. Make it easier to get than a delivery truck license, but weed out the soccer moms and bring back the station wagon. If you’re a professional tree trimmer, general contractor, or a forester, renewing your license is on the c…

This is a great idea and the first I've heard of it. Set a maximum weight of 5,000 lbs for an ordinary license. Minivans will come in just under the line. Small SUVs like the CRV or RAV4 will be allowed, as will small trucks like the Ford Maverick. Indeed, most of those vehicles are under 4,000 lbs. Even some larger SUVs like the Honda Pilot or (just barely) the Toyota 4runner get under the bar. Even a low-specced F-150. But nothing bigger than that.

Truth is, I'd prefer the bar at 4,000 lbs, which would limit us to Camrys and CRVs, but 5,000 would really allow just about any reasonable vehicle.

And big heavy EVs with massive acceleration are just too powerful for somebody who's got a Starbucks in one hand, a cell phone in the other, their knee on the wheel, and shouting kids in the back seat. "Pedal misapplication" will go tragic really fast.

5,000 lb limit.

Sincerely,

A Pedestrian

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#109

Post by tempest_ »

ben_w wrote: post #101
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we wouldn't allow someone to be an Uber or Lyft or truck driver if they were candid and said "I'm going to text on my phone, and be drunk driving and sleepy and distracted as often as the average motorist" Half the taxi and Uber drivers in New York are perpetually on a phone call, and frequently interacting with their phones.

I'll take your word for it (not being an American and only having visited NYC once), but even then most of the rules of the road are… not perfectly enforced. I suspect if the rules were perfectly enforced, the only humans allowed to drive would be those who actually don't. I suspect — no, I hope — that anyone who admits in advance that they intend to break the rules, won't get a license.

I mean just look at how popular automated enforcement like speed and red light cameras.

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#110

Post by SoftTalker »

crazygringo wrote: post #33
Edman274 wrote: post #26

I often see logic along the lines of "if autonomous vehicles are safer than people, then let's deploy them" and that logic straight-up does not fly in the real world. In the real world, among the techno-pessimists, that is an outrageously low bar. Most accidents and deaths that happen because of human drivers occur because the driver was doing something illegal, which means the bar that we have for even humans is hig…

> but I really don't feel like society will accept anything other than trucks / vehicles that are able to operate under all conditions Trucks are different because they're just for transportation of goods. As challenging weather arrives they can just wait at the nearest rest stop, pull over on the shoulder, etc. Your shipping will be delayed, but outside of that I don't think society will care. Totally acceptable as…

There are way more trucks on the road than will fit in parking at rest areas, and simply parking on the shoulder is a hazard in itself, which is why trucks are required to set out warning triangles, etc. when they have to do it.
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